Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime is showing growing desperation as its war against Ukraine falls further into disarray.
Putin knows he is losing, and is doubling down on aggressive actions even as his strategic position weakens.
This means we are now entering the most dangerous phase of Putin’s ill-fated campaign. The United States and the West must manage this situation carefully. Instead of telling Russia what we will not do, we must make him concerned about what we might do. He does not want to make his war even harder by drawing us into it.
We must show strength to deter Putin (and the generals underneath him) from resorting to weapons of mass destruction or attacking NATO territory or forces, while giving the Ukrainians the means to fight and survive until Russia’s assault collapses.
The key to Ukraine’s survival is holding off Russian forces long enough for sanctions against Russia to have their impact, and for other patriotic leaders in Moscow to recognize the economic and military devastation Putin is inflicting on their homeland, and to stop it.
Putin’s desperation is evident. Consider the following steps taken in the past few days:
None of this is the action of a leader confident in victory. Quite the contrary, Putin is displaying all the signs of a man who knows that his gambit is failing. He is squeezed between a bogged-down military operation, on the one hand, and an economy in free-fall on the other. The last thing he wants is to make his situation even worse by dragging the US or NATO into the fight.
This points to two things.
The Ukrainians are doing exceptionally well: repelling Putin’s ground forces, cutting supply lines, denying air superiority. They have proven themselves a capable force that can and does absorb Western military assistance. They have an iron will.
The West must prove itself equally capable: by supplying Ukraine and staring down Putin’s threats. Putin would like to win this war through intimidation. We must show that we are not intimidated, and indeed determined to ensure that Ukraine survives while Putin drives Russia’s military and economy into the ground.
Ambassador Kurt Volker is a Distinguished Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. A leading expert in US foreign and national security policy, he served as US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations from 2017-2019, and as US Ambassador to NATO from 2008-2009.