Thursday, May 05, 2022
A majority of voters think President Joe Biden shouldn’t seek reelection in 2024, and he would lose a rematch with former President Donald Trump by double-digit margins.
A new national telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and the Heartland Institute finds that 61% of Likely U.S. Voters believe Biden should not run for a second term as president in 2024. Only 28% say Biden should seek reelection, while another 11% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
If the next presidential election were held today, and Biden were running against Trump, 50% would vote for Trump while 36% would vote for Biden.
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The results would be somewhat closer with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as Biden’s Republican opponent. Forty-six percent (46%) would vote for DeSantis and 35% would vote for Biden if the election were held today, while another 11% say they would vote for someone else.
Forty-two percent (42%) of voters have a favorable impression of Biden, including 25% who have a Very Favorable opinion of him. Fifty-five percent (55%) have an unfavorable view of Biden, including 44% whose opinion of the president is Very Unfavorable.
“While 64% of black voters said they have a favorable opinion of Biden, only 39% want him to run for re-election,” the Heartland Institute said in an analysis of the survey results. “Among Hispanics, just 43% have a favorable opinion and only 31% want him to run in the 2024 presidential election. Women voters – a key to Biden’s 2020 victory – have soured on the president, with only 26% wanting him to run again.”
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The survey of 1,004 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on April 28 and May 2, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports and the Heartland Institute. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
While 77% of Democrats have a favorable impression of Biden, only 49% of them want him to seek a second term in 2024. Just 11% of Republicans view Biden favorably, and 85% of them say Biden shouldn’t run again in 2024. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 34% have a favorable impression of Biden, but only 21% believe he should run for reelection in 2024.
In a rematch with Trump, 73% of Democrats would vote for Biden while 89% of Republicans would vote for Trump. Among unaffiliated voters in a Biden-Trump rematch, 48% would vote for Trump and 27% would vote for Biden, while 17% would vote for someone else.
In a contest between Biden and DeSantis, 69% of Democrats would vote for Biden and 80% of Republicans would vote for the Florida governor, while unaffiliated voters would go for DeSantis by a 16-point margin – 47% to 27% – over Biden, with 19% of unaffiliated voters preferring someone else.
“Against either prospective Republican presidential candidate, Biden did not gain majority support for re-election among likely voters overall in any racial, gender, or economic demographic,” the Heartland Institute observed. “The highest support Biden received was among 40% of voters who earn more than $200,000 a year and want him to run again.”
Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters under 40 don’t think Biden should seek reelection in 2024, but in a rematch against Trump, voters under 40 would split about evenly – 40% for Biden and 39% for Trump. Among older voters, Trump would win a majority in a rematch with Biden. The lowest level of support for Biden is among voters ages 40-64, only 32% of whom have a favorable opinion of him and 25% think he should run for reelection in 2024.
While 51% of voters who are unmarried and childless have a favorable opinion of Biden, only 37% of those who are married with children view the president favorably.
Voters earning between $50,000 and $100,000 annually are most opposed to a second term for Biden, with 65% saying he should not seek reelection in 2024.
The leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion that would overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision has voters divided almost evenly over the landmark abortion ruling.
More than a year after he left office, former President Trump’s endorsement of candidates still matters – more even than the current occupant of the White House.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as Platinum Members.
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The survey of 1,004 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on April 28 and May 2, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports and the Heartland Institute. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.
We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.
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President Biden’s approval numbers posted every weekday
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