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POLITICO’s must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Brussels, by Jakob Hanke Vela.
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What’s driving the day in Brussels.
By NICHOLAS VINOCUR
with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH
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GOOD MORNING. This is Nick Vinocur, wishing you a happy Monday.
NEXT ON THE SHOPPING LIST: Kyiv expects to receive fighter jets from the West soon, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told POLITICO’s Suzanne Lynch. Shmyhal said he knows training Ukrainian pilots to use Western jets could take “six months or longer,” so it “should be started straight away, or as soon as possible.” Read the full interview here.
Buildup: Shmyhal’s call — hot on the heels of a pledge by Washington and Berlin to send tanks to Ukraine — echoes similar pleas from Baltic NATO members, including Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, who told Suzanne in Davos that he was more worried about a slowdown in Western assistance for Ukraine than a risk of escalation with Russia.
Pentagon warms to jet deliveries: According to our D.C. colleagues, “a contingent of [U.S] military officials is quietly pushing to Pentagon to approve sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.” A senior U.S. Department of Defense official told POLITICO: “I don’t think we’re opposed.”
Scholz not considering it: But German Chancellor Olaf Scholz doubled down on his opposition to sending fighter planes to Ukraine. “The question of combat aircraft does not arise at all,” Scholz said in an interview with Tagesspiegel published on Sunday. Write-up here.
Netherlands’ take: Earlier this month, Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra said he was ready to consider the delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. But an EU diplomat urged caution. “Ultimately, it would be up to the defense minister,” the diplomat told Playbook.
UKRAINE’S EU MEMBERSHIP BID: Ahead of an EU-Ukraine summit on Friday, Shmyhal also told Suzanne that Kyiv is aiming for full EU membership by 2026. That timeline is sure to make many EU officials uneasy, as despite the decision to grant Kyiv candidate status last June, the prospect of Ukraine joining anytime soon remains remote. The recent focus on Ukraine’s own corruption problem hasn’t helped things.
Managing expectations: One aim of Friday’s summit will be managing expectations — though some progress is expected in areas such as customs-free access for Ukrainian exports, mobile roaming and inclusion in the single euro payments area, Suzanne reports.
SPAIN ENTERS RING ON IRA RESPONSE: After seven EU countries blasted plans for a confrontational response to U.S President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (reported here first), Spain has joined the fray calling for a “green economy pact” to make Europe more competitive.
Keep it focused: While welcoming plans to reform EU state aid rules, Madrid says the focus of the bloc’s competition policy should be to “support the acceleration of transformative instruments,” namely renewable energy and power storage. More here for Pro subscribers from Barbara Moens and Paola Tamma.
The Spanish angle: The green focus is also in line with Spain’s push to generate 74 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2030.
Not a frugal: But unlike the Netherlands and the seven countries that signed last week’s letter (Finland, Estonia, Austria, Ireland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia), Spain isn’t saying “no” to new EU borrowing — just that it should be earmarked for “public goods” like the green transition or strategic autonomy, according to the Spanish non-paper seen by POLITICO.
Gentiloni on joint EU funds: Ahead of a two-day visit to Berlin, European Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni told FAZ he’s in favor of maintaining Europe’s competitiveness, in the wake of the U.S. green subsidies splash, through “new money.” He said: “We must, also as a signal to the financial markets, avoid the impression that we are just shuffling existing money around.” Gentiloni is scheduled to meet Finance Minister Christian Lindner, among others. H/t Pieter Haeck.
EX-NATO GENERAL WINS: Petr Pavel, a former NATO general and political independent, defeated former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš with 58 percent of votes in the second round of the Czech Republic’s presidential election over the weekend.
Last-ditch effort: Babiš swung hard to positions close to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s between the two rounds of the election, fanning fears of a NATO war with Russia and indicating he wouldn’t send Czechs to fight if another member of the alliance was attacked.
Czechs choose NATO: But voters embraced Pavel: “The values that he represented won — and that’s a very important message in these internally and economically complicated times,” Prime Minister Petr Fiala told an audience in Prague, according to local media.
Thirsty Twitter: On the lighter side, the 61-year-old victor created something of an online sensation as the world discovered him, with admirers swooning over Pavel’s trim gray beard and buzz cut. “Hot damn, Petr Pavel is DILFiest politician I’ve ever seen,” tweeted Average Dassault Enjoyer in one of many, many variations.
EUROPEAN COMMISSION QUESTIONED ON FENCES: Chief Commission spokesman Eric Mamer took no fewer than four questions from journalists Friday about a letter President Ursula von der Leyen sent to capitals amid new calls to build fences at the EU’s exterior borders to keep out migrants, Jacopo Barigazzi writes in to report.
In her letter, von der Leyen talks about “the mobilization of EU funds to support member states in reinforcing border control capabilities and infrastructure.”
