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Won by opposite party in 2020
WA
VT*
ME*
MT
MN
MA
WI
NY
RI
MI
CT
PA
NJ
NV
OH
DE
WV
CA
VA
MD
AZ
NM
HI
ND
WY
NE**
IN
UT
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TN
MS
TX
FL
HI
*Held by independent who caucuses with Democrats.
**Regular and special election
Independent-held
Republican-held
Not up for election
Democratic-held
Won by opposite party in 2020
Wash.
Vt.*
Maine*
Mont.
N.D.
Minn.
Mass.
Wis.
N.Y.
R.I.
Wyo.
Mich.
Conn.
Pa.
N.J.
Neb.**
Nev.
Ohio
Ind.
Del.
Utah
W.Va.
Calif.
Va.
Md.
Mo.
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N.M.
Miss.
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*Held by independent who caucuses with Democrats.
**Regular and special election
Independent-held
Republican-held
Not up for election
Democratic-held
Won by opposite party in 2020
Wash.
Vt.*
Maine*
Mont.
N.D.
Minn.
Mass.
Wis.
N.Y.
R.I.
Mich.
Wyo.
Conn.
Pa.
N.J.
Neb.**
Nev.
Ohio
Ind.
Del.
Utah
W.Va.
Calif.
Va.
Md.
Mo.
Tenn.
Ariz.
N.M.
Miss.
Tex.
Fla.
Hawaii
*Held by independent who caucuses with Democrats.
**Regular and special election
The good news for Democrats is that, by virtually any historical measure, the 2022 election was a success for their party.
Perhaps the biggest measure of that success: They managed to hold the U.S. Senate, where they couldn’t afford to lose any ground — and didn’t. In fact, they actually wound up gaining a seat, thanks to the win of Sen. Raphael G. Warnock (D-Ga.) in Tuesday’s runoff.
The bad news is that the victory might be quite temporary. To keep the Senate in 2024, they’ll likely have to beat history even significantly more than they did in this election.
One of the quirks of our election system is that the map of Senate seats that each side must defend can look quite different from election to election. Sometimes Republicans are defending the most vulnerable seats, and sometimes Democrats are. The 2024 election very much falls in the latter category.
Republican-held
Democratic-held
Independent who
caucuses with Dems.
Won by opposite
party in 2020
Trump won by…
Biden won by…
5-10
>10
<5
>10 pts
5-10
<5
2024
CA
CT
MN
ME
AZ
MI
FL
OH
TX
MT
WV
DE
HI
NV
PA
IN
MO
MA
MD
WI
MS
ND
NJ
NM
NE
NE*
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RI
TN
UT
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WA
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2022
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AL
CT
HI
NV
PA
AR
ID
IL
MD
WI
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KS
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OR
KY
LA
VT
WA
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ND
OK
OK*
SC
SD
UT
*Special election
Won by opposite
party in 2020
Independent who
caucuses with Dems.
Republican-held
Democratic-held
Trump won by…
Biden won by…
More than
10 pts
Less than
5 pts
Less than
5 pts
More than
10 pts
5 to 10 pts
5 to 10 pts
2024
CA
CT
DE
HI
MN
ME
AZ
MI
NV
PA
FL
OH
TX
MT
WV
IN
MO
MA
MD
NJ
NM
WI
MS
ND
NE
NE*
NY
RI
VA
WA
TN
UT
WY
VT
2022
CA
CO
CT
HI
NH
AZ
GA
NV
PA
FL
NC
IA
OH
AK
AL
AR
ID
IL
MD
NY
OR
WI
IN
KS
KY
LA
VT
WA
MO
ND
OK
OK*
SC
SD
UT
*Special election
Of the 34 seats that are up for reelection in 2024, Democrats are defending 23 — including the seats of two independents who caucus with Democrats. Three of those seats are particularly ripe for the GOP, given they’re in states that favored Trump by at least eight points in 2020: Montana, Ohio and West Virginia.
But even beyond that, the opportunities are extensive for Republicans. Of the six states Biden won by less than three percentage points in 2020, Democrats have to defend seats in five of them.
That’s eight solid pickup opportunities for the GOP, which will need to win either one or two seats to flip the chamber in 2024 (depending on which party wins the White House, and thus the tiebreaking vice presidency).
Adding to Democrats’ problems is the absence of obvious opportunities to play offense. They won’t be able to target any states that were blue in 2020, and perhaps their best opportunities are in red Texas and Florida. Texas Democrats haven’t won a single statewide race since 1994, and Florida Democrats just lost both a Senate and a governor’s race by more than 16 points.
As for the GOP’s best pickup opportunities? Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) have each proven difficult to beat if they run again. But those senators have also run in favorable election cycles of late, including the 2012 election when Barack Obama was reelected and the 2018 cycle when Democrats won the House.
There is no guarantee the 2024 environment will be as friendly, and each of these states has trended to the right in recent presidential elections — Ohio and West Virginia, especially. West Virginia was Donald Trump’s second-best state in both 2016 and 2020, and Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.) has already announced a run. Manchin hasn’t announced his plans, but if he doesn’t run this is a very likely pickup for the GOP.
Beyond that, the most endangered incumbents would seem to be Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) — who could also face a tough primary — and Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.). The other swing-state Democratic senators up in 2024 — Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), Robert P. Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) — won a little more comfortably last time but will be targets.
The presence of open seats will also say a lot about the playing field, as they’re generally easier to win than campaigns against incumbents. Thus far, only Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) has announced plans to retire — he’ll run for governor — but that’s in a state Trump carried by 16 points in two years ago and the seat should be a Republican hold.
Much will depend on how the presidential race plays out, but there’s an argument that even a close win for Democrats in the White House could still come with the GOP taking the Senate. This is the Senate class, after all, that gave Republicans a two-seat gain in 2018, even as Democrats were winning more than 40 seats and taking the House.
The reason? The map was just very good for the GOP. And it still is.