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As November’s midterm elections grow near, murmurs of who will run for president in 2024 — and how successful they will be — are getting louder.
Several politicians have fueled 2024 speculation by flocking to battleground states like Iowa for banquets and public appearances. Potential presidential contenders have met with megadonors, released passionate ads and mobilized political action committees — while polls test the waters to see who sinks and who swims.
In the era of never-ending campaigns, both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump’s teams have hinted at intentions to declare 2024 bids sooner than a usual announcement in the New Year. But official candidacy brings looming restrictions on politicians’ war chests.
The at-least 20 politicians who’ve been rumored to have 2024 ambitions have raised over $591 million since January 2021 through their aligned political operations, which include super PACs, leadership PACs and congressional reelection campaigns.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) leads the potential candidate list in fundraising, followed by Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and then Trump.
Trump and his allies have raised over $131 million since January 2021. The money comes from groups aligned with the former president, including over $103.7 million in fundraising by his leadership PAC, Save America.
That amount is typically only raised by national party groups, with the Republican National Committee at nearly $260 million raised so far this year. DeSantis tops that number with over $174 million raised by his aligned political operations, and Pritzker follows with over $133 million raised, $132 million of which he self-funded.
Trump’s campaign raked in over $773.9 million during his unsuccessful 2020 reelection bid, a number dwarfed by the over $1 billion Biden raised. Now, Trump’s political operation takes the lead, with Biden for President reporting $11.8 million raised.
The Washington Post reported in July that two Trump advisers said the former president was eyeing a September announcement date for his 2024 bid.
That was before the FBI’s Aug. 8 search of his Mar-a-Lago resort for classified presidential documents. Now Trump faces an investigation by the House Committee on Oversight and Reform and could be indicted under the Espionage Act.
Announcing a 2024 bid could make it harder for the Department of Justice to indict Trump as a candidate for office. But the moment he declares, he loses control over his unprecedented war chest.
Once candidates register an official campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission, they can no longer directly coordinate with super PACs or use funds in leadership PACs toward their campaign for office. Federal law requires candidates to register and file financial reports when raising or spending more than $5,000.
This means when Trump registers with the FEC, he can no longer directly finance seemingly campaign-related activities using Save America PAC money.
Campaign Legal Center’s Director of Federal Campaign Finance Reform Saurav Ghosh told OpenSecrets that candidates can forgo public acknowledgements for greater financial freedom through “exploratory activities” that “test the waters” of candidacy.
“[Politicians] are able to travel, give speeches, network with important party figures and donors, [and] raise funds in vast excess of what they’ll be able to do once they’re bound by the requirements and limitations for candidates,” Ghosh, a former enforcement attorney at the FEC, said. “And they’re doing all of that with a pretty clear goal of becoming president.”
GOP politicians build momentum
DeSantis is on pace to break the gubernatorial fundraising record. The Florida governor’s reelection campaign and state-level PAC, Friends of Ron DeSantis, raked in over $174 million with large checks from the Republican Governors Association, the Florida Republican Party and conservative political group Club for Growth. DeSantis also received over $106,000 from Disney.
The Florida governor, who already set a record for gubernatorial fundraising without candidate self-financing, has downplayed his 2024 prospects. While DeSantis has said the media is “just speculating,” he continues to build a broad national base and tour battleground states.
Ready for Ron, a group formed to draft DeSantis as a candidate for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, asked the FEC in May if they could share a list of over 58,000 supporters with DeSantis to encourage him to run. A memorandum submitted this month argues the commission can’t prohibit these activities while DeSantis isn’t a federal candidate or testing the waters.
Trump’s former vice president, Mike Pence, has made appearances in New Hampshire and Iowa ahead of the midterms and has said he would consider running in the new year. His 501(c)(4), Advancing American Freedom, has reported $18 million in contributions according to Axios.
GOP politicians who have also indicated potential interest in a 2024 run include Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R).
Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R-Ark.) told The Washington Post in August that he will wait until November before announcing whether he will put his hat in the ring.
“Governor Hutchinson is focused on delivering results for the people of Arkansas through the remainder of his term. Any decision on the potential run for President will be decided after his final term is complete,” Sheayln Sowers, spokesperson for Hutchinson, told OpenSecrets in a statement.
