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A look at the day ahead in European and global markets

By Rae Wee, Correspondent

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Signs of a hawkish tilt by the Bank of Japan prodded a bit of life out of that country’s bond and currency markets on Wednesday, while most investors stayed focused on what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may have to say later in the day.

A summary of the  BOJ’s January meeting showed a growing view within the board that conditions were falling into place to pull short-term interest rates out of negative territory.

Japanese national flag is hoisted atop the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan September 20, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato

“After assessing the degree of macroeconomic effects of the Noto Peninsula Earthquake by monitoring its impact for about the next one or two months, the bank is highly likely to reach a point where it can normalise monetary policy,” one board member was quoted as saying.

A rate rise in Japan would be the first since 2007.

The release of the summary prompted a brief blip higher for the yen and the biggest jump in two-year Japanese government bond yields in two months, but elsewhere traders seemed to prefer holding to the sidelines until after the Fed.

A hold for U.S. rates in the Fed policy announcement later today is considered a done deal, so investors will focus on Powell’s press conference afterwards, and a potential  further turn in his once-hawkish stance or hints on how soon the central bank could begin easing rates.

The implied probability of a March rate cut has been pared back from above 70% at the start of the year to roughly 44%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

In China, animal spirits still seem to be lacking as the Year of the Dragon looms.

Official data showed that  manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth straight month in January, as the world’s second-largest economy struggles to regain momentum.

China’s blue-chip share index is headed for a sixth straight month of decline, the longest monthly losing streak on record, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is set for its worst January since 2016.

In the euro zone, inflation figures from Germany, its largest economy, are also due on Wednesday, a day ahead of data for the entire bloc.

German GDP data released on Tuesday showed its economy shrank in the fourth quarter, while France failed to grow.

That’s keeping pressure on the European Central Bank to ease rates sooner rather than later in order to stave off a deep downturn, with markets close to fully pricing in a 25 basis-point cut in April.

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