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Clashes have occurred between the Sudanese military and paramilitary forces (RSF). Various media have reported that More than 400 people have been killed and thousands wounded since the fighting began in the last Saturday. The residents are spending their days in fear and unrest. This political instability in Sudan is not today. It has a long bloody history behind it.
On April 11, 2019, Omar al-Bashir, who had been in power for nearly 30 years, was overthrown in a military coup. An interim government comprising military and civilian leaders was formed under the leadership of Abd al-Snah Hamdak. Originally, the country was run by the Military Council formed after the uprising. Later, in the face of international pressure, the Sovereign Council (SC) was formed from the Military Council. Awad Ibn Awf, Bashir’s trusted defense minister, betrayed and encouraged the country’s military to seize power. Many political analysts have opined that this uprising was carried out for the benefit of the West. But, meanwhile, power struggles between military and civilian leaders continued.
Later in October 2021, a military coup took place again. This time, SC chief General Abdel Fattah Al Burhan and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) chief General Mohammad Hamdan Dagalo aka Hemedti made the uprising. Then came the matter of merging one lakh members of RSF with the main army. After the merger, a power struggle ensued over who would lead the entire army. The latest addition to the conflict between the RSF and the army is the clash between the two factions that began on Saturday.
Who is RSF?
RSF was formed in 2013. There is another history behind the formation of RSF. In 2003, a rebellion broke out in Sudan’s Darfur region under the rule of Omar al-Bashir. The region’s minority non-Arab tribes (Fur, Jaghawa and Masalit) started this rebellion demanding autonomy with fuel and arms support from the United States. Bashir took a strict stance in suppressing this rebellion. He used it to suppress the rebellion of Janjaud, an Arab tribe in the region. Later, RSF force was formed with them in 2013. Since then, mainly in Darfur, the Sudanese army and the RSF have been working together to suppress the rebellion. Civil war is still ongoing in the Darfur region.
By fomenting rebellion in the Darfur region, the US has actually pushed Darfur towards secession. What is the real interest of the US in Darfur? Meanwhile, the conflict between the RSF and the army over power reached its peak. Both sides blame each other for the attack. However, it is not yet clear who carried out the attack first. To identify the culprits behind the Darfur civil war, we need to focus on the secession of South Sudan from Sudan.
In 1899, the British established full control over Sudan by defeating the ruler of Sudan, Abdulsnah Ibn Muhammad. Since then, Sudan has been known as a British colony. Sudan continued to be governed by Egyptian governors appointed on the advice of the British government. Later the British ruled Sudan by dividing it into two regions. Muslim governors were appointed for the north and Christian governors for the south. This is how the British ruled Sudan from 1924 to 1956. Sudan gained independence from the British on January 1, 1956.
Another incident happened at this time. With the help of the British, Christians began to arrive in South Sudan from Ethiopia, located in the eastern part of Sudan, to try to change the demography. This made the minority Christians the majority in South Sudan. Meanwhile in 1955 civil war started in the country. The Christian-dominated south feared that the Muslim population of the north would lead the entire independent Sudan. Because the whole of Arabia including Egypt has a good relationship with the Muslims of the northern region. In this situation, the British took measures to give autonomy to the southern region. But the Muslims could not accept it. Basically, this started the civil war in Sudan. This civil war continued till 1989. On June 30 of that year, Colonel Omar al-Bashir seized power in Sudan through a bloodless uprising. As soon as he came to power, he banned all forms of politics in the country. Introduced Islamic law, prohibited usury. Within five years he established control over the entire Sudan.
In 1996, Omar al-Bashir organized the presidential election. He was the only candidate in the election held on October 16. As a result, he was elected president of Sudan unopposed. After the presidential election, the United States declared Sudan a terrorist state. After that, Omar Al Bashir became a hostage to the West in international politics due to various events.
In 2003, various non-Arab Muslim ethnic groups in Darfur engaged in an armed struggle against Bashir, aided by US fuel and arms. Capitalizing on this danger in Darfur, the US forced Bashir to make a deal with South Sudanese leaders. On January 9, 2005, Bashir signed the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) with South Sudan. The southern region will enjoy autonomy from the treaty and a referendum on independence will be held after 6 years. Meanwhile, after the treaty, a southern leader died in a plane crash and civil war broke out again. In this incident, the United Nations peacekeeping force was deployed in Sudan on March 24. In 2009, the International Criminal Court (ICC) charged Bashir with genocide in Darfur and issued an arrest warrant.
In 2011, a referendum on independence was held in South Sudan under the auspices of the United Nations. 98 percent voted in favor of independence. Finally, on July 9, South Sudan emerged as an independent Christian state.
After the secession of South Sudan, Sudan’s financial situation began to deteriorate. Protests were held in the country against Omar al-Bashir. In 2018, the people of that country staged the largest protest in thirty years against the increase in commodity prices.