When asked for comment on Hutchinson’s America Strong and Free PAC Inc. raising over $126,000 since January 2021, Hutchinson’s chief political strategist said the governor has used the federal PAC funds to support candidates across the nation who share his vision.
The runner-up in the party’s 2016 primary, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said he will “wait and see” if Trump runs before he makes a decision. Cruz has raised over $16.7 million from his Senate reelection campaign.
In response to a request for comment on the senator’s fundraising and if he has an intention to run in 2024, spokesman Steve Guest said Cruz is grateful for donations and “works each and every day to fight back against the disastrous Biden agenda.”
Not everyone in the party is viewing the decision as a question of if Trump runs or not.
Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R), who is term-limited and isn’t up for reelection this year, has said he wouldn’t be dissuaded from running for president if Trump launched his campaign, and he hinted at the competition Trump will face from DeSantis.
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News in April that any decision about 2024 will be his and his alone. Pompeo has run digital ads in Iowa and South Carolina advocating to maintain “our religious freedom and our right to pray.”
While Pompeo served as a close adviser to Trump, his Champion American Values PAC — which has raised over $6 million since January 2021 — has endorsed midterm candidates running against the former president’s picks.
Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), a leader in the House investigation into the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, is a possible Republican contender who’s been outspoken against Trump. Cheney’s August concession speech after losing a GOP primary to Trump-endorsed Harriet Hageman indicated a continued campaign against the former president.
“This primary election is over,” Cheney said in the speech. “But now the real work begins.”
Cheney’s campaign operation has since turned into a PAC, The Great Task, and she’s acknowledged that she’s thinking about mounting a presidential campaign.
Democratic primary field remains uncertain
The Democratic presidential primary in 2024 remains uncertain given many Democrats’ apprehension to run if Biden seeks reelection.
The president told ABC News’ David Muir last December that he’s planning to run again as long as he’s in good health. Biden allies said last month that he is preparing to launch a reelection bid after November’s midterm elections.
This could pit the president back against Trump, a rematch of 2020 when Biden won narrowly with 51.3% of the vote. But recent polling has shown that Biden faces doubts inside his own party.
A New York Times/Siena College poll from July shows that 64% of Democratic voters would prefer someone other than Biden in the 2024 presidential race. Respondents’ reasons for a different candidate are diverse, including Biden’s age.
Multiple Democratic politicians polling well with voters haven’t even made clear their intentions to run if Biden officially declares candidacy.
Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg tied with Biden in a July poll of New Hampshire Democrats. The 2020 presidential candidate who gained recognition as “Mayor Pete” has dodged questions about a 2024 bid.
Pritzker has said he won’t challenge Biden in a 2024 primary, despite making recent trips to Florida and New Hampshire. His reelection campaign has raised over $133 million, with Pritzker self-funding over $132 million.
J.B. for Governor Communications Director Natalie Edelstein told OpenSecrets in a statement that the governor has repeatedly said he supports Biden’s plans to run in 2024.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has expressed the same sentiment, and his longtime colleague and 2020 opponent Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) has even gone so far as to rule out a 2024 bid, saying she intends to seek Senate re-election.
Other possible Democratic candidates include a suite of governors – California Gov. Gavin Newsom, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Democratic Sens. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Cory Booker of New Jersey have also been in the news for visiting battleground states but have tampered down chatter about 2024.
The road ahead
Time will tell how long politicians continue exploratory activities before making the move to register with the FEC and officially begin the road to the White House.
Exploratory campaigning activities persist ahead of November’s midterms — but the strategy has come under fire.
American Bridge 21st Century, a Democratic super PAC, filed a lawsuit against the FEC in July arguing the commission has not taken action against Trump as he raises big money to promote a likely 2024 bid without adhering to campaign finance laws.
It’s the first lawsuit of its kind, but Ghosh said he doesn’t think it will be the last this cycle. A federal grand jury just recently issued subpoenas in an investigation examining the inner workings of Trump’s Save America PAC operation.
“The calculus is very straightforward on the potential upside,” Ghosh said. “You get advantages, [you] get ahead of your competitors in the race for president, and the downside is the very slim, very unlikely possibility that the FEC is actually going to enforce the law. I think most of us in that situation would say, well, there’s not a lot of incentives here to comply.”
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