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THU, JUN 08, 2023

Michael Sheetz | Space Reporter
@thesheetztweetz

OVERVIEW: Chasing the Falcon

A Falcon 9 rocket launches Starlink satellites from Florida on June 4, 2023. Credit: SpaceX

No rocket has been better-described as a “workhorse” than SpaceX’s Falcon 9. Historically a term reserved for the likes of ULA’s Delta II (now retired) or Russia’s Soyuz (now unavailable) or China’s Long March (also unavailable), the blistering pace of Falcon 9 missions has seen the company blow past 200 launches to date, and become the staple of the Western market.

Even taking out Starlink missions, which make up roughly half of this year’s 36 Falcon 9 launches, the rocket has cemented itself as a regular, reliable ride to orbit for anyone who doesn’t – or can’t – fly with China or Russia. And, as the Falcon 9 fleet continues its streak of booster landings, approaching 200 soon, SpaceX’s launch cadence is made possible by its ability to reuse rockets in under a month.

“Falcon is going up so much that you forget it’s going up – it’s almost boring, which is kind of what you want, ironically,” BryceTech senior space analyst Phil Smith told me.

Concerns of SpaceX monopolizing the launch market through Falcon 9 have bubbled up more than a few times in the industry over the past year. For some context, BryceTech has a helpful graphic that breaks down the rocket market into classes, from Micro (e.g., Astra’s Rocket 3.3) up to Super Heavy (e.g., SpaceX’s Starship).

The launch market “sweet spot” for leading new entrant rockets – ULA’s Vulcan, Rocket Lab’s Neutron, Relativity’s Terran R, Firefly’s MLV – is in that heavy class. Aside from Blue Origin’s New Glenn, the early theme is rockets that are close to the capability of Falcon 9 and less expensive. We’ve recently learned that Rocket Lab is targeting a price tag of about $50 million per launch for Neutron, while Relativity has been selling Terran R for about $45 million. Falcon 9 is advertised for $67 million per launch.

Notably, that market “sweet spot” shifted in recent years. Smith and I discussed how several of these companies were going after the small to medium side of the market, before deciding to bet on the heavy class instead.

“What was underestimated was the enthusiasm among investors and startups to put together constellations [of satellites] that were huge,” Smith said.

“There was this thinking – and I still think to a certain degree it’s true – that you need the small vehicles to get your [spacecraft] up there to do tech demos, and you’re willing to pay a premium to get that done. And then you get the bigger vehicles to launch your bulk stuff,” Smith said. “But then the problem was SpaceX undercut that with the rideshare [missions] and killed it.”

While Smith sees there being plenty of room to play in the heavy market for new rockets, the danger is “how much of the pie is everybody going to get” in that class. But he’s confident that the “workhorse — not sexy — doing the hauling of the mail” type rockets will continue to be in demand from customers.

And even with Starship looming large, Smith doesn’t expect the heavy-class to be made obsolete.

“There will always be a need for a certain family of vehicles to pick from. I don’t think Starship will be the panacea or silver bullet for all launch needs, and I think that Falcon 9 will be very hard to stop for SpaceX because the customer base will really want it,” Smith said.