Bashir issued a state of emergency to control the situation. But the last defense is no more. On April 11, 2019, a military coup toppled Omar al-Bashir, who had ruled for thirty years. We know the next course of events. The RSF and the government army are working together to suppress the insurgency
Using Geopolitical Complexities and Contradictions for Africa’s Economic Growth
Senior researcher at South Asian Studies, University of Toronto, Canada.
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Using Geopolitical Complexities and Contradictions for Africa’s Economic Growth
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Within the context of geopolitical changes and the Russia-Ukraine crisis, African leaders have to absolutely rethink and take strategies to save their straddling economy. Both situations have created increasing problems across the world. The underlying causes are well-known and therefore allowing its possible effects to largely influence the already-stressed economic development processes will spell disaster and tragedy for Africa and its 1.4 billion population.
Several years have elapsed after the United Nations declared Africa’s political independence. It was precisely May 25, some 60 years ago but still Africa is far away from attaining its economic freedom despite the huge natural and human resources there. The resources are still untapped, development remains shabby while about 60% of the population impoverished.
Some say leadership attitudes and approach are holding back development in Africa, others blame external factors including the opaque relations adopted by foreign players. Without an effort to negotiate and identify development priorities, without an effort to cut off self-centric attitudes we will be prolonging our economic growth for a century. If we attribute the level of under-development to imperialism and colonialism, why not then primarily blame African leaders, their cabinets and the legislative organs. Does Africa need weak public institutions and civil society?
At this stage of Africa’s development, is it necessary to examine thoroughly how the geopolitical changes are influencing Africa’s unity and development, how it is impacting on African countries across the continent. The time has arrived to look at the development processes and review obstacles, the participation of foreign players and the emerging new world order, as well as the implications for Africa.
On the other hand, a number of external players are swiftly dividing Africa and its desire for sustaining the unity that has been attained by using anti-Western slogans and rhetoric, using political confrontation, urging African countries to employ hatred for the participation in Africa’s economy. In fact, Africa is sharply divided, diverse conflicts are taking its heavy toll on developments there.
African Union simply lacks a unified approach to the continent’s development. Strengthening African unity has long been a sought-after goal that has never been achieved. As the need for regional integration and the reasons for past failures become better understood, new efforts are being made to strengthen economic and political ties among the continent’s many countries. In order to foster an integrated development, regional organizations have been created in different parts of Africa. But on the whole they have done little to improve developments in the region. In many cases, African leaders continue to have the most extensive bilateral relationships with their former colonial powers. On the opposite direction, Russia and China are critical of Western and European connections to Africa.
In terms of working with the Africa, Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, during her weekly media briefing on March 23, indicated that African countries need to consolidate their political independence and sovereignty while overcoming acute socioeconomic issues and development. She expressed appreciation and respect for the sovereign equality of states and non-interference in their internal affairs. But on the other side, lashed at the aggressive policies of the United States, its approach towards Africa. She also blamed African leaders for their inability to employ “common sense” and in their own interests and, most importantly, within the principles of the supremacy of international law, especially in the current geopolitical changes rapidly shifting from the unipolar system to multipolar world order.
She further added: “Russia’s active work on the African track is a significant part of the entire scope of measures to develop constructive cooperation with a great number of countries that pursue an open and balanced foreign policy guided by common sense and their own interests and, most importantly, within the principles of the supremacy of international law and indivisible security with the central and coordinating role of the United Nations.”
According to her explanation, Russia advocates for a more equitable and democratic international order that will promote reliable security, the preservation of unique cultural-civilizational identity and equal opportunities for the development of all states. This can only be guaranteed within the framework of a multipolar system of international relations and cooperation based on a balance of interests of developing world. In a nutshell, Africa’s future has to be in line with this overall global development.
Due to its illusive Western and European dreams which it has pursued for the past three decades following the collapse of the Soviet era, Russia is shifting and now moving to Africa. It is consistently expressing the desire to fight growing neo-colonial tendencies in the continent to win support and sympathy from African leaders and among the 1.4 billion people, while Russia has invested little in the development of infrastructures, in the industrial sector and other employment-generating sectors across Africa.
The neo-colonial tendencies should remain exclusively as the challenging task for African leaders, the regional organizations and the African Union. Russia should focus on what it could concretely do in the various economic sectors rather than continue accusing the United States and Europe for the under-development, economic obstacles and political problems across Africa. Experts say African leaders, with the political mandates from their electorates, should take the sole responsibility for African problems and find African solutions within their professional skills and competencies.
It implies that Russia is under-rating, down-grading African leaders and their development policies for allowing the growth of neo-colonialism. By advising African leaders what political direction is necessary to adopt, Russia is directly interfering in the internal politics of Africa. In practical terms, African leaders are answerable to their electorate, and the electorates have the duty of making objective assessment of their governments’ performance. It is widely acknowledged that state institutions are weak, and most high-level decisions relating to mega-projects first have to be discussed by parliament, or get the necessary approval from the cabinet. The system of checks and balances are still questionable in many African countries.
