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By NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY, ZI-ANN LUM and MAURA FORREST
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Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. I’m your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey, with Zi-Ann Lum and Maura Forrest. Today, we’re still on Fiscal Update Date Watch. The finance minister embedded hints of themes to come in her latest speech. Plus, Cabinet ministers get real awkward when confronted about monarchical oath-swearing.
FISCAL STUMP SPEECH — By now it’s clear Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is on a mission to sell a narrative. Playbook has read the DPM’s three most recent speeches front to back and back to front.
Here’s how it boils down: The economy is headed to the Bad Place, but Canada with its natural bounty can be the Good Place.
Wednesday brought meh news on the economic front. Statistics Canada’s consumer price index rose 6.9 percent from a year earlier, a slightly slower pace than last month but still persistently high. Economists like TREVOR TOMBE insist prices are actually “returning closer to normal” — but opposition politicians rightly point out that grocery bills are eye-popping.
For the second time in three days, the finance minister cautioned that a serious slowdown is on the way. Shorter Freeland: “Don’t say I didn’t warn ya!”
— The good news, once more: Freeland has been using her speeches to hammer home cautious optimism. Canada has what Canada needs to get through the deep muck of a recession (though she wouldn’t dare use the r-word): minerals, energy and food that’ll benefit friendly nations everywhere.
— So far this week: Monday took Freeland to a green hydrogen project in Quebec. Wednesday brought remarks at the Auto Parts Manufacturers’ Association’s annual convention in Windsor. That’s a friendly place for Liberals where honcho FLAVIO VOLPE, a key NAFTA/USMCA/CUSMA government ally, holds court.
(An aside: Freeland gave a nod to APMA’s all-Canadian Project Arrow zero-emissions vehicle initiative that likely left Volpe beaming.)
— Hints of a date: The minister consistently fails to end the suspense and produce a date for her all-important Fall Economic Statement, the annual exercise her staff and the bureaucracy call FES and the rest of us know as a fiscal update.
Wednesday brought only the promise of a reveal “in the days to come.” Playbook’s money is still on the week after Halloween, which falls right before a break week (i.e. roadshow week) and allows plenty of time to pass a FES-inspired bill in the pre-Christmas sprint.
— Hints of a plan: Freeland’s speech dropped some future themes that’ll sound familiar to anyone who skimmed the 2022 federal budget.
→ “We need to take real action to tackle the productivity challenge that is our economic Achilles’ heel, and encourage businesses to grow and invest here in Canada.”
→ “We need to make sure that Canadians have the skills they need for the good jobs of today and tomorrow.”
→ “We need more of the new Canadians who will help our businesses grow, and we need strong unions that will fight for the hardworking people who will build our growing economy.”
→ “And we need affordable homes, affordable child care, and a resilient social safety net for the middle class and those working hard to join it.”
— Keywords to watch: productivity, skills training, immigration, strong unions, affordable homes, child care, social programs
— Jargon alert: The Toronto Star’s STEPHANIE LEVITZ got hold of a Freeland pre-budget directive to Cabinet colleagues. Her message: Find a way to pay for your spending wish list using existing resources. That means matching proposals with “internal reallocations” — aka budget cuts somewhere else.
— Destination Alberta: Freeland heads to Edmonton today for a union leaders’ roundtable followed by another speech.
Keefer meets Trudeau | Photo courtesy of Chris Keefer
GOING NUCLEAR — Canadians for Nuclear Energy president CHRIS KEEFER, an ER doctor by trade, blitzed a pair of partial party caucuses on the Hill.
Keefer’s Wednesday lobbying spree found about a dozen Liberals willing to hear him out, and a similar number of Tories. His message: go all in on nuclear energy.
Keefer chatted with Labor Minister SEAMUS O’REGAN for about 10 minutes. He found time with Procurement Minister HELENA JACZEK. He briefly met Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU outside the House of Commons. On the Tory side, Keefer bent the ear of deputy leader TIM UPPAL.
Were they receptive? Keefer, who assured Playbook he doesn’t get paid a cent by industry, claimed his message resonated — particularly with MPs from New Brunswick and Ontario, where an aging nuclear plant just scored a life extension.
— Not on Keefer’s agenda: Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT and Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON, the Cabinet pointmen on the energy file.
— Speaking of Wilkinson: He’s on the agenda at a Canadian Nuclear Association financing summit today at the Westin, where he’ll sit down for a “fireside chat” about the “growing potential of the nuclear sector.”
— What industry wants to hear: Pro-nuclear types are looking for signs that Liberals are willing to look at their favorite kind of energy as a path to emissions reductions and economic recovery.
MARK CARNEY is a keynote speaker. Recall that Carney, the vice-chair of Brookfield Asset Management whose job is to think about the transition away from fossil fuels, said these words to investors in September: “There’s no transition that works without nuclear, full stop.”
LONG LIVE THE KING? — A debate in Quebec over swearing allegiance to the King had the PM and several of his ministers twisting themselves into pretzels on Wednesday.
— The quick backstory: Two Quebec provincial parties — the sovereigntist Parti Québécois and Québec Solidaire — have said they don’t want to take an oath of allegiance to KING CHARLES III as part of the swearing-in process to the provincial legislature.
Four years ago, QS MNAs swore the oath in a private ceremony.
A spokesperson for Quebec Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT has said the governing Coalition Avenir Québec also wants to end the oath of allegiance.
But provincial MNAs will have to swear the oath so they can sit in the National Assembly to make the change.
— The view from Ottawa: Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU gave a rather mixed message on the question when asked about it Wednesday. “The National Assembly has the right to decide how they want to organize their swearing-in process,” he said in the morning, suggesting the Quebec legislature could pass a law to make the change.
