ANALYSIS: New Zealand Football chief executive Andrew Pragnell has pledged that the All Whites will play next in March “and consistently thereafter” in the wake of their fixture list being raised as an issue by off-contract coach Danny Hay.
So what do their options for fixtures look like in 2023? And is there a chance of regular contact with Australia’s Socceroos, who they just played twice, losing 1-0 in Brisbane and 2-0 in Auckland last week?
As things stand, the period through to the 2026 World Cup, to be played in the United States, Canada and Mexico in June and July that year, is a blank slate as far as the All Whites are concerned.
The Fifa international match calendar, which sets the timings of international windows – the periods where clubs have to release their players for national team duty – only runs to the end of 2024.
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There has been plenty of speculation as to what it could look like after that and a project is under way to determine what it will look like, stemming from Fifa president Gianni Infantino’s failed push to have the World Cup contested every two years.
But for now the only thing that’s concrete is that there will be five two-match windows in 2023 and five more in 2024 – in March, June, September, October and November each year.
When it comes to gazing into a crystal ball as to what the next two years will look like as far as the All Whites are concerned, you have to start with their commitments in Oceania, though it’s not yet known exactly what they will be.
The Oceania Nations Cup is next due to be played in June 2024, having been cancelled in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.
It was supposed to be hosted by New Zealand then and NZ Football will surely look to host it again, as a relatively straightforward way of securing All Whites matches at home, albeit against lowly opponents.
What’s less clear is what weight will be placed on the Nations Cup. In previous years it has served as the first stage of World Cup qualifying, with the top four or six teams advancing, and has also offered a place at the Fifa Confederations Cup to the winner.
But that international tournament no longer exists and the Oceania Football Confederation was set to uncouple the Nations Cup from World Cup qualifying in 2020.
The middle of 2024 will also hopefully feature an appearance by New Zealand at the Paris Olympics, which could be prioritised.
World Cup qualifying will likely begin later that year, though the exact form it will take is unlikely to become clear until there is clarity over the international calendar for 2025 and 2026.
What’s already known is that Oceania’s pathway to the World Cup is changing, with the tournament expanding to feature 48 teams rather than 32, as has been the case since 1998.
The top team from the region will qualify directly in 2026, rather than having to navigate an intercontinental playoff, while the second-placed team will still have a chance via a new-look playoff, where they will likely have to win twice against higher-ranked teams.
All of that is a long way off here in 2022, where the next World Cup in Qatar is still two months away.
The next six windows, from March 2023 to March 2024, will therefore be a time for friendly matches, and organising them will test NZ Football’s negotiating skills and its willingness to spend money to get a talented generation of male players on the park on a regular basis.
Since their last World Cup appearance, in South Africa in 2010, the All Whites have played 39 friendlies, including 20 against teams from Asia and 10 against teams from North and Central America and the Caribbean [Concacaf].
They’ve also played four against teams from Europe and those three regions will be where NZ Football goes looking for matches first and foremost.
The next Asian Cup is due to take place next June, though it could yet be shifted to early 2024, as it is without a host following the decision of China to give up the rights as it maintains tight Covid-19 restrictions.
Regardless of whether it moves or not, top Asian teams should be free in March, as well as in September and October, before they begin their World Cup qualifying campaigns.
Concacaf nations are set to be busy in March, completing the latest edition of their Nations League, but some could be looking for matches in June, ahead of the Gold Cup (also currently without a host) and in the back half of the year and early 2024.
With regard to Europe, the key date is October 9, which is when the draw for Euro 2024 qualifying will be made.
Once it is completed, there are set to be seven groups featuring five teams, which means there will be 31 teams with two free matchdays for friendlies in 2023 (not 35, as four teams – Croatia, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands – will use those free matchdays to contest the Uefa Nations League finals next June).
In November 2019, the All Whites filled gaps in the Euro 2020 qualifying schedules of the Republic of Ireland and Lithuania, and it would be a disappointment if they couldn’t arrange a similar window of activity at least once next year.
There were a total of 1779 days between the last two All Whites home matches – Sunday’s loss to the Socceroos at Eden Park and the 0-0 draw with Peru in the first leg of their World Cup playoff in 2017.
The gap until the next one should be considerably shorter, with Pragnell repeatedly stating his intent to have the All Whites (and the Football Ferns) play at home at least once a year going forward.
But who might they lure down here in 2023 to follow Australia, South Africa and Jamaica – the only nations to have played friendlies in New Zealand in the past decade?
NZ Football will have to open its wallet and Asian and Concacaf teams will be the likely targets.
Pragnell has also made positive noises about making trans-Tasman football a more regular occurrence, now that the New Zealand and Australian men’s teams have met for the first time in 11 years.
Both countries should be free in March, but going again so soon would probably be overdoing it.
They should also both be free in September and October, which might be a good opportunity, as the Socceroos will have World Cup qualifying commitments until September 2025 at the earliest, after that.
2011: 3
2012: 13
2013: 7
2014: 5
2015: 3
2016: 9
2017: 12
2018: 4
2019: 2
2020: 0
2021: 3
2022: 6
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