Some experts say the world need cooperation rather than fragmentation. Cooperation rather than confrontation is the bsis for emerging multipolar world. For instance, Ivan Timofeev, Russian International Affairs Council’s Director of Programs and also Head of “Contemporary State” program at Valdai Discussion Club, writing under the headline “Can Russia Really Break Away from the West?” argued that long before relations between Russia and the West spiralled into a comprehensive political crisis, Russian leadership and officials were enthusiastically voicing ideas about developing ties with the rest of the world.
After the Soviet collapse, especially from the 1990s, former Foreign Minister Evgeny Primakov pursued most activities within the framework of a multi-vector foreign policy. The gradual growth of contradictions with the West accelerated the formation of ‘pivot to the East’ ideas, although their implementation was slow. However, the current crisis in relations between Russia and the West, for all its appearances, is irreversible, and has driven an increase in the number and quality of ties with countries which are outside the control of the United States. Nevertheless, Russia itself is unlikely to be able to cement and consolidate them alone. However, it exemplifies the very possibility of challenging the political West on fundamental issues. Not everyone is ready to follow the same path, but the very fact of its presence is an event which has a global dimension.
The task is to create reliable opportunities for modernisation through interaction with the non-Western world. Here, success is far from guaranteed. The ‘world majority’ is closely embedded in Western-centric globalization, although the existing system has its own problems. Russia’s links with its Western neighbours have been accumulating for centuries. Even such a powerful crisis like today’s cannot cut them overnight. Within the West itself, there is both an ideological and a purely material stratification. Behind the facade of general political slogans lies an extremely heterogeneous political and mental space.
According to Ivan Timofeev, it is necessary to take into account the fact that the countries of the world majority which are friendly to Russia, still have their own national interests. They are unlikely to sacrifice them simply for the sake of friendship with Russia. Many non-Western countries maintain close relations with the West. A considerable number of them still benefit from Western-centric globalization. Moreover, many use a modernising process according to the Western model, preserving their cultural identity, and if possible, political sovereignty, but do not hesitate to use Western standards in the fields of economics, production, management, education, science, technology, et cetera. Rather, Russia will have to engage with a variety of cultures and ways of life.
Last year, I attempted to have an insightful understanding of the geopolitical changes, the emerging multipolar configuration and its implications for Africa. Whether it means Africa has to break away from the United States and Europe? During the discussions with Dr. Mohamed Chtatou, an experienced professor of Middle Eastern politics at the International University of Rabat (IUR) and Mohammed V University in Rabat, Morocco, told me how can Africa develop itself away from the greed of some developed nations and still maintain contacts with them. He clearly underscored the system of approach. There is no easy answer to this question, as it is a complex issue that involves many different factors. However, there are some steps that Africa can take to promote sustainable development and reduce the influence of developed nations. Here are a few of the steps Dr. Mohamed Chtatou suggested:
Promote good governance: African nations should work to establish transparent and accountable systems of governance that promote the rule of law, protect human rights, and combat corruption.
Invest in education and human capital: Developing the skills and knowledge of the African people is crucial to building a sustainable and prosperous future for the continent. Investing in education, health care, and other social services can help to build a strong and healthy workforce.
Support local industries: African nations can promote economic development by investing in local industries, rather than relying solely on exports of raw materials. This can create jobs, generate income, and promote sustainable growth.
Foster regional integration: African nations can work together to promote regional integration and reduce dependency on external actors. This can involve developing common trade policies, investing in regional infrastructure, and promoting cooperation on issues of mutual interest.
Encourage foreign investment on African terms: African nations should strive to attract foreign investment on their own terms, by negotiating fair and equitable deals that benefit both the investor and the host country. This can help to promote economic development and reduce dependency on aid.
In view of its abundant resources, its ambitious youth, its vibrant society, and its geo-strategic potential, Africa needs to achieve unity and full integration, at once, to face the immense greed of the developed world and to defend its interest in the best possible ways.
Dr. Mohamed Chtatou further discussed the question of increasingly growing neo-colonialism and related tendencies in Africa. The use of the term neo-colonialism first became widespread, particularly in reference to Africa, shortly after the decolonization process following the end of World War II, which came after the struggle of several national independence movements in the colonies. Colonialism is a policy of occupation and economic, political or social exploitation of a territory by a foreign state. Neo-colonialism refers to a situation of dependence of one state on another. This dependence is not official, as is the case between a colony and a metropolis.
The brutal exploitation of the populations as well as the appropriation of the resources of the continent by the countries of the North are at issue. This is what justifies that today, France and other Western countries are implementing actions, notably by helping the development that colonization had slowed down. Neo-colonialism in Africa refers to the indirect and continued domination of African countries by former colonial powers, or by other external powers, through economic, political, and cultural means. Some aspects of neo-colonialism in Africa include:
Economic exploitation: African countries are often forced to rely on exports of raw materials, while importing manufactured goods at higher prices, leading to a one-sided economic relationship.
Political interference: External powers often interfere in the political affairs of African countries, supporting leaders who are favorable to their interests, and opposing those who are not.
Cultural domination: The cultural influence of former colonial powers can still be felt in Africa, as Western cultural values and norms are often seen as superior to traditional African values.
