Ukraine
Context
On 24 February 2022, the Russian Federation launched an illegal invasion of Ukraine, dramatically escalating more than eight years of conflict to a full-scale war. Ground forces of the Russian Federation rapidly gained control of large areas in the north, east and south, while missile and rocket attacks of Russian aviation and artillery wreaked destruction in cities across the territory of Ukraine. The Ukrainian counter-offensive precipitated a withdrawal of Russian forces in the north of the country, including areas around the capital Kyiv, by April. Fighting continues in the east and south, with the front line continually shifting, and many areas becoming newly accessible to humanitarian actors responding to a steadily increasing number of people in severe humanitarian needs in these locations. The attempted illegal annexation of parts of Donetska, Khersonska, Luhanska and Zaporizka oblasts by the Russian Federation added further uncertainties with regards to humanitarian access to these areas.
In October, attacks against energy infrastructure intensified, further disrupting public services including water, electricity, heating, health care, education and social protection. The energy crisis is exacerbating humanitarian needs resulting from the full-scale war, and may cause more displacement and new humanitarian needs as temperatures can drop below minus 20 degrees Celsius, potentially leading to a humanitarian catastrophe should needs go unaddressed.
Scope of Analysis and Methodology
The 2023 Humanitarian Needs Overview (HNO) was developed in parallel to a massive response scale-up in what continues to be a highly dynamic operational environment. Consequently, the HNO methodology had to strike a balance between delivering the ongoing response, setting up coordination structures and adjusting the response framework four times in 2022, and establishing processes and methodologies to ensure a sufficiently robust evidence base of humanitarian needs for 2023.
The 2023 HNO covers Ukraine’s 24 oblasts and the city of Kyiv, including areas under the control of the Government of Ukraine (GCA), and areas under the temporary military control of the Russian Federation (excluding the Crimea and Sevastopol), and three population groups (internally displaced people, returnees, and those who remain at home). The analysis of humanitarian needs was informed by an extensive review of secondary and primary data, with feedback from field consultations and expert judgement used to fine-tune the indicator-based intersectoral severity of needs assessment. The number of people in need (PiN) was calculated based on cluster estimates and analysis.
As documented in the annex 4, this HNO was developed based on assessments and analysis conducted prior to October 2022. As a consequence, this HNO does not fully reflect new needs resulting from the recent escalation post October 2022, as well as the humanitarian needs in recently retaken areas. In light of the dynamic operational environment, the HNO is envisaged to be updated as required in 2023 based on new assessments, including the upcoming Multi Sector Needs Assessment (MSNA), and other assessments and analysis as they become available.
While data collection challenges exist across Ukraine, particularly in areas of active hostilities in the east and the south, humanitarian space and humanitarian access to areas under the temporary military control of the Russian Federation is extremely limited, and in some cases impossible. This prevents comprehensive assessments, impacting the depth of humanitarian needs analysis.
Humanitarian Conditions, People in Need and Severity of Needs
The Russian Federation’s war on Ukraine has caused widespread death, destruction, displacement and human suffering, and left at least 17.6 million people in need of multisectoral humanitarian assistance in 2023. This includes 6.3 million internally displaced people, 4.4 million returnees and 6.9 million people who have remained at their homes throughout the war.
The impact of the full-scale war, the freezing winter temperatures coupled with the energy crisis since October exacerbate pre-existing needs and are likely to lead to new multisectoral humanitarian needs. Millions of Ukrainians have endured over ten months of intense hostilities, with those living in Luhanska and Donetska oblasts already experiencing eight years of conflict without adequate access to food, water, health and mental health care, education, protection and other essential services. Massive destruction of infrastructure has decimated essential services, and left people without their homes or livelihoods. Many are living in damaged homes or in buildings ill-suited to provide protection for the winter season. They are at particularly high risk of life-threatening freezing temperatures. Anxiety regarding the risks brought on by the Ukrainian harsh winter is overwhelmingly high across the country, particularly in areas with active conflict and in areas under the temporary military control of the Russian Federation, due to enormous damage to housing and public infrastructure.
The highest severity of needs is among people living in areas under the temporary military control of the Russian Federation and in areas directly affected by active hostilities, with over 70 per cent of the assessed raions outside the control of the Government of Ukraine in the highest severity level 5 (23 raions out of 32 raions). Severity level 5 means that population in these areas experienced a collapse of living standards, an exhaustion of coping mechanisms, widespread physical and mental harm and violations of human rights.
While all of Ukraine has been affected by the full-scale war, assessments show a decreasing severity of humanitarian needs as the distance from active hostilities in the south and the east of the country increases. Needs are multisectoral in nature, and gender and diversity factors – in particular age, disability and minority status – play a key role in determining how people are impacted by the war. Among people who remain in towns and villages, the highest needs are in the east, especially among older people, people with disabilities and other segments of population who are less likely to flee due to reasons which include reduced mobility, reluctance to abandon their homes and the lack of economic resources. This represents a continued pattern in eastern Ukraine since 2014.
Meanwhile, many people have returned to northern oblasts, where humanitarian needs remain high due to the extensive destruction of infrastructure. Of the 4.4 million returnees in need of humanitarian assistance, only 7 per cent are estimated to be in parts of the country under the temporary military control of the Russian Federation, as the area is not conducive for returns.
The most vulnerable internally displaced people include those currently living in collective centres. Many of the centres are not properly equipped to meet long-term accommodation needs, and urgently need heating and fuel, construction repairs, bathing facilities, and other multisectoral assistance. Displaced people living outside of collective centres, particularly those in rural areas across Ukraine, are likely to face problems in accessing services and assistance. Some 14 per cent of internally displaced people in need of assistance are estimated to be in areas under the temporary military control of the Russian Federation, where the response is currently limited due to access challenges.
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