Wednesday, April 19 , 2023
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IMAGEN/ARCHIVO – Egypt's President Abdel Fattah El Sisi
Erdoğan wants to maintain his influence in Sudan at all costs. The Turkish president considers that the diplomatic rapprochement he is engaged in with the Arab countries with which he had rivalled during the Arab Spring is not incompatible with reinforcing his presence in the Horn of Africa, a region in permanent crisis but full of strategic advantages. However, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are not of the same opinion and are keeping a close eye on the Islamist leader’s movements in a country in flames since the fall of Omar Hassan al-Bashir’s regime at the hands of his comrades-in-arms in 2019, in which they also have interests.
The overthrow of al-Bashir after three decades in power was a setback for Erdoğan’s regional aspirations. The autocrat shared the Islamist agenda of Turkey and Qatar, but the military leadership that took over the reins was not so predictable. The self-proclaimed president of the Sovereign Transitional Council, General Abdul Fattah al-Burhan, and his number two, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, alias Hemedti, were virtual unknowns who, a priori, guaranteed his continuity by maintaining a certain distance from the methods and ways that had provoked the popular discontent that led to the dictator’s fall.
From Cairo, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh saw a clear opportunity to reverse Sudan’s historical direction and bet unreservedly on al-Burhan, clearly the winning horse. The lieutenant general received the unequivocal backing of the Gulf states, which embarked on a multi-billion-dollar race to invest in strategic projects and infrastructure in Sudan. However, plans to displace Khartoum from the Doha-Ankara axis have not gone according to plan. “Perhaps Turkey’s rivals should not have been surprised; after all, Burhan and other SAF generals had been members of the SIM, with all its ideological, economic and security ties to Erdoğan’s Turkey,” writes Sudanese political analyst Jihad Mashamoun in the Middle East Institute (MEI).
“Sudan has long maintained a strategic partnership with Turkey, forged on the basis of a shared ideology and fostered by growing economic and political ties, which has proven resilient to regime change,” Mashamoun stresses. Indeed, Khartoum has not even put bilateral relations with Ankara on the back burner. Sudan’s military leadership maintains Erdoğan as its preferred partner, including in terms of trade, while balancing the balancing act to please its new Gulf financiers.
According to the Turkish Foreign Ministry, the volume of trade between the two countries reached $480 million in 2020, and Turkish investment in Sudan reached $600 million in the same year. “Sudan’s geostrategic position makes it important for Turkey’s engagement with Africa, especially the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, and this geographical reach is essential to Ankara’s neo-Ottoman policy. The Turkish model, by contrast, focuses on a combination of humanitarian and development projects, economic and business relations, and diplomatic and, later, defence ties,’ explains the Sudanese analyst.
The Turkish government is willing to compete economically with the Gulf countries, especially in the agricultural sector. This was demonstrated by last Friday’s reception in Ankara of Sudan’s Minister of Cabinet Affairs Osman Hussein, who signed a Memorandum of Understanding on agricultural and livestock cooperation with Turkish Vice-President Fuat Oktay on behalf of the transitional government. This was a declaration of intent and a crystal-clear message to the Gulf states.
But Egypt may be the biggest loser. Cairo fears that Turkish agricultural investments will result in the construction of infrastructure in the vicinity of the Nile River. If so, Egypt’s water reserves could be seriously threatened by a regional rival. The threat to water resources is amplified by Turkey’s good relations with Abiy Ahmed’s Ethiopia, to which it supplied Bayraktar T2 drones to counter attacks by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
“For now, Sudan is using the regional realignment between Turkey and the Gulf to maintain Khartoum’s relationship with Ankara, although this careful diplomatic balancing act could change due to persistent Sudanese protests calling for full civilian rule, a transition that would push Sudan’s strategic partnership with Turkey into uncharted waters,” Mashamoun writes.
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