Debt dependency: Many African countries are burdened by debt, which often originated from loans given by external powers. These debts can lead to dependency and compromise their sovereignty.
Land and resource grabbing: External powers or corporations often acquire large amounts of land or resources in African countries, often displacing local populations and leading to environmental degradation.
There may be some contradictions and complexities when discussing and analysing Africa within the context of geopolitical changes. In terms of business, the United States and Europe stand as the traditional markets for Africa’s exports, earn significant revenues fro these markets, and therefore difficult to abandon over night. Most of the European capitals and the cities in the United States are popular holiday destinations for the African elites and the middle-class and business people. The diaspora is closely knitted by family culture. These are the essential features that unite them. The relationships were distinctively different during the political independence struggle, and now much relates to economy.
In most cases, it is further argued that Africans speak most European languages, more or less understand the Western and European culture, with all the diversity of the West. This is one greatest ultimate advantage for preserving their cultural identity, and if possible, political sovereignty. It simply facilitate establishing and maintaining ties with friendly ties with Western and European countries.
The design for an alternative has to significantly address development concerns and the population’s living standards, these are the primary task of African leaders. Obviously, Africans are making fundamental decisions in the areas of economic development, thus external players with investment capital and entrepreneurial partnership are seen likely able to cement and consolidate their desires for strong society in the global dimension. These have to be located within the frame of the African Union concept.
In other words, the African Union is far from its objectives and, contrary to its reference model, is not prospering. This sad fact raises several questions, both about African integration and about the legitimacy and usefulness of the African Union. The topic seems all the more relevant as African nations see regional integration as an important opportunity to introduce political stability and increase trade. In this regard, Kwame Nkrumah, the first president of Ghana and one of the founding fathers of African unity said:
“There can be no real independence and economic independence and true economic, social, political and cultural development of Africa without the unification of the continent”. But how should this unification take place? Is the African Union, based on the European Union model the only solution for Africa? Is it capable of curing Africa of all its ills? What if regional integration under the European model is not adapted to Africa?
Most African experts believe that for Africa global stability is a necessary factor for growth, but it must first take control over its own growth agenda. Of course, Africa has to forge an intra-African trade and investment, modern agriculture and focus on industrialising as basis for the newly created single market. As Jakkie Cilliers, Head, African Futures and Innovation, ISS Pretoria, recently argued “the continent will suffer if current efforts to instrumentalize Africans in this divided world continue.”
He said that “Africa needs debt relief, Chinese trade and investment, expanded relations with the EU, capital from the US and more trade with the rest of the global south. It needs an agricultural revolution to ensure food security and accelerate trade integration to provide a larger, more attractive domestic and foreign capital market. Fully implementing the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement can unlock more rapid growth than any other scenario.” Meanwhile, as the elephants fight, the grass suffers, according to Jakkie Cilliers, Head of African Futures and Innovation at the Institute of Security Studies, Pretoria in South Africa.
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Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expresses desperate fears and is highly nervous over possible clandestine threats by the United States and its Western allies to derail the second Russia-Africa summit scheduled late July 2023. With the rapid changing geo-political situation, mostly due to its ‘special military operation’ in the neighbouring Ukraine which has adversely affected Africa’s economy and its 1.3 billion population, Russia plans to hold a summit to review and patch up the straddling relations.
After the first Russia-Africa summit held in October 2019, Russia has not delivered on several bilateral agreements that were signed with African countries. Moscow has not delivered on most of its pledges and promises that usually characterized talks with African leaders over these years. According to summit reports, 92 bilateral agreements were pinned with a number of African countries. Russia is only passionate for signing tonnes of agreements. A classical case was during the critical period of coronavirus, Russia agreed to supply 300 million Sputnik vaccines through the African Union but disappointed with delivery. It, however, sprinkled few thousands to a couple of African countries to muscle-flex its soft power.
Besides that however, Russia’s economic presence is hardly seen across Africa. There have been several development-oriented initiatives over these years, without tangible results. As expected, these weaknesses were compiled and incorporated in the ‘Situation Analytical Report’ by 25 policy researchers headed by Professor Sergey Karaganov, dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics.
The report criticized Russia’s current policy and lukewarm approach towards implementing bilateral agreements in Africa. It pointed to the lack of coordination among various state and para-state institutions working with Africa. According to the report, Russia plays very little role in Africa’s infrastructure, agriculture and industry. This 150-page report was presented in November 2021, which offers new directions and recommendations for improving policy methods and approaches with Africa.
On the other side, anti-Western rhetoric and political confrontation has become the main content of the foreign policy, instead of concentrating on its economic paradigms or directions within its capability to raise economic influence in the continent. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s early April interview with the local Russian news site Argumenty i Fakty and copy posted on the Foreign Ministry’s website, vehemently reiterated fears that the United States is attempting to wreck the Russia-Africa summit.
“Indeed, the United States and its allies are doing all they can to isolate Russia internationally. For example, they are trying to torpedo the second Russia-Africa Summit scheduled to take place in St Petersburg in late July. They are trying to dissuade our African friends from taking part in it,” the Russian top diplomat said.
