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By Joseph White, Global Automotive Correspondent

Greetings from the Motor City!

Here in Detroit the biggest event in the next six days will be this Sunday’s NFL football showdown between the Detroit Lions and the San Francisco 49ers. Winner goes to the Super Bowl! Go Lions! Ya gotta believe!

But let’s face it, for many people the biggest game this week is Wednesday’s Tesla earnings report and Elon Musk’s fireside chat with analysts. We stay in our lane at the Auto File. No more Lions talk. We’ve got your Elon call scorecard and plenty more below.

One more thing: The Auto File covers U.S. election year politics only when it affects the auto sector – and don’t worry, it will.

But Reuters has a team of reporters, editors, photographers, video journalists and data specialists sorting through the static. Stay up to speed on all the developments in the contest to set the direction for the world’s largest economy (including the car business) by signing up here for the new weekly newsletter, On the Campaign Trail.

Let’s get rolling!

Today –

• • Tesla confronts the skeptics

  • Western automakers fuel China’s EV exports

  • Saudi Arabia’s EV dreams short out

Elon Musk at a European Jewish Association conference in Krakow on Monday. REUTERS/Lukasz Glowala

Every Tesla quarterly financial report is an event. Wednesday’s edition will be watched especially closely considering the recent downdraft in the overall EV market.

Investors will be hanging on Elon Musk’s every word about demand, future sales growth targets and profit margins. The timing for the launch of the long-awaited “$25,000 Tesla” Model 2 lineup – the next driver for volume growth – is the No. 1 question on Tesla’s IR site ahead of the Wednesday’s call.

Keep in mind that investors consider Tesla one of the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks driving the market to new records, not a lowly Detroit auto stock. That’s why Musk’s threats to shift artificial intelligence projects out of Tesla unless he gets a bigger stake in the company get attention.

Tesla is expected to make a profit selling EVs, unlike most legacy automakers and rival EV startups. Analysts expect Tesla’s gross profit margins edged up in Q4 to 17.7%. However, that’s roughly 40% below the pre-price war peaks of 2022 and 7.4 points below a year ago.

That difference applied to a $50,000 Model Y amounts to $3,700 a vehicle less flowing into the cash drawer.

Once upon a time, Elon Musk could promise 50% annual growth and wave away questions about demand. Not anymore.

Tesla has slashed prices for its best-selling Model Y in the United States, Europe and China. BYD took the lead in global EV sales during the fourth quarter. Volkswagen is challenging for the EV market lead in Europe.

The growth in consumer demand for EVs of all kinds appears to be slowing down – certainly for legacy automakers. EV sales in Germany slumped after the government cut subsidies – a fresh reminder that many mass market consumers aren’t willing to pay a premium to go electric.

Amid all this, Tesla is acting more like a traditional automaker – discounting to spur demand, pausing assembly lines and struggling with supply chain snafus. Company operatives are taking the Cybertruck on a multi-city tour of China – no more relying on the wedge-shaped, stainless steel pickup to sell itself.

Tesla’s Shanghai assembly line. Reuters/Aly Song

More than one in five vehicles exported from China last year came from factories run by Western automakers, according to new data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

Tesla is one of the top Western exporters, shipping thousands of vehicles from Shanghai to Europe and other markets and helping to propel China to No. 1 in the ranks of auto exporting nations, ahead of Japan.

Ford, Volkswagen and other legacy automakers in China are also shipping more Chinese-assembled vehicles abroad as they  struggle with overcapacity and falling demand for their vehicles.

Shipping cars from low-cost Chinese factories to overseas markets is one way to sustain profits and employment, pending long-term restructuring of operations. It’s also a good way to invite a trade backlash – like Europe’s threat of new tariffs on Chinese-made EVs.

Lucid management and investors in happier times. Reuters/Andrew Kelly

As a hedge against the electric vehicle revolution’s threat to oil demand, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has plowed $10 billion into EV projects, including a factory to assemble luxury Lucid EVs and Lucid itself. The Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) owns 60% of the EV startup.

So far, not so good. The Saudi factory has built just 800 vehicles. The Kingdom’s efforts to foster an EV production supply chain and manufacturing ecosystem remain far short of ambitious goals. Lucid’s share price has plummeted by more than 80% during the past year.

Shares in money-losing EV startup Fisker jumped over the past two days from a rock-bottom base after the company disclosed it has reworked the terms of a debt agreement in ways that open the door to alliances with other companies.

Fisker also assured investors it expects to sell 5,000 vehicles built last year but not delivered, generating cash. The company said it is in discussions with 100 potential dealers.

Fisker shares are still trading just below $1 a share on the New York Stock Exchange. They were as high as $28 two years ago.

Stellantis  will aim for global commercial vehicle leadership by 2030, and launch an “offensive” in North America, rival Ford’s base, CEO Carlos Tavares said Tuesday. Stellantis will challenge Ford’s Ford Pro commercial vehicle business in the North American and European commercial vehicle markets – just as Ford’s Bronco off-road SUV brand has attacked Stellantis’ Jeep franchise.

Indian conglomerate JSW said it will invest nearly $5 billion in electric vehicle projects in eastern India. JSW operates across India’s energy, steel and heavy infrastructure sectors.

Prologium is considering an IPO and expects to start making batteries at a factory in France by 2027, the Taiwanese company’s CEO said Tuesday. Prologium is working with Mercedes on solid state batteries.

Danish software company Monta raised $87 million to further development of software for EV chargers.

Volkswagen shares jumped after analysts said company executives were upbeat about 2024 during a call.

Iveco and BASF will collaborate on recycling batteries from the Italian commercial truck maker’s electric vehicles.

United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain said the union is not ready to endorse U.S. President Joe Biden for re-election, but he made it clear he’s not likely to support his Republican rival, Donald Trump. Fain is in Washington for a conference. Biden may address the UAW legislative conference later this week.

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