Like old Soviet and North Korean subs, the new INS Drakon features an unusually large sail. But military experts can guess what it’s for.
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submarine under construction in Germany features an unusually large sail, one that likely packs a very potent punch.
Experts believe the submarine, the future INS Drakon, will store and launch nuclear-tipped cruise missiles in its sail. If true, the missiles will be a seagoing part of Israel’s mysterious nuclear arsenal, which the Middle Eastern country has never formally admitted to having.
Drakon was photographed last week at its launch in Kiel, Germany. Submarine expert H I Sutton reports the submarine is a modified Dolphin II-class, with the hull several meters longer than previous submarines. The new submarine will also have, like previous Dolphin IIs, an air independent propulsion system that allows a submarine to remain submerged far longer than other non-nuclear powered submarines.
Klar zum Fluuuuuten..;-) #dragon ist langsam bereit für den Stapelhub. #INSDragon @IDF @thyssenkrupp pic.twitter.com/VA8xhDjjTH
Sutton and naval analyst Matus Smutny believe it is likely the large sail will conceal cruise missiles—and nuclear-tipped cruise missiles at that. The missiles would be stored vertically in the sail and then launched straight up, a rocket-booster motor accelerating it away from the submarine. Once the cruise missile reaches subsonic speed, maneuvering fins pop out and the onboard turbine engine takes over propulsion. This is a common technique for submarine-launched cruise missiles, from the NATO Tomahawk land attack cruise missile to Russia’s Kalibr.
Most submarine-launched cruise missiles are launched from torpedo tubes or vertical launch silos along the top of the submarine’s hull. Torpedo tubes, however, have a set diameter of 533mm, restricting the diameter of the cruise missile. If the cruise missile is wider than the torpedo tube, designers must pick a different launch scheme.
One possibility is to store them in launch tubes along the top of the hull, like submarine-launched ballistic missiles in the U.S., Russian, French, and U.K. navies. However, Drakon is considerably smaller than U.S. Navy submarines, with a smaller hull height, so a large cruise missile would not easily fit. Adding a hump behind the sail, like Ohio-class submarines, might require a lengthy redesign.
In 2016, North Korea unveiled its Sinpo-class ballistic missile submarine (SSB). Sinpo was notable for its throwback missile storage system, storing a missile in the sail like the old Soviet Navy Golf-class submarines. The Golf-class could store three RF-11 nuclear-tipped missiles in the sail, partly as a function of the size of the submarine and partly as a function of earlier, more primitive missile technology.
Drakon likely has a similar arrangement. Earlier Israeli submarines did not have this larger sail and launched cruise missiles from their torpedo tubes. This raises the question: If the cruise missile is larger, why is it larger?
The answer: Iran. The Block IV variant of the seagoing Tomahawk missile, the most common variant in service, has a range of 900 miles. Iran, a geopolitical opponent of Israel, has for more than two decades attempted to build nuclear weapons. From a launch position off the coast of Israel in the Mediterranean Sea, a cruise missile must have a range of up to 1,700 miles to ensure all of Iran is in reach.
Israel may not launch a preemptive strike against Iran, but it must ensure that any Iranian nuclear facilities, and deployed nuclear weapons, are within striking range of its own weapons. A cruise missile that can do so must physically store twice the jet fuel supply of a Tomahawk cruise missile, likely making it too large to launch via torpedo tube.
Israel is one of nine nuclear-armed countries, and is unique in being the only country that has not publicly declared itself a nuclear power. Israel maintains a policy of nuclear ambiguity meant to make its enemies unsure of its capabilities, and therefore reduce an adversary’s confidence in a successful surprise attack. The Arms Control Association assesses Israel as actually owning 90 nuclear weapons. Israel and South Africa are believed to have conducted a joint nuclear test in 1979, in the South Atlantic Ocean, an event known as the Vela Incident.
Israel’s weapons are likely spread out across its air, land, and sea forces, with nuclear gravity bombs for F-16 fighters and nuclear warheads for cruise missiles aboard existing Dolphin I-class submarines among its likely nuclear forces. Israel also maintains a force of Jericho II and III missiles; while Jericho III has the range to strike Iran, the missiles are also in fixed positions and can be destroyed in a first strike.
Israel’s new submarine is likely built with one adversary in mind: Iran. Iran’s military and political leaders have repeatedly vowed to destroy Israel, making the prospect of Tehran developing nuclear weapons an unsettling possibility. If it does, Israel’s ability to retaliate, in the form of the future INS Drakon, could be the stabilizing force that prevents a nuclear war.
Kyle Mizokami is a writer on defense and security issues and has been at Popular Mechanics since 2015. If it involves explosions or projectiles, he’s generally in favor of it. Kyle’s articles have appeared at The Daily Beast, U.S. Naval Institute News, The Diplomat, Foreign Policy, Combat Aircraft Monthly, VICE News, and others. He lives in San Francisco.
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