“However, there are fewer and fewer volunteers willing to sacrifice their vital interests for Washington and its henchmen and to pull the chestnuts out of the fire for the former colonial powers,” Lavrov noted. “Attempts to undermine our cooperation with the states of the global South and East will persist, although their success is far from guaranteed,” he added.
Lavrov said questions relating to the critical infrastructure development in Africa were on agenda of forthcoming summit. Russia views the summit as “a systemic element of Russia-Africa cooperation, and will be filling it with meaningful content in close cooperation with African friends,” Lavrov noted in the interview.
“Its agenda includes such items as technology transfer and development of industry and critical infrastructure in Africa. We are going to discuss in detail Russia’s participation in projects on digitizing African states, developing their power engineering, agriculture and mineral extraction, and ensuring their food and energy security,” he further explained.
“I believe that the summit will strengthen Russia-Africa cooperation, provide a vector for the development of the entire range of relations with Africa in a mid-term perspective, and make a tangible contribution to the effective resolution of regional and international issues,” Lavrov added.
Further down the interview, Sergey Lavrov pointed to multifaceted and mutually advantageous cooperation between Russia and Africa. Russia would continue ensuring national security and sovereignty, continue building interstate cooperation on the principles of international law, equality, mutual respect and consideration for interests both to Russia and Africa.
Russia sees growing neo-colonial tendencies as a threat to its participation in economic sectors in Africa. It consistently attributes Africa’s economic instability, development obstacles and pitfalls to the United States and its European allies. But the U.S. State Department, in a statement, did not address Lavrov’s accusations directly, but said Washington was pursuing strong relationships with African countries “to address the shared challenges we face. Our Africa policy is about Africa.”
The statement quoted U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken as saying the United States “(doesn’t) want to limit African partnerships with other countries. We want to give African countries choices.” Shunned by most Western countries since its invasion of Ukraine just over a year ago, Moscow has turned its efforts to countries in Asia and Africa. Lavrov has been particularly eager to nurture ties with Africa, visiting the continent twice this year as well as making a tour in mid-2022.
In terms of working with the African continent, experts say the African continent remains unconnected with and little known in Russia. And Russia presence is well-noted only for anti-Western rhetorics instead of concentrating on what it could concretely do in Africa. It is straddling to regain influence, Russia has to be serious with policy initiatives. It is at the bottom level with its cultural and people-to-people relations often referred to as public diplomacy.
At the same time, it expects and persuade Africans to simply sacrifice their Western and European cultural and even ‘family ties’ for the sake of friendship with Russia. It is a typical irrational step – extremely difficult to do. Historically, despite the negative effects of slavery which everybody knows, Africa-American diaspora is closely-knitted by culture and by blood, and now forms the undeniable core of development processes of both societies.
Professor Yemi Osinbajo, Vice President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, argues that another great resource that will enable Africa to cope with a rapidly changing world is its diaspora. He asked African leaders, public and private institutions, and businesses to take advantage of the diaspora outside the continent, relate with them for their education and professional skills for development inside Africa. Aside from remittances from the African diaspora, which is substantial, rising from $37 billion in 2010 to $96 billion by 2021, the African Diaspora is a source of strength for Africa.
As well-known the world is going through a highly complex and somewhat confusing time. In addition to the United States, there are China, Russia, the European Union, the UK, India and Brazil as dominant regional powers. In comparison, China is Africa’s largest bilateral trading partner and about $254 billion in trade in 2021. That said, Africa also has the United States and Europe, and a number of Asian countries as their traditional markets for exports, earn significant amount of revenue from those regions.
Does this situation mean the severing of all ties with the United States and Europe? What is Russia’s market for Africa? What is the level of Russia’s engagement especially in the industrial sector, development of needed infrastructures and other relevant sectors for employment creation in the continent? How much revenue do African countries earn from Russia? African leaders rather travel there with the ‘begging bowls’ and give ‘ear-deafening applause to offers of free grains, while their own agricultural practices are rudimentary and vast expanse of their land remains uncultivated.
Professor Fyodor Lukyanov, Chairman of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Research Director at the Valdai Discussion Club, and Editor-in-Chief of Russia in Global Affairs journal, told this author in an interview that Russia’s engagement depends largely on several factors. Notwithstanding all that, Africa has its strengths and weaknesses based on history, but the balance is positive in this emerging new world. Most of the potential success (especially transforming the economy and raising trade levels) depends on African countries themselves and their ability to build up relations with outside powers on a rational and calculated basis.
In comparison with other players, Russia largely plays words to win support or sympathy and most often rattles investment slogans with Africa. The United States, European Union members, China, India, Turkey and even the Gulf States discuss Africa from different perspectives, but more importantly follow ways to establish their economic footprints on the continent.
Reports show that Russia has been strengthening its relations, meeting African ministers and delegations these several years. It has even opened trade missions with the responsibility of providing sustainable business services in a number of African countries. In addition, more than a decade since the establishment of the Coordinating Committee on Economic Cooperation with Sub-Saharan Africa. There are also several Joint Commissions on Trade and Economic Cooperation, and of course, there are 38 Russian diplomatic offices in Africa.
