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Will Barton is exactly the kind of player one of the team’s youngsters should beat out for a starting role this season. He’s had a kind of journeyman’s career, though without much journeying — two-and-a-half seasons with the Portland Trailblazers followed by seven-and-a-half with the Denver Nuggets.
Barton first cracked average in my PPA metric at age 27 — his sixth season in the league. He followed that with an injury-plagued year in 2018-19. He appeared in just 43 games, and managed a 71 PPA — down from 113 the previous season.
PPA pegs his best season as 2019-20, which was Barton’s age 29 season. He posted a 145 PPA (average is 100 and higher is better), which included solid all-around numbers, including about average offensive efficiency on about average usage.
Last season at 31, Barton started 71 games for the Nuggets, and posted a solid 115 PPA. His season was a lot like his career as a whole — subpar efficiency (about four points per 100 possessions below average) on about average usage. For the most part, he was pretty average across the board. One exception was playmaking — 6.0 assists per 100 team possessions against just 2.7 turnovers.
Here’s a look at some of the stats I use when evaluating players (box score stats are per 100 team possessions, unless otherwise noted):
Barton is a decent-but-aging veteran who’s entering a contract year and will be motivated to earn one more contract. That could set up an interesting and competitive training camp, as he dukes it out with guys like Deni Avdija, Corey Kispert and Rui Hachimura for a starting role. My guess: Barton wins it and opens the season as the team’s SF.
But we’re not here for prediction, we’re here for Doppelgängers. For those unfamiliar, my Statistical Doppelgänger Machine works by comparing a player’s performance across 14 different categories that include age, playing time, pace-neutral box score stats and scores from my PPA metric. All that’s rolled up into a single score that (in theory) provides a list of NBA players since 1977-78 with similar production at a similar age.
As noted, several of Barton’s comps were excellent players in decline. All were at least decent in their comp years. In Washington, Barton will be plenty motivated to have a good season to try and stick around the NBA a few more years.
Next up: Delon Wright.
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