South Sudan
A scale-up of food assistance is required to prevent a significant risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in 2021
KEY MESSAGES
• The escalation of conflict and severe floods in 2020, coupled with the impacts of the worsening macroeconomic crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic on staple food prices and household income, have driven exceptionally high levels of acute food insecurity for the main harvesting period. FSNMS data collected in October 2020 and other available evidence indicate household hunger is comparable to the peak of the 2019 lean season and worse than the post-harvest period of 2019. Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) is likely among households in multiple counties of South Sudan, including in Pibor, Aweil South, greater Tonj, and Akobo. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are widespread.
• The area of greatest concern is Pibor,1 where it is possible the population in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in the OctoberNovember period is near to or exceeds 20 percent. Available information suggests extreme levels of acute malnutrition and mortality – which are lagging indicators – have likely not reached the Famine (IPC Phase 5) thresholds. FEWS NET assesses that the delivery of food assistance to 20 percent of the local population in October has mitigated deterioration to worse outcomes, resulting in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes at the county level. As food and income sources decline during the dry season, however, some increase in acute malnutrition and excess mortality is anticipated.
• In Pibor, FEWS NET anticipates area level Emergency! (IPC Phase 4!) 2 outcomes with some households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in the projection period. WFP plans to deliver food assistance to nearly 20 percent of the population monthly from January to May, and humanitarians are expected to prioritize delivery to the worst-affected households to the greatest degree possible. However, there are significant concerns for potential disruptions to delivery. Further, the scale of planned assistance is inadequate to prevent large food consumption gaps among all households. As such, FEWS NET assesses a significant risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) will persist. If assistance is not delivered, Famine (IPC Phase 5) would be possible. A scale-up of food assistance and guaranteed humanitarian access is urgently needed to save lives.
• Across the rest of South Sudan, the completion of the main harvest in December and availability of other typical food sources will somewhat alleviate the severity of food insecurity through January. However, widespread deterioration to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected in 40 counties during the lean season, from February to May. In addition to Pibor, other areas of high concern include Jonglei, Warrap, Lakes, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Unity, and Upper Nile.
• Although humanitarian response plans indicate funded food assistance is likely to reach up to 20 percent of the national population during the lean season, FEWS NET anticipates that the total population in need of food assistance will exceed at least 50 percent of the national population. FEWS NET also assesses Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) will be possible in some areas – including but not limited to Akobo, Aweil South, and greater Tonj – if planned food assistance is delayed or disrupted. Given these high levels of food insecurity, a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) will likely persist in other areas of South Sudan if an additional shock were to isolate households from food sources for a prolonged time.
South Sudan
South Sudan
South Sudan + 1 more
South Sudan
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