The latest coverage of the 2024 presidential, House and Senate elections.
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) boards an elevator at the U.S. Capitol Dec. 12, 2022. | Francis Chung/POLITICO
Congress
If the newly minted Arizona independent seeks reelection, she could set up a three-way race that puts her former party in a perilous position in a swing state.
By BURGESS EVERETT and MARIANNE LEVINE
Democrats’ next Senate campaign chief is going to inherit a huge Kyrsten Sinema dilemma.
The Arizona centrist’s turn to independent status is shaking up the Senate’s 2024 map just days after Democrats closed this year’s midterm battle with a huge win in Georgia. And Sinema isn’t the only one ramping up the pressure on the party: Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) could soon force Democrats into tough spending decisions as he explores a bid that could produce a brutal three-way race, if Sinema runs again.
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Sen. Tim Scott has carved out a unique lane in the GOP, well-liked by mainstream leaders but never publicly at odds with Trump world, even when he’s offered halted criticism of the former president. | Scott Olson/Getty Images
Congress
The South Carolina senator isn’t committing to a White House bid yet, but his colleagues think he’d have a shot in a possibly tough field.
By MARIANNE LEVINE
Joni Ernst is “very excited” about a potential Tim Scott presidential run. John Cornyn would “advise him to go for it.” And John Barrasso said it “doesn’t get any better than Tim Scott.”
Even Sen. Lindsey Graham, who spent much of Donald Trump’s presidency sticking to his side, said he’s intrigued by the possibility of a Scott presidential bid in 2024 and wants to see “what Tim does” before he makes any endorsements.
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Sen. Kyrsten Sinema wouldn’t say in an interview with POLITICO whether she’ll seek reelection in two years. | Pool photo by Rod Lamkey
Congress
The last critical Arizona Senate race ended a month ago, and the next one is already kicking off — with pressure on Democrats to dodge a political disaster.
By SARAH FERRIS and NATALIE ALLISON
Kyrsten Sinema’s Friday party switch has jolted her home state’s 2024 Senate race to life far earlier than expected, raising questions from Capitol Hill to Phoenix about the risk that Democrats could hand the GOP a must-win seat.
The now-independent senator wouldn’t say in an interview with POLITICO whether she’ll seek reelection in two years. Still, multiple Democrats see Sinema’s move as an attempt to shore up her electoral standing — by both avoiding a primary and trying to box out her likely chief opponent, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.).
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RNC Chair McDaniel has been forthcoming about the GOP’s pitfalls in the midterms and says she has plans to ensure the party doesn’t suffer a similar fate in 2024. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images
Politics
In missives sent to all 168 members, several committeemen expressed horror with the Nick Fuentes dinner. One wanted the chair to speak out.
By MERIDITH MCGRAW
A handful of Republican National Committee members denounced former President Donald Trump, with one pushing for fellow members and RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel to forcefully condemn his decision to host a pre-Thanksgiving dinner with antisemites.
“I am flabbergasted at the lack of outrage from Ronna about this,” Oscar Brock, a national committeeman from Tennessee, wrote in one of a series of private email threads obtained by POLITICO. “I tweeted to her yesterday, asking her to condemn this. We must, as a party, oppose all racism and prejudice, and condemn those who accept and endorse it, which includes inviting neo-nazi’s [sic] to dinner.”
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While Joe Biden may have more time to announce a reelection bid, it is not infinite. | Patrick Semansky/AP Photo
White House
The president and his team are making moves ahead of a likely 2024 announcement.
By CHRISTOPHER CADELAGO, JONATHAN LEMIRE, ELI STOKOLS and SAM STEIN
White House officials and senior Democrats believe the party’s better-than-expected fall has relieved considerable pressure on Joe Biden to act quickly on a reelection bid.
But they’re still making moves.
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Former President Donald Trump’s ability to fundraise online via small-dollar donors has been a major advantage compared to other Republican candidates. | Rebecca Blackwell/AP Photo
Elections
The former president’s joint fundraising committee raised more than $4.1 million online in the weeks after his launch.
By JESSICA PIPER
The main fundraising committee powering former President Donald Trump’s campaign raised more than $4.1 million online in the two weeks after he launched his 2024 bid — a sum that, while significant, lags well behind the eye-popping fundraising numbers he has posted in the past.
The former president’s digital fundraising efforts are detailed in the latest campaign finance filing from WinRed, the widely used GOP online donation processor. Trump, whose online fundraising prowess has set him apart from other GOP politicians, raised more than $850,000 for his joint fundraising committee on WinRed on the day of his campaign launch and more than $750,000 the following day, a POLITICO analysis found. Through Nov. 28, the committee raised more than $4.1 million via 108,000 distinct donations — an average of about $38 per contribution.
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President Joe Biden emerged from the midterms stronger than before, in ways that have further discouraged potential challengers. | Ross D. Franklin/AP Photo
Column | Altitude
A big prize awaits candidates who are willing to defy conventional wisdom.
