Markets bet on beneficent BoE

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets

By Stella Qiu, Australia Economics & Markets Correspondent

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All eyes are on the Bank of England today, now that the Bank of Japan delivered its second interest rate hike in 17 years and the U.S. Federal Reserve gave its clearest hint that it could lower rates in September.

The majority of economists expect Britain’s central bank to cut rates from their 16-year high. Markets put the chance at a more restrained 58%, with the doubt not surprising given policymakers have not spoken publicly for more than two months due to rules in the run-up to Britain’s July 4 election. 

The Bank of England building is reflected in a window, in London, Britain July 3, 2024. REUTERS/Maja Smiejkowska

The uncertainty has weighed on European assets a little whereas Asian shares have mostly rallied, tracking a technology-driven rebound on Wall Street.

European shares are poised for a subdued open, with the FTSE futures up 0.3% and EUROSTOXX 50 futures flat.

Also due later on Thursday are manufacturing surveys for the UK, Germany and France as well as unemployment data for the euro zone. Any softness there would help build the case for another rate cut in Europe.

In Asia, the yen rallied to 4-1/2-month highs but soon ran into resistance. Still, the upward trend remained intact on expectations for more central bank rate hikes, sending the Nikkei 2.6% lower.

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

Chinese shares also turned lower after a private survey showed the manufacturing sector shrank in July, adding to doubt about the country’s growth momentum.

Elsewhere, stocks basked in tech euphoria though it remains to be seen whether their extraordinary comeback can be sustained.

Nvidia surged 13% while earnings results from Meta exceeded expectations, pushing its shares up 7% after the bell. Results from Apple and Amazon will be ones to watch later in the day.

One thing investors are sure of is that a rate cut from the Fed in September – be it 25 basis points or even 50 – will underpin risk sentiment.

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