Belarus Strengthens Military Ties With Russia – OilPrice.com

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Second, whereas a few months ago, when Minsk reacted positively to the Polish army moving its troops away from the Belarusian border, now, Lukashenka stresses that the troops relocated a mere 100 kilometers away (and can return in only a few hours) and are being reinforced with new weapons systems. Finally, the Belarusian leader said that he had received information through private channels that Ukraine was considering missile attacks on targets inside Belarus. According to other Belarusian officials, warnings about possible attacks came from Ukrainian business circles with whom Minsk preserves confidential channels of communication (Author’s interviews, October 25).
Overall, it is noteworthy that Lukashenka summed up the rationale behind the RGF’s deployment by saying that Belarus’s main goal is to ensure that external forces do not drag Minsk directly into the war.
Belarusian officials emphasize that this deployment was triggered in accordance with the military doctrine of the Union State. Indeed, the latter document, in its current November 2021 edition, stipulates that the RGF is to be deployed “in the period when military threats are building up (the period of a direct threat of aggression) upon the decision by the Supreme State Council of the Union State” (Postkomsg.com, November 4, 2021). In other words, it requires a unanimous decision by the Belarusian and Russian presidents and their mutual acknowledgement that military threats to the Union State’s security have escalated to a point where a military attack on its territory is highly probable.
Once that decision has been made, the Joint Command of the RGF will be formed to manage the joint forces and adjust the grouping’s existing military plans in line with developments on the ground. The Belarusian army forms the core of the RGF, which also includes Russian forces from the Western Military District and the Baltic Fleet (Minsk Dialogue, November 3). Also, the 2021 military doctrine specifies that the RGF can operate on its own as well as jointly with each country’s national armed forces.
On October 17, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense held a briefing for 19 foreign military attaches, including from NATO member states, devoted to the RGF’s deployment (Mil.by, October 17). The head of the Department for International Military Cooperation, Colonel Valery Revenka, provided further details on some parameters of the joint grouping. According to Revenka, up to 9,000 Russian troops, about 170 tanks, 200 combat armored vehicles and 100 guns and mortars with a caliber exceeding 100 millimeters were expected to arrive in Belarus. Importantly, he stressed that these troops would be stationed in four locations in eastern and central Belarus—that is, not near the Ukrainian and NATO borders. This signals the defensive nature of the deployment. In line with this, Revenka emphatically declared that Belarus considers the RGF as purely an instrument of strategic deterrence.
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