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Russian dictator Vladimir Putin plans for a long standoff in Ukraine. His calculations are that a renewed Russian offensive that may start as soon as February or March could make his forces regain the initiative.
That’s according to officials, advisers and others familiar with the situation in Russia and the U.S., Bloomberg says. The full text is available here.
Nearly a year into an invasion that was supposed to take weeks, Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive in Ukraine, at the same time steeling his country for a conflict with the US and its allies that he expects to last for years, the article reads.
The renewed offensive may start as soon as February or March, the people close to the Kremlin said. Their comments confirm warnings from Ukraine and its allies that a new Russian offensive is coming and suggest it may begin before Kyiv gets newly promised supplies of US and European battle tanks, the piece suggests.
Putin’s determination presages another deadly escalation in his war as Kyiv prepares a new push of its own to eject his forces, dismissing any cease-fire that leaves Russia occupying its land. The Russian leader believes he has no alternative but to prevail in a conflict he sees as an existential one with the US and its allies, the people said. A new round of mobilization is possible as soon as this spring, they said, as the economy and society are increasingly subordinated to the needs of the war, the Bloomberg article says.
The Ukrainian Institute for the Future categorized the public data provided by the Ukrainian Air Force to analyze the growing efficiency of Ukraine’s air defenses against Russian missile strikes. Since October 10, 2022, Russia has launched 11 rounds of massive missile strikes across the country.
In the latest waves of missile strikes on Ukraine, Russia fired an average of 64 rockets, a decline from earlier attacks. Its stocks are possibly depleted. Russia has also reduced the frequency of attacks from eight days on average to 12-15 days. That comes as another confirmation that it’s short of stocks and needs more time to replenish the materiel to stage the attacks.
Ukraine’s air defenses shot down an average of 63 per cent of Russian missiles. Over the past two months, the average has been increasing, with efficiency reaching 78 per cent. The Ukrainian military has no system capable of intercepting and downing some types of missiles, like S-400 that Russia is using.
Russia could launch another round of missile strikes on Ukraine between February 7 and February 10 —12-15 days after the previous attack, and could fire up to 60 missiles, the analysts say. As the efficiency of Ukraine’s air defenses grows, the risks facing the energy system are in decline. Russia could use the hypersonic Kinzhal missiles in the attacks. Ukraine has no capacity to intercept this type of missiles.
Two of the missiles fired by Russia toward Ukraine on Thursday, January 26 were Kinzhal-type hypersonic missiles. The missiles hit critical infrastructure facilities in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Air Force Command General Yuriy Ihnat said on television.
“[The Russians] have quite a few of [Kinzhal missiles]. They hold them back to strike against the “most important strategic targets”. Unfortunately, this time, one of the “most important strategic targets” happened to be a facility in Zaporizhzhia, and an energy infrastructure facility in Kyiv. Their “strategic goal” is to leave the residents, an entire district in Kyiv without electricity,” Ihnat said.
On January 26, Ukrainian air defenses destroyed 47 of 55 Russian missiles, including 46 cruise missiles and a guided air-to-surface missile. The Ukrainian military has no weapons capable of intercepting Kinzhal-type missiles.
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