South Sudan
Protracted conflict and floods drive widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4) during the harvesting period
KEY MESSAGES
Extensive flooding for the fourth consecutive year has affected over a million people, caused crop and livestock production losses, significantly disrupted trade flows and market functionality, and impeded the delivery of humanitarian food and nutrition assistance to vulnerable people in need. This shock coupled with ongoing conflict come at a time of deteriorating economic conditions characterized by currency depreciation and high food prices, all of which are driving persistently high levels of acute food insecurity. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to remain widespread even during the harvest (OctoberJanuary) and post-harvest (February-March) periods. While humanitarians plan to deliver food assistance to 1.3 million people per month on average, this represents only 16 percent of the total population in need.
The largest numbers of flood-affected people are found in Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Warrap, Upper Nile, and Unity. Recent conflict hotspots include northern Jonglei and southwestern Upper Nile, with simmering insecurity in central and northern Unity, Greater Tonj and Twic of Warrap, and parts of Greater Equatoria. Of particular concern are populations in areas with concurrent insecurity and floods, notably northern Jonglei and central Unity. FEWS NET and IPC partners assess that the worst-affected households in Fangak, Canal/Pigi, Akobo, and Pibor, who lack productive assets and face physical or other barriers to accessing food assistance, are in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).
Due to the above shocks, as well as prolonged dry spells in north-central and southern South Sudan and limited household access to inputs, harvests in Greater Upper Nile and Greater Bahr el Ghazal are expected to be lower than last year and the five-year average. By contrast, the second season harvest is likely to be higher than last year’s in bi-modal Greater Equatoria due to relative calm in productive cropping zones. Overall, the resultant national cereal deficit and high costs of regional food imports will drive high prices and limit food access.
While the main dry season (November-May) will facilitate receding floodwaters, flood extent will remain atypically expansive as has been observed over the past few years. In addition, levels of conflict and insecurity typically increase during the dry season. Millions of households will be unable to return to their places of origin or recover their typical livelihoods. As a result, the availability of the harvest will only marginally reduce the severity and magnitude of acute food insecurity. As food stocks are depleted in early 2023, and livestock productivity reaches an annual low between February and May, millions will face food consumption deficits or rely on severe coping strategies to access food.
FEWS NET assesses that a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) persists in Jonglei and Unity, where there are large populations in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) with associated high levels of acute malnutrition. Past events in South Sudan demonstrate the potential for new shocks to quickly arise and isolate households from food sources, leading to extreme hunger. An end to cycles of conflict and displacement, accompanied by multi-sectoral interventions to strengthen basic health and sanitation services, improve flood management infrastructure, and rebuild livelihoods and coping capacity, is required to end the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5).
South Sudan
South Sudan
South Sudan + 1 more
South Sudan
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