By JOHN F. HARRIS
Last month’s midterm elections jostled but did not dislodge the consensus view in political and media circles that the most likely scenario for the 2024 presidential election remains a rematch of the 2020 presidential election.
So the year is closing with a paradox. There is abundant evidence of the infirmities of the leading figures in both major parties. Yet for the moment the outward indications are that it will be hard to thwart either one for nominations they both want. Especially as reflected in the views of younger voters, the American electorate seems ready or even desperate to move on. But the dynamics of the parties, at least as perceived by a certain class of political professionals, are stuck in place. Trump, of course, emerged from the midterms weaker than he looked before, perhaps emboldening challengers — who will proceed with the knowledge that over seven years he has systematically humiliated every GOP figure who tried to confront him. Biden emerged stronger than before, in ways that have further discouraged potential challengers.
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Though Sen. Gary Peters had optimistically predicted Senate Democrats would pick up two seats this cycle, he said he stayed cautious throughout the midterms. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo
Elections
Fresh off a cycle that ended with all party incumbents still standing, Sen. Gary Peters is getting pushed to try it again. He’s not so keen.
By MARIANNE LEVINE
Democrats are urging Gary Peters to stay at the helm of their Senate campaign arm after the party pulled off the historic feat of reelecting every incumbent this midterm. He’s not, however, rushing to do it all again.
Once mocked by the GOP as an unknown named “Jerry,” Peters took his own low-key bow after Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) prevailed in Tuesday’s runoff, saying of his Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chairmanship: “I enjoyed it more than I thought I would.”
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Behind, the scenes, Trump lieutenants moved to deflect blame for Herschel Walker’s loss, attributing his defeat to a cascade of Democratic spending. | Ben Gray/AP Photo
Elections
“They need to stop and regroup over the holidays,” a former Trump campaign adviser said, amid investigations and midterm losses.
By ALEX ISENSTADT
Former President Donald Trump had hoped to jumpstart his 2024 comeback bid buoyed by a team of newly elected MAGA allies.
Instead, Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker on Tuesday became the latest high-profile Trump-endorsed candidate to go down to defeat — joining a long list including Pennsylvania’s Mehmet Oz, Arizona’s Kari Lake and Blake Masters, Wisconsin’s Tim Michels and Nevada’s Adam Laxalt.
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Management at No Labels is aware of the staff concerns and complaints. And they have taken steps to stop them from spilling into public view. | Spencer Platt/Getty Images
politics
The centrist group says its critics don’t give it proper credit. But ex-staffers say the organization is rife with problems.
By DANIEL LIPPMAN
Updated
Over the past year, the centrist group No Labels has spearheaded an ambitious $70 million project laying the groundwork for a unity ticket presidential campaign in 2024.
For that effort, its founder and CEO, one of Washington’s most successful fundraisers, Nancy Jacobson, has enlisted the help of a number of major donors and sought support in top political allies. Outgoing Gov. Larry Hogan (R-Md.), who is considering a presidential run, is the group’s co-chair. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently met with the group’s executives and donors in Dallas.
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Arizona offers a case study for how far some state legislators want to go in taking control of elections if the Supreme Court rules in favor of the independent state legislature theory. | Mario Tama/Getty Images
Elections
Some legislators want the power to nullify elections and bypass judicial scrutiny of election laws.
By HEIDI PRZYBYLA
Updated
Arizona state Sen. Paul Boyer over the past year single-handedly blocked scores of bills that would have upended elections in his state.
The Republican legislator says his experience shows there’s nothing theoretical about the potential dangers of the so-called “independent state legislature theory.”
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Most of the justices have already signaled where they are likely to fall on the theory, leaving a critical bloc of three of the court’s conservatives as the potential majority makers. | Samuel Corum/Getty Images
Legal
Arguments in a major case Wednesday could have significant ramifications for how the 2024 election is conducted.
By ZACH MONTELLARO
Conservative attorneys hope to advance a legal idea in front of the Supreme Court on Wednesday that would give state legislatures more control over elections — which could have a dramatic impact on everything from who gets elected to Congress to what rules voters must follow to cast their ballots in 2024.
But it is unclear if the court will embrace the “independent state legislature” theory underpinning the case — and it will likely come down to divisions within the court’s conservative majority when they hear arguments in Moore v. Harper.
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Bolton served in Trump’s administration, but he was ousted in 2019 after clashing with the president. | Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images
Politics
The former national security adviser, speaking on NBC’s “Meet the Press NOW,” said he’d consider running in part “to stop some of the things Trump has done to the party.”
By OLIVIA OLANDER
Former national security adviser John Bolton said on Monday he was considering a run for president “to stop some of the things Trump has done to the party,” following the suggestion by his former boss on Saturday to allow “termination” of the Constitution.
“I’d like to see Shermanesque statements from all the potential candidates,” Bolton said on NBC’s “Meet the Press NOW,” calling for a clear repudiation from other Republicans. “If I don’t see that, then I’m going to seriously consider getting in.”
