The historian renowned for his track record of successfully predicting the outcome of US presidential elections has told the Miami Herald that he thinks Donald Trump is unlikely to make a successful bid for a second term in 2024.
Allan Lichtman, a professor of US political history at the American University, has devised a series of “13 keys,” or questions he uses to establish the likelihood of a candidate winning a presidential election, which he revealed in a recent book, “Predicting the Next President.”
He used the method to successfully project that Trump would win the 2016 election, when most pundits and bookmakers were ruling out the reality-TV star’s chances, and he predicted Joe Biden’s win last year.
His track record of successfully predicting the result of presidential elections dates back to 1984.
In comments to the Herald, Lichtman addressed speculation stirred by Trump that he would run for office again in 2024.
Some observers, including Sen. Mitt Romney, have said Trump is a shoo-in to be the next GOP presidential candidate if he decides to run. But Lichtman is skeptical, telling the Herald that Trump “has too many other challenges facing him” and that he doesn’t think he’ll be the GOP candidate or a third-party candidate.
Trump faces a slew of lawsuits. Manhattan’s district attorney, Cyrus Vance Jr., is set to investigate allegations of tax and financial crimes at the Trump Organization, and a prosecutor in Georgia launched a criminal investigation into allegations Trump illegally sought to subvert the 2020 election result.
“He’s got $400-million-plus in loans coming due,” Lichtman said. “His brand is failing. His businesses are failing. He has a huge IRS audit. He doesn’t hold office anymore. He’s lost his Twitter feed.”
Lichtman was apparently referring to a New York Times report from last year citing tax records, whose accuracy Trump disputed, that he is heavily indebted.
The historian gave Biden 9 out of 10 for his performance so far and said that even though the president would be 82 in 2024, he wouldn’t rule him out to run for reelection.
“There’s no precedent in American history for starting the presidency at age 78, either,” Lichtman said. “But, as we know, precedents are made to be broken.”
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