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In the Democracy Institute’s exclusive eve of election polling for Express.co.uk, Connecticut – just north of New York City on the eastern seaboard – is the outside chance for the Republicans to increase their number of Senators to 57. If the projected result has the Republicans “within five points” of the Democrats, “it will be a big night for Trump and the GOP (Republicans)”, Democracy Institute director Patrick Basham believes.
Officially nicknamed the “Constitution State” – because it was the first US state to have a written constitution before the American Revolution – Connecticut is relatively small with a population of just over 3.5 million people.
But its impact on US politics could be huge if it elects Leora Levy, the Republican candidate endorsed by Donald Trump who even held a fundraiser for her at his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida.
She would be the ultimate example that even safe Democrat seats are not immune to the Trump effect.
But Connecticut is not the only place Republicans will be hoping the Trump effect performs its magic.
Donald Trump has endorsed Leora Levy who could be in line for a shock win (Image: GETTY)
US state by state poll closing times (Eastern time add 5 hours for GMT) (Image: DEMOCRACY INSTITUTE)
Others will be looking out for Colorado (2am GMT, 9pm ET) and Washington state (4am GMT, 11pm ET) which have also become unexpected possible wins for the Republicans – though not as shocking as Connecticut.
If won by the Republicans, it would cement their power on Capitol Hill, though the results may not entirely please Mr Trump.
Colorado Republican senate candidate Joe O’Dea was attacked by the former President for being “RINO” (Republican in name only).
Former nurse Tiffany Smiley, running in Washington state, has said she would welcome a Trump endorsement.
READ MORE: Trump effect will lead to ‘generational shift’ in US political map
Democracy Institute Senate race predictions (Image: DEMOCRACY INSTITUTE)
The projections have moved a long way in a few weeks. Early last month, many experts questioned whether they would even win their four top targets – Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire.
A failure to win those today would be a major disappointment for the GOP and give Joe Biden a much needed boost.
In Georgia in particular the fight has been tough, with Trump friend and nominee Herschel Walker, a former American football star running back, drawing criticism for his inexperience.
At the moment, the Senate is 50/50, with Vice President Kamala Harris having the casting vote.
But, even if the Republicans win just one of those seven seats, they will control the Senate again.
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70 House of Representative battleground seats (Image: DEMOCRACY INSTITUTE)
Meanwhile, the race seems clearer in the House of Representatives, currently controlled by the Democrats by 220 to 212 with Nancy Pelosi as Speaker.
There, the Republicans are expected to make big gains.
The Democracy Institute believes they could go up to 245 or even 265 seats.
Mr Basham has identified 70 battleground seats in swing states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Florida, Arizona, Texas and Colorado as well as safe Democrat areas like California, Illinois, Maryland and Maine.
In addition, 17 of the largest 100 cities by population will have elections for mayor on the same day as the 2022 midterms.
These include Los Angeles, San Jose, Washington DC and North Los Vegas.
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