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Former U.S. President Donald Trump and former first lady Melania Trump prepare to leave an event at his Mar-a-Lago home on Nov.15, 2022 in Palm Beach, Fla. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Politics
On Truth Social on Saturday, he repeated false claims about election fraud, which he said “allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution.”
By OLIVIA OLANDER
Former President Donald Trump on Monday denied he wanted to “‘terminate’ the Constitution,” two days after suggesting “the termination of all rules … even those found in the Constitution.”
“The Fake News is actually trying to convince the American People that I said I wanted to ‘terminate’ the Constitution. This is simply more DISINFORMATION & LIES,” Trump said on Monday on his own social media platform, Truth Social.
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The potential matchup between Montana Republicans Rep.-elect Ryan Zinke, left, and Rep. Matt Rosendale is a microcosm of the national dynamic heading into 2024. | Patrick Semansky and Eliza Wiley/AP Photos
elections
Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, Indiana: A quartet of races are attracting a flurry of interest from ambitious Republicans who see safe seats in the offing.
By BURGESS EVERETT and OLIVIA BEAVERS
Montana stretches for 147,000 square miles. That still might not be enough room for the ambitions of its two GOP House members.
Rep. Matt Rosendale and Rep.-elect Ryan Zinke are weighing whether to run against each other for the right to challenge Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), one of four marquee red-state Senate races taking shape in 2024. For Rosendale and Zinke, it could mean a rematch of their 2014 House GOP primary battle, when Zinke narrowly dispatched Rosendale.
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Sen. Joni Ernst speaks to reporters at the Capitol on Nov. 29, 2022, in Washington, D.C. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images
elections
The Democratic National Committee on Friday voted to change its calendar for presidential primaries.
By OLIVIA OLANDER
Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, a Republican, was “sorely disappointed” at Democrats’ vote to strip her state of its first-in-the-nation status in the presidential nominating process, she said Sunday on “Fox News Sunday.”
“Democrats have really given middle America the middle finger,” Ernst told host Shannon Bream. Republicans should “absolutely not” follow their lead, she said.
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Californians eyeing Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat have been careful to show respect for the longest-serving woman in U.S. Senate history and have, for the most part, avoided overt positioning. But the détente is unlikely to hold for much longer. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo
California
California’s long-serving senator hasn’t revealed her 2024 plans, but Democratic hopefuls are making moves.
By JEREMY B. WHITE
Sen. Dianne Feinstein hasn’t said if she intends to seek another term in 2024 — but the competition to succeed the oldest member of Congress is escalating.
Reps. Ro Khanna and Katie Porter are fielding entreaties to jump into the race, and Rep. Adam Schiff has publicly declared he is exploring a run. Rep. Barbara Lee is spending the holidays mulling her next move. Three hopefuls have contacted former Sen. Barbara Boxer to seek her advice, marking the incipient stages of a fierce fight between California Democrats for a seat that has not been open for a generation.
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Scott Brennan, a longtime Democratic operative from Iowa, said he could not support the president’s proposal. | Nathan Howard/AP Photo
Elections
Biden’s proposal would have South Carolina hold Democrats’ first presidential primary and Michigan and Georgia join the early states.
By ELENA SCHNEIDER
Updated
The Democratic National Committee voted on Friday to radically alter its presidential nominating calendar, following President Joe Biden’s recommendations to elevate South Carolina as the first primary state and to eliminate Iowa, breaking with a half-century of historical precedent. But there are still several logistical hurdles for the party to clear to make the new vision a reality.
The DNC is on track to reshape its primary calendar after dissatisfaction with the traditional first state, Iowa, boiled over in 2020. Members of the party’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, charged with recommending a new calendar, gave a near-unanimous vote of approval on Friday for Biden’s proposal, with only minor tweaks to the dates and two ‘no’ votes from Iowa and New Hampshire members. The revised proposal would see South Carolina host the first 2024 presidential primary on Feb. 3, a Saturday, followed three days later by New Hampshire and Nevada. Georgia would then hold an early primary on Feb. 13, and Michigan would hold its contest on Feb. 27. Iowa would be out of the early lineup altogether.
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Nikki Haley had previously said she would not run for the White House against Donald Trump. But she began making an about-face after the midterm elections. | Mark Makela/Getty Images
Elections
The non-profits associated with possible presidential candidates are taking in millions. The donors are anonymous.
By HAILEY FUCHS
Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, said this week that she will take the holiday break to mull a possible run for the White House in 2024.
Quietly, she has amassed some infrastructure to make a bid.
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Chester County election workers process mail-in and absentee ballots for the 2020 general election in the at West Chester University in Pennsylvania. | Matt Slocum/AP Photo
elections
GOP officials in the state are coming to the belief that it’s better to work within the system than politically die by it.
By HOLLY OTTERBEIN
PHILADELPHIA — For the past two years, Republican officials in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania have blasted mail voting, firing off lawsuits and bills aimed at crippling the balloting method that has become increasingly popular post-pandemic.
In the wake of a midterm cycle that proved disastrous for them, they’re wondering if their antipathy to the idea cost them the election.
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