Across Africa, when officials and experts are discussing the situation in various sectors, hardly mention with specificity infrastructures undertaken, completed and commissioned in the continent. A lot more important issues have received little attention since the first African leaders’ gathering. Russia has little achievements and few success stories to show at the next summit, according to another policy report by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), a reputable policy think tank, published in 2022.
The report noted the dimensions of Russian power projection in Africa, new frontiers of Russian influence and a roadmap towards understanding how Russia is perceived in Africa. It highlighted narratives about anti-colonialism and described how these sources of solidarity are transmitted by Russian elites to the African public. For seeking long-term influence, Russian elites have oftentimes used elements of anti-colonialism as part of the current policy to control the perceptions of Africans and primarily as new tactics for power projection in Africa.
In the context of a multipolar geopolitical order, Russia’s image of cooperation could be seen as highly enticing, but it is also based on illusions. Better still, Russia’s posture is a clash between illusions and reality. “Russia, it appears, is a neo-colonial power dressed in anti-colonial clothes,” says the report.
Simply put, Moscow’s strategic incapability, inconsistency and dominating opaque relations are adversely affecting sustainable developments in Africa. Thus far, Russia looks more like a ‘virtual great power’ than a genuine challenger to European, American and Chinese influence.
The next report titled – Russia’s Private Military Diplomacy in Africa: High Risk, Low Reward, Limited Impact – says that Russia’s renewed interest in Africa is driven by its quest for global power status. Few expect Russia’s security engagement to bring peace and development to countries with which it has security partnerships.
While Moscow’s opportunistic use of private military diplomacy has allowed it to gain a strategic foothold in partner countries successfully, the lack of transparency in interactions, the limited scope of impact and the high financial and diplomatic costs exposes the limitations of the partnership in addressing the peace and development challenges of African host countries, the report says.
African countries where Russia intends to assist to ensure peaceful environment, will require comprehensive peace and development strategies that include conflict resolution and peacebuilding, state-building, security sector reform, and profound political reforms to improve governance and the rule of law – not to mention sound economic planning critical for attracting foreign direct investment needed to spur economic growth.
Joseph Siegle, Director of Research and Daniel Eizenga, Research Fellow at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, in series of articles these few years, offered excellent comprehensive insights into possible reasons why military governments delay to fast-track or hesitant in making smooth return to constitutional government.
The two researchers reminded the African Union and ECOWAS to invoke the African Convention for the Elimination of Mercenarism, which went into effect in 1985, prohibiting states from allowing mercenaries into their territories. Borrowing from its Syria playbook, Moscow has followed a pattern of parachuting to prop up politically isolated leaders facing crises in regionally pivotal countries, often with abundant natural resources.
Many African experts explained that the interim military leaders in Africa are vacillating, turning down proposals to change over to constitutional rule. Their decisions to remain in power absolutely violates “Silence the Guns” policy adopted by the African Union. Holding media briefing after talks with his Malian counterpart, Lavrov has often reiterated that the threats posed by frequent terrorist attacks, it is not the best time to hold democratic elections. It implies that Russia encourages military rule in Africa and that “one should not change horses in the middle of the stream,” according to official website sources.
Moreover, this is one area in which the great powers and emerging powers can put aside rivalries and work together with ECOWAS and the African Union on an initiative to stamp out terrorism in Africa, especially in the Sahel. Many simply forgets the fact that an outstandingly good example using regional integration arrangements to promote peace and security on one hand and pursue economic development, trade and industry on the other.
During the 36th Ordinary Session of the African Union (AU) held in Addis Ababa, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE), interestingly used the phrase – “African solutions to African problems” – seven times during his speech delivered on February 18. Besides that, he offered the suggestion that existing conflicts and disputes on the continent, it necessary to mobilize collective efforts to resolve them and “must be confined to this continent and quarantined from the contamination of non-African interference.”
Notwithstanding the current geopolitical games, African leaders have to utterly resist the landscape being used as playing fields, leaders adopting excellent strategies could still benefit from all sides, especially not to join the political confrontation but rather remain neutral. The perspectives, decisions and actions of these global actors, including in multilateral forums could impact on economic development across Africa.
In practical terms, what is needed today is systematic economic transformation, industrialization and upgrading employment generating sectors, therefore Africa can take full advantage of the global complexities and uncertainties. With external players, the focus has to be on practical economic diplomacy. The decisive factor in this context will then be knowledgeable leadership seriously committed to good governance and economic development.
Understandably, Russia too has to clearly define its parameters despite the growth of external player’s influence and presence in Africa. While Russia appears consolidating relations, it is only full of symbolism, its policy model (in distinctive opposite that of China and its passion for building infrastructures across Africa) is characterized with bilateral agreements without appreciably visible results. Yet, in this critical times it strategically seeks enormous support, in any form, from Africa’s regional organizations and from the African Union.