Pro-wall coalition: The Commission is traditionally opposed to direct funding of border fences. But now it’s not just Hungary calling for a wall — 12 EU countries, including Denmark and Poland, last year urged the Commission to fund barriers “as a matter of priority,” showcasing the Continent’s shifting dynamics.
Bilingual version: Mamer repeated (in French and English) that the Commission’s line had not changed. He stressed that the wording on infrastructures comes straight from legal texts and that “there seems to be some misconception out there that we don’t finance any type of infrastructure … which is completely wrong.”
VDL cornered? “This discussion is a way to put her with her back against the wall,” said an EU migration official. As previously noted here, von der Leyen risks losing support on the center-left if she goes too far on migration, which could be problematic for her reelection as Commission president.
The Austria solution: Vienna wants €2 billion for a fence along the Bulgarian-Turkish border. Many officials reckon the Commission will fund anything around the wall (from staffing to technology), as long as it’s not the fence itself — freeing up EU countries to direct their own funds for the bricks and mortar.
EU OMBUDSMAN URGES MORE OVERSIGHT: The EU Ombudsman has written to European Parliament President Roberta Metsola in reaction to her proposals for anti-corruption reforms. In a letter that will be made public here at 10 a.m., which Playbook has seen, the Ombudsman urges stronger oversight of MEPs and greater transparency for meetings with lobbyists.
MOROCCO OFFENDED BY HUMAN RIGHTS VOTE: In a letter sent to Metsola late last week, Rabat expressed “disappointment, consternation and deep regret” over a resolution voted in the European Parliament this month that criticized Moroccan human rights violations against journalists, Eddy Wax writes in to report.
Taking a Rabat-tering: A total of 356 MEPs voted in favor of a text in Strasbourg on January 19 that called on Rabat to respect the freedom of the press and condemned the treatment of investigative journalists like Omar Radi, who have been imprisoned on trumped up sexual assault charges and denied a fair trial. Radi, sentenced to six years in jail and also accused of spying, had written about Hirak protests in the mountainous Rif region and dug into government corruption scandals. The Parliament vote also slammed Rabat’s use of Pegasus surveillance software and vowed to fully investigate allegations of corruption against Morocco in the Parliament.
BELGIUM TRIES TO SHRUG OFF BAD DIAMOND PR: As the EU is preparing a new round of sanctions against Russia, Belgium is fed up with being scapegoated on diamonds. The country is working with others to introduce a “watertight” traceability system for the gems, a Belgian official said. This could hurt Moscow more than if Washington or Brussels are flying solo.
The devil will be in the details. Will Belgium succeed in building a transatlantic coalition? Are consumers willing to pay more for diamonds, or does it still risk diverting trade away to other markets where traders are less diligent? Barbara Moens has the story.
ORBÁN SAYS NO TO NUCLEAR SANCTIONS: Hungary will veto any EU sanctions against Russia’s nuclear sector, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said Friday. More here.
ERDOĞAN TRIES TO DIVIDE AND CONQUER: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan again hinted in a televised speech on Sunday that Ankara may agree to Finland joining NATO but not Sweden, amid growing tensions with Stockholm. “We may deliver Finland a different message and Sweden would be shocked when they see our message. But Finland should not make the same mistake Sweden did,” he said. Reuters has the latest; here’s the backstory.
STOLTENBERG CALLS ON SEOUL TO HELP UKRAINE: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called on South Korea to increase military support to Ukraine overnight. In a speech at the Chey Institute for Advanced Studies in Seoul, Stoltenberg said Ukraine has an “urgent need” for ammunition. “At the end of the day, it’s a decision for you to make, but I’ll say that several NATO allies who have had as a policy to never export weapons to countries in a conflict have changed that policy now,” Stoltenberg said, according to a Reuters write-up. His next stop is Japan.
RUSSIA’S CAUCUS MEDDLING: Peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan despite the three-decades-long dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh is possible — but a Russia-backed oligarch is trying to stop it, writes Maurizio Geri, a former analyst on the Middle East and North Africa at the NATO Allied Command, in this fascinating opinion piece for POLITICO.
ZELENSKYY SEEKS BAN ON RUSSIANS IN OLYMPICS: Ukraine will start an international campaign to ban Russian athletes from competing in the Olympic Games to be held in Paris next year, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an address late Friday. Last night, Zelenskyy said he had written to French President Emmanuel Macron on the topic.
Specter of the Nazi Olympics: “As we prepare for the Paris Olympics, we must be sure that Russia will not be able to use it or any other international sporting event to promote aggression or its state chauvinism,” Zelenskyy said last night. “In the first half of the 20th century, too many mistakes were made in Europe that led to horrific tragedies. There was also a major Olympic mistake,” he added pointedly, in a nod to the 1936 Olympics in Berlin.
NOW READ THIS: Its war on Ukraine has severed Russia from the Western world — and created a rift within Russian society, pitting countrymen against each other and siloing them more than ever into information bubbles. Eva Hartog has spoken with those who find themselves cut off from their pro-Kremlin family and friends, for this story for POLITICO.
