Asia rebounds on dovish rate hopes

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets

By Wayne Cole, Chief Correspondent, Treasury

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Asian equities have started the week with a solid bounce – well, all but China where lower interest rates seem to have only reinforced investors’ concerns about its economy.

Wall Street and European stock futures are also higher, perhaps anticipating at least dovish guidance from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, if not an actual rate cut from the latter.

In the Middle East, fears mounted of a widening conflict following a rocket strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, which Israel and the United States blamed on Lebanese armed group Hezbollah. Oil prices inched up after the news, while some flights at Beirut airport have been cancelled or delayed due to insurance risks.

Passersby walk past in front of electric screens, displying Japan’s Nikkei stock quotation board, which the average surged to a record high, outside of a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan February 22, 2024. REUTERS/Issei Kato

Stock futures are fully priced for a quarter-point easing by the Fed in September and even imply a 12% chance of 50 basis points. There is 70 basis points of easing priced in by Christmas and rates are seen at 3.6% by the end of 2025, which is where markets think the new neutral is.

Investors are divided on whether the Bank of England will ease at its meeting on Thursday, with futures showing a 52% probability of a cut to 5%.

The Bank of Japan holds its meeting on Wednesday and markets imply a 66% chance it will hike rates by 10 basis points to 0.2%, with some chance it could move by 15 basis points.

Also due this week are the U.S. jobs report for July, closely watched surveys on U.S. and global manufacturing, and Eurozone gross domestic product and inflation data.

The U.S. Treasury will outline later on Monday how much in bonds it plans to sell for the quarter, while China’s politburo meeting could reveal more stimulus following surprise rate cuts last week.

For Wall Street, around 40% of the S&P500 by market worth report this week, including tech darlings Microsoft, Apple, Amazon.com and Facebook parent Meta Platforms.

Expectations are lofty, so any hint of disappointment will test the mega-caps’ sky-high valuations. Options imply Microsoft’s shares could rise or fall almost 5% after its results late on Tuesday.

And just a note on U.S. politics: PredictIT now shows Trump at 53 cents and Harris at 50 cents. A couple of weeks ago, Trump was at 64 cents and Harris at 27 cents.

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

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