Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Midterm polls conducted in the final five weeks of the race were, on average, off by less than three points — generally within the margin of error, according to an Axios analysis of nearly 250 statewide surveys in the RealClearPolitics database.
Why it matters: Frustrated Republicans and emboldened Democrats are ready for recriminations after the "red wave" failed to materialize. The polling industry is a perennial punching bag, but Axios' analysis shows election returns have thus far tracked fairly closely with late-cycle surveys in key races.
Zoom in: Axios examined nearly 250 polls conducted on or after Oct. 1 in 20 statewide midterm contests across 15 states.
What they're saying: "This was one of the most accurate years for polling ever," declared FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on Twitter.
Between the lines: Pollsters fretted in the days leading up to the election that major misses would seriously dent the industry's credibility.
The intrigue: Instead, the industry may have to contend with a new trend — partisan surveys that, by chance or design, juice publicly available polling averages in favor of their clients or political allies.
Yes, but: The respected institutional players are getting it right in spite of significant challenges, Soltis Anderson says.