**POLITICO’s EU-China Correspondent Stuart Lau will take part in the conversation with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and EEAS Secretary General Stefano Sannino on January 31 at 10:45 a.m. CET in Brussels. Register to join in person or follow online.**
SCHOLZ PUSHES MERCOSUR DEAL: Olaf Scholz made a fresh appeal to the EU and the South American Mercosur bloc to swiftly finalize and ratify their long-delayed trade and political cooperation agreement, POLITICO’s Hans von der Burchard writes in to report. “The negotiations have now lasted long enough,“ Scholz told reporters during a visit to Argentina’s capital Buenos Aires on Saturday evening. Scholz and other EU partners like the Swedish Council presidency want the agreement to be ratified this year.
What’s the holdup? Although talks on the agreement were officially concluded in 2019, both sides are still negotiating an additional declaration to reinforce the deal’s environmental clauses. Argentinian President Alberto Fernández, however, said at the press conference with Scholz that he wants to use these additional talks to also address “the great asymmetries between the European economy and the economy of Mercosur … for example in the automotive sector.” That sounds a lot like reopening the carefully negotiated economic trade-offs within the deal, which risks further delays.
Seeing this evident risk, the German leader argued that although “there are certainly very specific, individual points from many sides that need to be discussed again,” this must be done “in a very practical way” and ensuring “that it does not take so many years again.”
Scholz on tour: The chancellor continued his South America trip, in Chile on Sunday and in Brazil today, where he is meeting new President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to also discuss the trade deal as well as necessary steps to stop Amazon deforestation.
DRUG SHORTAGES: Europe’s drug shortage problem has exploded into the open, with cough syrups, painkillers and common antibiotics becoming hard to find across the bloc. The problem, reports Carlo Martuscelli, is bad forecasting. Drug companies, which had ramped down production in response to a decrease in circulating infectious diseases (aside from COVID) were caught off-guard by the sudden spike in demand this winter. It’s all made worse by high energy prices that have weighed on pharmaceutical production.
ITALY-LIBYA GAS DEAL: Rome signed an $8 billion gas deal with Libya on Saturday as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visited the North African country for talks on energy and migration — the largest single investment in Libya’s energy sector in more than two decades. Details here.
IRAN ATTACK: Israel was behind the drone strike at an ammunition factory in Isfahan in Iran late Saturday, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing U.S. officials and people familiar with the operation.
— Agriculture and Fisheries Council; arrivals and doorsteps at 8:30 a.m.; press conference expected at 7 p.m. Watch.
— Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans in Mexico; meets with Secretary for Foreign Affairs Marcelo Ebrard.
— French Secretary of State for European Affairs Laurence Boone in Brussels; meets with Commissioner for Competition Margrethe Vestager and Vice President Margaritis Schinas.
— Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni in Berlin.
— Council President Charles Michel meets Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome at 3 p.m.
— German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Brazil; meets President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
— NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Tokyo.
STUDENTS IN TOWN: The Naples-based Nunziatella military academy, one of the oldest in the world, is bringing around 50 of its students aged 18 to 19 to Brussels for a four-day trip starting today. The students — among them women, who have recently been allowed to enrol in the school for the first time — will meet top Italian officials including EU Ambassador Piero Benassi and Secretary-General of the European External Action Service Stefano Sannino. “We don’t want it to be a one-off, but part of their training” said Ugo Celestino, a Commission official who studied at the Nunziatella and was involved in organizing the visit.
HAPPENING IN THE EP: A new exhibition has opened at the European Parliament to commemorate the 23rd anniversary of “¡Basta Ya!” (“Enough is Enough”) winning the Sakharov Prize. The popular citizens’ initiative was a reaction to the terrorism and violence of Basque separatist group ETA.
Dark tunnel: The main element of the exhibition is a so-called tunnel of hate, which is designed to give visitors a taste of the oppression faced by ETA opponents, as well as the courage of peaceful activists. “The idea is to put people in a place where they are not usually: surrounded by insults and aggression, to remember the feeling that we had for many years and that it can happen again, we have to be vigilant to combat fanaticism,” said the curator, José Ibarrola. Preview here.
Parliament President Roberta Metsola will open the exhibition on Tuesday. You can watch here.
BIRTHDAYS: MEP Cindy Franssen; Former MEP Sergio Cofferati; FTI Consulting’s Brian Carroll; Former European Parliament Vice President Miguel Angel Martínez Martínez; King Felipe VI of Spain; Former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney.
THANKS TO: Playbook reporter Ketrin Jochecová and our producer Grace Stranger, as well as Hans von der Burchard, Suzanne Lynch, Jacopo Barigazzi, Pieter Haeck and Eddy Wax.
CORRECTION: This newsletter was updated to correct an erroneous reference to the Spanish non-paper on the “green economy pact.”
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