The Financial Express
By Dr J M. Moosa,
Last week, the simmering tensions and heightened crisis exploded in Sudan, as violent clashes broke out across the country between the Sudanese Army led by Lt Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. The current violence and conflict are rooted in the ouster of President Omar al-Bashir by military generals following a countrywide uprising against him and demands for democracy in April 2019. The pro democracy protest continued seeking elections and a civilian government. As a result, an agreement was reached between the military and the protesters in August 2019 which eventually led to the formation of the Sovereignty Council. This was a power-sharing body of military officers and civilians to prepare for and hold elections at the end of 2023. Abdalla Hamdok was appointed Prime Minister for the transitional period. He had served in numerous national and international administrative positions including as the Prime Minister of Sudan (2019-2021) and as the Deputy Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (2011-2018). But the new arrangement was short-lived as the military soon overthrew Hamdok’s government in October 2021.
Burhan then became the de-facto leader of the country and Dagalo, his partner in the military seizure, became the second-in-command. He had also announced that the military would hold on to power until elections scheduled to be held in July 2023, took place. RSF had emerged from the various tribal militia which President al Bashir had established and promoted to subdue opposition to his regime in regions like Darfur. However, over time, the mandate of RSF expanded and it was allowed to develop in size and capability. He also permitted it to expand its control on gold mines and other economic resources.
The relations between both the generals began to deteriorate and disagreement over issues like how the 10,000-strong RSF should be integrated into the army, and which authority should oversee that process. Also, Dagalo wanted to delay the integration for 10 years while the Army wanted it to be done in the next two years. Underlying this was the tussle for supremacy. As per latest reports, the possibility of a negotiated agreement and durable ceasefire has receded and most countries are now trying to evacuate their nationals. There are fears of Sudan degenerating into chaos as both the contenders try to establish their supremacy and control the levers of power.
India’s ties with Sudan are old and multifaceted. Both countries share similar positions on various global issues and concerns. Mahatma Gandhi for instance visited Port Sudan in 1935, on his way to England and met with the members of the Indian Diaspora in Sudan. While the first Sudanese Parliamentary elections in 1953 were conducted by Sukumar Sen, the then India’s Chief Election Commissioner. Capacity building and education has been an area of long-term engagement with about 1500 students coming to India annually for higher studies in both public as well as private institutions. It is estimated that there are more than 100,000 Sudanese graduates of Indian Universities.
There are estimated 4,000 Indians in Sudan with about a quarter of them being part of the old Indian Diaspora community. The first Indian, Luvchand Amarchand Shah, a Gujarati trader who imported goods from India, is believed to have come to Sudan from Aden in 1856. When his business expanded, he brought his relatives and others from Saurashtra to settle in Sudan. The recent violence, unfortunately has resulted in the death of an Indian and as a consequence the Indian government has, as per reports, kept two IAF planes in Jeddah and a Naval ship on standby for evacuation of stranded Indians.
India and Sudan Economic Ties
It is in the economic sphere that the relationships have evolved and have become very significant and important. While the bilateral trade in 2021-2022 is about $1.2 billion with Indian exports accounting for around $1.1 billion. Relations remained in a low gear till the turn of the century when ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL) made significant investments in the petrochemical sector of Sudan. OVL had invested $ 2.3 billion in the oil industry in the undivided Sudan by acquisition of 25% shares of Talisman Energy Inc. of Canada in the Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company consortium in early 2000. This was part of a strategy for energy security. India is a fast-growing economy with a large and growing appetite for energy. Abundant availability of reliable and cost-effective energy supply is an essential perquisite for sustaining India’s fast economic growth. The securing of energy supplies became a strategic imperative for India. It was as a part of this policy of diversifying the source of petroleum that India and Sudan entered into a major collaboration in the oil sector.
The development of the oil sector in Sudan began in 1996, when the Canadian company Arakis Energy began the development of the Heglig and Unity oil fields. As the fields were not located near the Red Sea coast, Arakis entered into a consortium with the Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company (GNPOC) to raise investment for a 1600 Km pipeline from these fields to the Suakim oil terminal near Port Sudan. This pipeline became operational in September 1999. In March 2003, Talisman of Canada sold its stake in GNPOC (acquired through its purchase of Arrakis) to India’s OVL, after the Sudanese government rejected the option of other shareholders viz. Petronas and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) to increase their shareholding. Another important feature of Indian investment was that it was done when Sudan was still considered an international outcast. As the then Ambassador Mahamoud to India said this relationship is not just friendly engagement or partnership but fraternal and brotherly relations. After these initial investments in the oil sector, many Indian concerns have been expanding their investments and business in Sudan.
As consequence of discovery of oil and successful end of civil war and formation of South Sudan brought Sudan from the shadows and margins. This had made Sudan, an important destination for FDI from different parts of the world. It had also gone into a diplomatic outreach to many countries including Israel in a bid to normalize its global standing. The stalled WTO negotiation too had recently been revived. All this now hangs in a balance as the battle for supremacy and control will undo all the development and progress that had been achieved. With limited external leverages, the hope and dream of a bright future is quickly turning in to a nightmare and is on the brink of disaster.
The author is at Centre for African Studies, SIS, JNU, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited.
Get live Share Market updates and latest India News and business news on Financial Express. Download Financial Express App for latest business news.