Despite the current conditions of global changes the irreversible fact is that Africa simply needs genuine external investors, without frequent rhetorics and without geo-political slogans. Africa has already attained its political independence and sovereignty, these sixty years in the process of economic transformation. With its 1.3 billion population, Africa is a potential market for all kinds of consumable goods and for services. In the coming years, there will be an accelerated competition between or among the external players over access to the resources and, of course, for economic influence in Africa.
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On April 2, Kenya’s President William Ruto in a speech extended an olive branch to the opposition and pleaded them to hold off Monday’s “mother of all demonstrations” in Nairobi. Opposition leader Raila Odinga immediately in a speech communicated that they would not held demonstrations and heeded the government call for negotiations and talks.
For the last three weeks, every Mondays and Thursdays, large demonstrations, sporadic protests, chaos, mayhem, lootings, police tear gas and water cannons have become part and parcel of the denizens of Nairobi. This comes after former Prime Minister, and Kenya’s perennial opposition leader Raila Odinga called for demonstrations on the rising cost of living and electoral malpractices during last year’s elections.
As a nation that has a history of bloody post-election violence, Kenya risks descending into unprecedented political turmoil as the opposition is adamant in holding demonstrations every Mondays and Thursdays – and if talks fail to bear fruits. Already violent counter-demonstrations, the burning-down of a mosque and a church in Kibera, the looting and vandalism of property belonging to former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga, police violence against journalists and a political atmosphere imbued with dangerous rhetoric and chest-thumbing political discourses from the government and opposition blocks raise serious concerns for the country.
But why is Kenya facing a political crisis again seven months after a highly contested election process?
Dynasties versus Hustlers
To understand the current weekly demonstrations that are rocking the nation and bringing life and business to a halt in Nairobi, one has to grasp the political discourse of the election campaigns of August 2022. When then President Uhuru Kenyatta politically side-lined his deputy William Ruto and endorsed and campaigned for the opposition candidate Raila Odinga in the elections, a seismic shift occurred in the Kenyan political landscape. How can the president support an opposition candidate? It was a first in Kenyan history.
However, this played into the hands of William Ruto. As the elections approached, the economy hit rock bottom, inflation sky-rocketed basic commodities and Kenya witnessed its highest youth unemployment. I was conducting ethnographic fieldworks in Nairobi as a PhD student and the anger and frustrations with the government of Uhuru Kenyatta was palpable in all my interactions. When Uhuru kenyatta left office, he was unpopular and his own political constituency voted en masse for his rival William Ruto.
More significantly, the elections of 2022 will be remembered for its dynasties and hustlers narratives. The then embattled Deputy President and Presidential candidate William Ruto successfully framed the elections as a contest of the haves and the have-nots. For him, it was a class war of the poor masses and the detached super rich. Candidate Ruto convincingly embellished himself as the candidate of the poor, a man who walked to school bare-foot and sold chicken on the road side. His life story resonated with the majority of Kenyans. He claimed to be a simple hustler who is being politically sabotaged by the political dynasties of Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga – two scions of the founding fathers of the Kenya. In the end, William Ruto won the elections with a slim margin – he had beaten the odds.
The meaning of William Ruto’s victory
How should we read, understand and comprehend President William Ruto’s election victory? Kenyan politics since independence has been an arena where the political elites and their descendants jockeyed for power and influence. And indeed few were able to “invade” this upper-class, exclusive and secluded political strata of Kenya’s social structure. One would remember the humiliations and indignities unleashed upon the late George Saitoti – a man who herded cattle as a small boy in Maasailand and rose to become Kenya’s Vice President – in the run up to President Daniel Arap Moi succession politics.
Saitoti was politically marginalized and rendered powerless during the succession politics of the ruling KANU in the run up to the elections of 2002. He was replaced by Musalia Mudavadi, himself the son of former powerful Home Secretary Moses Mudavadi who was Moi’s right-hand man in the 80s. Crucially, George Saitoti was passed over in succeeding Moi and inheriting the independence party KANU. President Moi picked the then young Uhuru Kenyatta as his successor. The political predicaments that befall Deputy President William Ruto in the run up to the 2022 elections had a precedent in Kenya’s political history.
President Ruto, himself a student of Nyayo politics and a wealthy politician, understood and grasped Kenya’s elite politics. Uhuru Kenyatta’s endorsement of Raila Odinga was no surprise to the man from Sugoi; for he himself took part in bringing-down George Saitoti during Moi succession politics as a KANU loyalist.
William Ruto’s ambition to succeed Uhuru Kenyatta has already been mythologized; how he planted politicians loyal to himself in the run-up to the elections of 2017 in the Jubilee Party primaries and all over populous constituencies across the country has become a legend in Kenyan political strategy. This had irked Uhuru Kenyatta and soon William Ruto was gradually politically side-lined after the 2017 elections.
Ruto had amassed a political muscle of money and loyalist men and women for the 2022 elections. Moreover, his populist hustler versus dynasties narrative was advantageous to his campaign. His campaign slogan was “freedom is coming”. This was a “freedom” from the Kenyattas and the Odingas and the exclusive and detached political elites; candidate Ruto and his surrogates preached this line of argument all over the country in small churches, market places and in packed stadiums. And with a dire economic situation William Ruto had captivated the imaginations and captured the attentions of Kenyans from all walks of life.
