Ukrainian Su-27s in August 2022.
Ukraine in recent weeks finally convinced its allies to provide it NATO-style tanks. With the armor en route, Kyiv has pivoted to what it claims is its next-greatest need—new fighter jets.
As Ukrainian officials plead their case for surplus American or European F-16s or even ex-French Mirages, it’s worth asking: just how urgent is the ask?
Outside analysts have confirmed the destruction of no fewer than 52 Ukrainian fighters and attack jets in the first 11 months of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine. But how many tactical jets did the Ukrainians start with—and how many unflyable airframes have they restored to flightworthiness in order to make good combat losses?
No one outside of Kyiv knows for sure, but it’s possible to guess. One type—the Sukhoi Su-27—is especially hard to count, however.
The Ukrainian air force appears to have entered the current war with around 50 Mikoyan MiG-29s. It’s written off at least 16 of the lightweight, supersonic fighters but seemingly has restored, or acquired from abroad, at least as many MiGs as it’s lost.
The air force a year ago had maybe two dozen Sukhoi Su-24 supersonic bombers and reconnaissance planes. The Russians have destroyed at least 13 Ukrainian Su-24s, but there were so many old Su-24s in storage—potentially scores of them—that Kyiv’s engineers have had no problem replacing lost airframes.
Ukraine’s pre-war Sukhoi Su-25 fleet numbered around 30. Write-offs since February 2022 total 15. NATO countries donated 18 of their own subsonic Su-25s, more than making up for the wartime losses.
It seems the Ukrainians had around 105 MiG-29s, Su-24s and Su-25s before the Russians attacked—and, a year later, still have around 105 of these types.
That leaves just one major fighter fleet: the Su-27 supersonic interceptors. The heavy warplanes perhaps are the hardest to count, and for good reason. Fast, maneuverable and flexible, the Su-27s might be Ukraine’s most useful jets.
Sant_Ander
They patrol for Russian planes, fly high-stakes bombing sorties and even fire American-made anti-radar missiles at Russian air-defenses.
The Russians want to destroy the Su-27s. The Ukrainians want to preserve them. That there are no Su-27s in the inventories of Ukraine’s allies makes every one of the jets extremely valuable. There’s no obvious outside source for replacement airframes.
Just how many Su-27s the Ukrainian air force had in service before the wider war is a matter of intensive debate. Ukraine inherited 74 then-new Su-27s when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Twenty-three years later, as few as 24 were in active service.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014 motivated Kyiv to expand the Su-27 fleet. It’s possible as many as three dozen unflyable airframes were in storage. And by 2016, at least one analyst counted 57 Ukrainian Su-27s with confirmable “bort” numbers painted on their noses.
If all 57 were flyable, it might imply Kyiv had restored every single available airframe.
The Ukrainian air force has lost at least seven Su-27s—and at least five pilots—in the past 11 months. One of the first losses also was the most tragic for the Ukrainian people.
On Feb. 25, an Su-27 exploded while patrolling over Kyiv. It’s possible the Russians shot it down with a long-range surface-to-air missile. It’s also possible Ukrainians air-defenses mistook it for a Russian plane.
In any event, Col. Oleksandr Oksanchenko—a famous air-show pilot—died in the shoot-down. If he was flying his usual jet, Bort 58, then Ukraine also lost arguably its most famous individual warplane.
The Ukrainians in theory have as many as 50 Su-27s left, but it’s getting harder and harder to confirm the fleet size. The combination of bort numbers and camouflage patterns is the easiest way to ID a specific Su-27, but the air force knows this—and has begun painting over the bort numbers.
We occasionally can still spot—in official photos or smartphone videos from the front—particular Su-27s, including famous jets such as Bort 23 and Bort 24.
Twenty-four’s pilot once flew so low on a training sortie that he scooped up a road sign. Twenty-three’s pilot had no choice but to make an unplanned stop in Romania on the first day of the current war, when a Russian missile barrage damaged his airstrip while he was on patrol.
It’s impossible definitively to count Ukraine’s Su-27s. If Kyiv has made a maximal effort, potentially 50 of the powerful fighters still are airworthy.
But every Su-27 Ukraine loses is an Su-27 it can’t replace. And that could explain why sourcing new fighters now is Kyiv’s top weapons priority. After all, there’s no reason to believe the war will end anytime soon.