Letting the Ukraine war overshadow the struggle of Belarus’s beleaguered opposition movement is playing into Alexander Lukashenko’s hands, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya tells the Guardian
‘Dictatorship is contagious,’ says Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. “If Belarus is forgotten, Lukashenko can do whatever he wants.” Three years have passed since Tsikhanouskaya, leader of the Belarusian democratic coalition, fled to Lithuania and, to many in the country’s opposition, it feels like the world has lost interest in Belarus.
The 40-year-old teacher was forced to leave following the brutal crackdown on mass protests by the longtime ruler, Alexander Lukashenko, after he claimed a landslide victory in the 2020 presidential election.
Despite no prior political ambition, Tsikhanouskaya had run for president after her husband, the opposition candidate, Syarhei Tsikhanouski, was arrested on the campaign trail.
Many, both inside the country and in the west, considered the election to have been rigged, with the independent vote-counting platform Golos (Voice) reporting that she had won the election and was the de jure president.
In the past year, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and with Belarus declared a co-aggressor in the war, global interest in the country’s internal problems, lukewarm to begin with, has plummeted.
“Belarus is only discussed in the context of the war, or its dependence on Russia,” says Tsikhanouskaya.
The fact that Belarus has been reduced to the status of a vassal state of Russia has not helped its people, she says. “Belarus is under the influence [of Russia],” she acknowledges, but adds: “People are still resisting – people are against the Russian occupation.”
Meanwhile, human rights abuses in Belarus, which began long before 2020, continue unabated. There are now no active human rights organisations left in the country, more than 3,000 Belarusians have been prosecuted on charges of “extremism” and just under 1,500 people in detention are considered political prisoners.
Tsikhanouskaya herself was sentenced by a Minsk court to 15 years in absentia for treason, “conspiracy to seize power” and other charges in March.
Until recently, it was rumoured that her husband, who is serving an 18-year sentence, had died in prison. Deaths of political prisoners are not uncommon in Belarus – a dissident artist, Ales Pushkin, died in prison in July, with the cause of his death still unknown.
At the beginning of July, Belarusian propaganda outlets circulated a time-stamped video of Tsikhanouski in a prison cell. It brought some relief to Tsikhanouskaya and their two children, but questions remain.
“I saw him, but I couldn’t recognise him,” she says. “I watched this video probably 10 times to recognise familiar features and gestures.
“He was filmed inside a big cell, and it made me think it was staged. They gave him a mattress and a pillow, but I know that his conditions are awful, and he is [sleeping] in a 1-metre-by-2-metre sack,” she adds.
Information about the plight of Belarusian dissidents is hard to find. Independent media outlets inside the country have been obliterated.
Nearly 500 Belarusian journalists are now living in exile. This plays into Lukashenko’s agenda, says Tsikhanouskaya.
“If Belarus is forgotten, he can do whatever he wants. He lands a plane [by force], or agrees to bring nuclear weapons into the country, and then he waits for the [international] reaction, but nothing happens. But dictatorship is contagious, and others are learning from his textbook.”
What especially angers her is that the EU and other countries are still in dialogue and sometimes in business with Lukashenko, despite his crimes and in breach of sanctions.
She mentioned a recent investigation into allegations that Belarusian wood is being imported into the EU through Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. “Sometimes one has to decide whether you want to support democracy or do business,” she says. “Yes, the money will be tight, but democracy is everyone’s responsibility.”
Tsikhanouskaya acknowledges that many of her supporters are getting impatient but reminds her supporters of their victories, including a contact group on Belarus in the Council of Europe and a separate consultative group with the European Union.
The meeting of the US president, Joe Biden, and Tsikhanouskaya in July, during the Nato summit in Vilnius, was also a vote of confidence in her leadership, she says.
Tsikhanouskaya says she will not give up the fight, taking inspiration from her efforts to help her son, 13-year-old Karniei, who is deaf. “My older son was born with a disability. Since he was two, I have been working with him every day, rehabilitating him. I knew I was responsible for him and his future. Even when I felt despair, I never stopped.
“[It is the] same here. I am not sure when our victory will come, whether it will be one year or five. So I go on, and sometimes I fall, and others help me get up and keep moving.
“Why am I doing it? I cannot be idle because I am responsible for others. And those who have their loved ones in prisons right now, those who feel responsible for the future of Belarus, will never stop either.”