WHAT’S UP

Boeing delays Starliner crew launch indefinitely: The company announced alongside NASA that it was standing down from the planned July 21 launch of the capsule’s crew flight test, after discovering additional issues with the spacecraft. Two recent problems identified were the safety of the parachute system and a specific type of tape that is flammable that needs to be replaced. – CNBC
Department of Defense awards SpaceX with Ukraine contract for Starlink, as the U.S. military works with a variety of satellite communications companies to provide services in the country. The Pentagon declined to specify details about the contract including price, scope, and timeline. – CNBC
ULA test fires Vulcan in a milestone toward first launch: The company performed a test firing of the full rocket, with its pair of Blue Origin BE-4 engines. CEO Tory Bruno said it went as expected. Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos congratulated ULA on the test. – Watch
Boeing sued by small Colorado company over alleged IP theft and counterfeited tools, which the lawsuit says were used for NASA projects including the International Space Station and the Space Launch Systems rocket. While Boeing said that the lawsuit “is rife with inaccuracies and omissions,” it declined to share specifics. – CNBC
SpaceX launches 28th cargo mission for NASA, with its 39th launch so far this year. The company’s Falcon 9 booster landed for a fifth time, with the Cargo Dragon capsule flying its fourth mission to date. SpaceX has now sent 280,000 pounds of crew and cargo on missions to-and-from the International Space Station. – Read more
Blue Origin a “few weeks” away from resuming New Shepard flights, with CEO Bob Smith saying the company is finishing the process of preparing the rocket to return to flight after last year’s cargo failure. Blue Origin continues to work with the FAA on obtaining regulatory approval to launch New Shepard again. – SpaceNews
NASA leadership voices concerns over Starship development timeline, with the agency’s associate administrator Jim Free saying he is uncertain if the lunar variation of the rocket will be ready in time for the Artemis 3 mission, planned for late 2025. Free noted that SpaceX has “a lot of launches” to get done to demonstrate the rocket’s capability. – SpaceNews
Intelsat upgrading Japan Airlines’ in-flight connectivity, installing Intelsat’s 2Ku system on 50 Boeing aircraft, as well as on JAL’s subsidiary airline’s Embraer E190 aircraft. – Intelsat
HawkEye 360’s seventh batch of radio frequency satellites begin operations, in what the company says is a “record time” after launch. Its Cluster 7 satellites were launched on April 15, and expand the company’s constellation to 21 satellites. – HawkEye 360
Launch service provider Rocket Factory Augsburg AG test fires rocket’s upper stage, in a milestone the company says lasted for a full duration firing of 280 seconds. The European company is closing in on the first launch of its RFA ONE rocket. – RFA
Planet satellite images capture damage to Ukrainian dam, with its SkySat showing water spilling over. – Planet
Satellite imagery startup Albedo expands Colorado staff and facilities, with the company planning to launch its first satellite in 2025. – SpaceNews

INDUSTRY MANEUVERS

Firefly acquiring Washington-based Spaceflight for an undisclosed amount: The rocket builder says the deal will bolster its launch, spacecraft, and lunar lander businesses. Spaceflight has manufacturing and processing facilities in Bellevue, Washington for spacecraft production and processing. – Firefly Aerospace
Spacecraft builder York acquires aerospace venture Emergent for an undisclosed amount. York says Emergent’s work in software development, integration and testing will bolster its product offering. – York Space
DC-based Hydrosat is acquiring Dutch agricultural information company IrriWatch, for an undisclosed amount. Hydrosat plans to use satellites to gather thermal and multispectral infrared data. The company says its data will be integrated in IrriWatch’s platform, which provides updates daily to farmers in 62 countries. – Hydrosat
Lidar satellite startup Nuview raises $15 million from investors including actor Leonardo DiCaprio: The round was led by MaC Venture Capital, and joined by Broom Ventures, Cortado, Florida Funders, Industrious, Liquid2, and Veto Capital. – TechCrunch
Viasat wins Air Force contract to provide satellite relay communications under the AFRL’s ARBALEST program, to demonstrate the military can connect to satellites in multiple orbits. – Viasat
BlackSky awarded two-year contract from international defense customer, which the satellite imagery company says represents a multi-million dollar ground station upgrade deal. – BlackSky
Momentus signs deal with Internet of Things company Apogeo, to deliver nine satellites to orbit after a launch in January 2024. – Momentus
Astrobotic partners with Westinghouse to develop space nuclear technology, such as using a version of the 5-MW eVinci microreactor for spacecraft. – Westinghouse
EchoStar’s Hughes and OneWeb roll out in-flight wireless partnership, as the companies offer distribution to airlines for Wi-Fi. – EchoStar

BOLDLY GOING

Iris Lan named as NASA’s general counsel, succeeding Sumara Thompson-King, who retired in December. Before joining NASA, Lan was an associate deputy attorney general at the U.S. Department of Justice. – NASA
Celeste Ford joins cybersecurity-focused SpiderOak’s advisory board: Ford is the founder of aerospace engineering company Stellar Solutions. – SpiderOak
Melissa Quinn hired by Slingshot Aerospace as general manager of subsidiary Seradata. Quinn was previously the head of Spaceport Cornwall in the U.K. – Slingshot Aerospace

ON THE HORIZON

June 9: NASA astronauts spacewalk to install solar arrays on the International Space Station.
June 11: SpaceX’s Falcon 9 launches Starlink satellites from Florida.
June 12: SpaceX’s Falcon 9 launches Transporter-8 mission from California.

Michael Sheetz is CNBC’s space reporter – send tips, talent moves and more to michael.sheetz@nbcuni.com” style=”text-decoration: underline; color: #002d63;” rel=”noopener”>michael.sheetz@nbcuni.com.

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