The recent terror attacks in the West Bank elicit genuine feelings of solidarity with the slain, the wounded, and their families. This pain, however, must not be allowed to overshadow the broader picture.
Palestinian terror and Jewish terror alike make it plain: illicit Jewish settlement in the heart of a Palestinian population, in the form of over 100 unauthorized outposts, creates a clear and present danger to the settlers’ personal security – but not only theirs. It also undermines Israel’s national interests and national security.
First, the facts. More than half a million Israelis and around three million Palestinians currently live in the West Bank. That’s six Palestinians for every Israeli. Moreover, most of the Palestinian population lives along Route 60, a major artery leading from Hebron through Bethlehem to Jenin. Along that road, 95.5 percent of the population is Palestinian and just 4.5 percent is Israeli. That’s 22 Palestinians for every Israeli.
As one example, Hebron, Hamas’ bastion in the West Bank, is home to some 300,000 Palestinians, with 800 Jewish Israelis living in their midst. In the Nablus and Jenin areas, where the recent attacks originated, there are 1.2 million Palestinians and a mere handful of Jews.
West Bank settlements aren’t all the same. The main settlement blocs are located in areas where there’s a consensus that they will be under Israeli sovereignty in any future diplomatic agreement.
The communities in the main blocs mostly lie to the west of the separation barrier in areas without a large Palestinian population. They therefore have little friction between Israelis and Palestinians. They’re home to around 360,000 Israelis, making up 75 percent of all Israelis in the West Bank. And indeed, they aren’t the main theater of conflict.
These settlements ultimately serve as a fig leaf to cover up the outposts, thanks to settler leaders’ false claim that there’s no difference between Betar Ilit, on the pre-1967 border between Israel and the West Bank, and Homesh, an isolated outpost in the heart of a Palestinian population. Every place these rogue settlements have sprung up was carefully chosen to create Jewish contiguity in the middle of a Palestinian area. The deeper a settlement is rammed down the Palestinians’ throats, the better it serves its goal – preventing a separation between the two populations and instead creating constant violent friction between them, in the service of a destructive vision of a Jewish state with millions of Palestinians who have no civil rights.
Anyone who thought this radical minority wouldn’t dictate the national tone was wrong. Whether they are “running for the hilltops,” as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir advocated, or carrying out “civilian retaliatory operations,” it seems as if the yoke of the law has been removed.
Their cynicism knows no bounds. The Israel Defense Forces is under attack from the politicians, who demand more and more resources to protect the settlers, despite the clear knowledge that there’s no airtight protection in the impossible reality they themselves created – one in which Israelis and Palestinians are pressed up against each other every day. The military also knows quite well that employing tactics of destruction, killing, and constant pressure – the fruit of the fevered brains of politicians who mostly lack any real security experience – will only expand the ranks of terrorist recruits.
The extremist, messianic right has a single, stated goal, which it doesn’t hide – fulfilling the divine promise of sovereignty over the entire Land of Israel, regardless of the results of annexing millions of Palestinians. In their view, since the high road of total annexation through celebratory legislation has been blocked, chaos on the ground and a bloody reality can be a bypass road to unilateral annexation of the West Bank.
Because the political situation doesn’t permit annexation, even via a cabinet decision, the only way to achieve this goal is with blood and fire – by dismantling the Palestinian Authority and creating a power vacuum. We’re approaching the end of this process now.
The increased friction and its contribution to increasing terrorism would force the security services to take forceful action against the sources of terror. This would necessarily increase the number of civilian casualties. And should the defense establishment capitulate to the pressure from messianic politicians, it may well abandon the policy it has wisely adopted until now – waging an uncompromising war against terror while enabling the millions of Palestinians who aren’t involved in it to have decent lives.
The inevitable result would be an escalation in friction and violence. This would draw more regular troops and reservists into the area, culminating in the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, a full reoccupation of the West Bank, and direct Israeli control over the lives of millions of Palestinians without any exit strategy. And thus, thanks to terrorism and IDF brigades, people who call themselves “Zionist” will accomplish the destruction of the Zionist vision.
At a time when Israelis are (rightly) focused on fighting the destruction of Israeli democracy, the threat to the Zionist vision posed by messianic extremists with control over policy in the West Bank is coming true. The pace of events doesn’t allow these twin threats to be dealt with sequentially. It’s essential to stop the irresponsible annexationists before they force us all into a violent reality from which there is no exit.
Arie Pellman was deputy director of the Shin Bet security service and is currently a member of Commanders for Israel’s Security.