Of shareholders, IMF and GMOs
Nevertheless, William Ruto’s government commenced its tenure with a wrong footing. The government is implementing IMF-induced austerity measures in the economy. Vital fuel subsidies were scarped and this translated to even more price increases on basic commodities. While the government argues that in the long-term prices will reduce, in an inter-connected global economy rife with risks and unforeseen crises, there are no guarantees. We indeed live in what the German Sociologist Ulrich Beck termed Risk societies. A war (Ukraine), a pandemic (Covid-19), a pollution and any unprecedented risks can alter and disrupt the global economy and planned government policies. And the brunt of these risks will be faced by the poor masses. Moreover, the government approved the distribution of GMO seeds to farmers as crops fail continue alongside draughts and short rainfalls. The productivity of GMOs is in question, and with increasing food prices, Kenyans face hard times and risks in the coming years as the government’s Treasury Cabinet Secretary Njuguna Ndung’u warns.
Moreover, the recent government appointments of loyalists and political cronies have raised eyebrows. President William Ruto is rewarding his political foot-soldiers and positioning himself already for the elections of 2027. The appointment of 50 Cabinet Administrative Secretaries will dent a big hole into tax payers money. Furthermore, the Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s terming of the UDA government as a firm owned by shareholders was not promising of any progress. By waging a “war” against the dynasties and allocating government positions to the so-called shareholders (or political cronies) are we witnessing the dynastyfication of the Rutos and the Gachaguas?
Rising cost of living
President William Ruto came to power when the economy was in tatters. In his election campaigns he promised that he will reduce the cost of living immediately after taking power. Ironically, the government cut vital subsidies on fuel and other basic commodities worsening the country’s inflation. Fuel price which powers Kenya’s vibrant service industry and the private sector increased exponentially. Today, the majority of Kenyans face increasing prices of fuel and electricity and other basic commodities like maize flour, milk, water and vegetables.
The current demonstrations are centered around a strangulating cost of living in the country. Moreover, droughts have wrecked havoc in the Northern parts of Kenya rendering millions face starvation. President William Ruto came to power with a lot of hopes for Kenyans. He promised change and an abrupt economic transformation which I think he over-communicated and over-promised to the electorate. Seven months into his government the people have grown impatient and the opposition is capitalizing on this.
Babapolitics is Back
More importantly, since coming to power, the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party has been on the course of establishing absolute political hegemony in the political arena. To the chagrin of the opposition party whose many of its members have defected to the ruling party rendering parliament an organ of the executive. Moreover, the government has started a process of re-structuring the independent election commission despite the opposition shunning the process.
Kenya’s opposition has been politically cornered and “battered” by the government. Gasping for political oxygen the opposition has no other option but to call for mass demonstrations. Raila Odinga, the man Kenyans call Baba, is a veteran orchestrator of mass actions in Kenyan politics; and when he speaks, despite being in the opposition, the political ground tremors.
Five decades in opposition politics and losing five presidential elections, Raila Odinga knows when the ground is fertile for demonstrations and mass actions against governments. Nevertheless, the recent rapprochement between the government and the opposition and the reconciliatory tone of the leaders has eased anxieties in the country. Kenya has evaded Monday’s “mother of all demonstrations” but only by a whisker.
Maandamano politics: vice or vital?
Opposition leader Raila Odinga is haunted by the political ghosts of 2018 handshake with Uhuru Kenyatta. The French philosopher Jacques Derrida conceptualize a ghost, ghosts and ghostly as what is hidden, what is implicit, what is ignored, what is not seen, what is overlooked. In March 2018, Raila Odinga betrayed the masses who demonstrated from him almost 6 months and the Supreme Court ruling that nullified the 2017 elections on the grounds of electoral malpractice. Like nothing happened and ignoring all the struggles, he had a political truce and pact with President Uhuru Kenyatta of which its terms remained ghostly; most probably Uhuru assured him of his support in the 2022 elections while Odinga suspended holding the government accountable. The handshake ignored the killings of two small girls Samantha Penda “Baby Pendo” and Stephanie Moraa in one of those demonstrations as police fired bullets in spree and the many others killed, maimed and brutalized.
The Maandamano politics of demonstrations and protests, birthed, nurtured, shaped and sustained Kenyan democracy over the years. Kenyans would not have enjoyed the current constitutional political rights without the 1990s demonstrations and protests of which Raila Odinga was one of its architects. However, Maandamano politics can also be misused by the political elites. Elite political pacts can render the fruits of Maandamano politics useless as in the case of 2018 handshake.
The people have the rights, as enshrined in the constitution, to demonstrate and protest against the power that be, at all times; the masses and civil societies should snatch the raison d’ etre of Maandamano politics from the political class and power-hungry leaders, lest they render it a political tool for talks and political pacts in the post-election periods.
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