There are very few countries that can build an entirely new class of submarine without the rest of the world knowing. Submarine technologies and specifications are often secret, but the mere existence of the submarine isn’t. Except in North Korea, where the first we know of a new submarine may be when it shows up in satellite images. This is exactly what has happened.
A recent satellite image, taken August 7, clearly shows the new submarine on the quay at Sinpo, … [+]
North Korea probably possesses the largest fleet of submarines in the world, but they are mostly old and technologically basic. Despite this they continue to pose a threat other any country operating off the isolated country. Any new class will be watched closely by intelligence agencies and its capabilities assessed.
We do not have an official name for the new North Korean Navy submarine yet. In my analysis I will provisionally label it the Sinpo-D Class. This is in reference to the secretive submarine building and test facility where it has been seen. The previous unexpected type, now known as the Gorae Class, was initially labeled Sinpo-B Class for this same reason. Sinpo-C would be a modified Romeo class submarine converted to carry ballistic missiles.
The new type was first reported, simply as an ‘Unusual object,’ by North Korean monitoring group 38 North on May 29. My own initial assessment was that it was likely to be a new class of midget submarine or extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicle (XLUUV). Since then it has been possible to gather additional satellite images and slowly build a clearer picture of this new submarine. There has yet to be any announcement by North Korea. South Korean and Western intelligence agencies have also been silent.
I stand by my initial assessment that it could be either a regular crewed submarine or an uncrewed robot submarine (aka XLUUV). However, I now consider a crewed midget submarine more likely for two main reasons.
Firstly it has a distinct sail, meaning the raised fairing we are used to seeing in the middle of a submarine. One use for this is to allow the crew to safely enter and exit the submarine at sea without it being flooded by waves. So it is an indication of crew access.
And secondly because the technology involved in an XLUUV project would be so much more difficult. North Korea has limited resources and crewed types are likely to be more reliable at meeting their needs.
However some XLUUV designs do have the sail anyway just to carry the masts and snorkel (for a diesel generator) so the XLUUV option cannot be ruled out purely because of the external form. Additionally, Iran has recently revealed a low-tech XLUUV design. These projects might be related in general terms but they are almost certainly not identical. The Iranian XLUUV has a much smaller ‘sail’ and is smaller overall. But if Iran can, North Korea can. North Korea did, after all, help Iran set up their submarine programs.
The new class of North Korean submarine with the Iranian XLUUV (extra-large uncrewed underwater … [+]
Either way it is much smaller than regular types. Such small craft have their own strengths and weaknesses. They are well suited to operating inshore, and of course they are cheaper. They can only carry a small weapons load, limited sonar, and have a short range. North Korea has a long history of building midget submarines and has operated them aggressively against South Korea in the past.
Their effectiveness was brought into sharp focus on March 26, 2010. The South Korean warship ROKS Cheonan was blown in two by a torpedo. A North Korean MS-29 Yono Class midget submarine is believed to have been the launch platform. The new type is likely to be similar to the MS-29, although significantly smaller still.
This new submarine isn’t yet in the books, but it can now be considered a fact. For the moment we can call it Sinpo-D, and hopefully soon new information or even photos may appear. Watch this space.