But later in the day, asked whether the Quebec government has the power to nix a constitutional requirement, Trudeau took a different line. “I don’t want to speculate on what the National Assembly can or cannot do,” he said. “What I can tell you here is that there is not a Quebecer who wants us to reopen the Constitution.”
— Meanwhile: Several of Trudeau’s Quebec ministers found creative ways to avoid saying whether they, personally, were comfortable swearing allegiance to the Crown.
— Here are a few examples:
“That’s — that’s what was planned, so I did it.” — Heritage Minister PABLO RODRIGUEZ
“I can tell you that in my riding, there is no one who talks to me about oaths. They talk to me about the cost of living and then about inflation.” — National Revenue Minister DIANE LEBOUTHILLIER
“Listen, I have a lot to take care of right now.” — Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY
“My mother did it as an immigrant, my father did it as an immigrant when he arrived in Canada. It was a very important step for them in the ’50s and ’60s when they did it.” — Justice Minister DAVID LAMETTI
“It’s the rule of law, so I’m comfortable.” — Innovation Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE
— The upshot: The Liberals will need to get their talking points sorted soon, because this debate is far from over. Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET has said his party plans to table a motion next week related to cutting ties with the monarchy.
DOWN IN D.C. — Innovation Minister CHAMPAGNE touches down in Washington today to bring his invest-in-Canada message to the capital.
Champagne has two days of meetings lined up with Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO and NASA administrator BILL NELSON. Face time with American microchip and semiconductor associations have also worked their way onto the minister’s schedule.
Champagne tells Playbook he and Raimondo have agreed to meet regularly. Their task is to figure out how to work together. “I often say the ‘what’ has been defined. Our job is to make the ‘how’ work,” he said during a call from his hotel room in Windsor, Ontario on the eve of his stateside trip.
— Champagne’s recipe: He said five ingredients are key to attracting investments: talent, economic ecosystems, critical minerals, renewable energy and market access. But his meeting with Raimondo will focus on another piece of the puzzle: speed.
While supply chain resiliency and semiconductors top his agenda, Champagne said he intends to use his D.C. blitz to get into the weeds of how Canada can develop critical minerals faster.
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in British Columbia.
— Associate Finance Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT is still in Thailand for the Finance Ministers’ Meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation.
8 a.m. Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY hosts a meeting of women foreign ministers to “discuss the grave state of women and human rights in Iran.”
9 a.m. The parliamentary budget officer will publish a new report estimating the cost of the Canada dental benefit.
9 a.m. Defense Minister ANITA ANAND is in Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, Quebec, for an announcement on equipping the military.
9 a.m. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT will be in Montreal for a Trans Canada Trail funding announcement.
9:30 a.m. Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister MARC MILLER will be in Gatineau to announce funding for the Native Women’s Association of Canada.
2:15 p.m. (11:15 a.m. PT) Trudeau will visit a local school to mark Diwali and Bandi Chhor Divas with students.
2:45 p.m. (12:45 p.m. MT) Deputy PM Freeland is in Edmonton for a roundtable discussion with union leaders.
4:30 p.m. (2:30 p.m. MT) Freeland will speak about the Canadian economy while visiting a labor union.
4:45 p.m. (1:45 p.m. PT) Trudeau will participate in a roundtable discussion on affordability.
6 p.m. (3 p.m. PT) Trudeau will participate in a roundtable discussion with Iranian-Canadian settlement service workers.
6 p.m. North Belfast MP JOHN FUNICANE will attend the Cross Canada Irish Unity Roadshow — “an evening of discussion and music” — at the Heart and Crown pub.
6:30 p.m. Ontario’s riding redistribution commission holds a hearing at the Canadian Museum of Nature.
EKOS Research senior analyst EARL WASHBURN is among dozens of presenters. He spilled a bunch of elected officials on the list from all three levels of government: JOEL HARDEN, CHANDRA PASMA, MARK GERRETSEN, MARIE-FRANCE LALONDE, SCOTT REID, CHANDRA ARYA, JENNA SUDDS, YASIR NAQVI and LAURA DUDAS.
7:30 p.m. (4:30 p.m. PT) Trudeau will meet with B.C. Premier JOHN HORGAN.
9:30 p.m. (6:30 p.m. PT) Trudeau will attend a party fundraiser in Surrey.
— There are 548 acclaimed candidates in Ontario’s municipal elections. TVO’s JUSTIN CHANDLER considers what it means for democracy.
— The CBC’s DON PITT warns, ‘Freeland Doctrine’ could set the world on a path to a new trade cold war.
— In a widely shared post, JUSTIN LING delves deep into Alberta premier DANIELLE SMITH‘s apparent reading list: “This isn’t just about a politician who believes bad and wrong things — this is about a politician who has decided to live in her own world, with her own facts, with her own sources of reality.”
— Still in Alberta, uCalgary prof LISA YOUNGserves up a primer on Cabinetmaking. Smith names her front bench tomorrow.
— Here’s the latest from ERICA IFILL in the Hill Times: Diversity and inclusion promises ring hollow if racialized voices are shut out.
— Former government insiders NAVDEEP BAINS and ELDER MARQUES offer their ex-colleagues in Ottawa a blueprint on fixing immigration policy.
What are you reading? Playbook wants to know.
If you’re a subscriber, don’t miss our latest newsletter by SUE ALLAN:Gloomy days, my friends.
In other Pro headlines:
— European Commission calls for potential ban on crypto mining to save power.
— France’s music-streaming tax is dead — for now.
— Democrats passed a huge climate bill. Now they’re talking oil.
— D.C. AG urges people seeking an abortion not to use Facebook Messenger.
— National Cyber Strategy heads to senior Biden officials for review.
Birthdays: HBD to JULIE PAYETTE, MP BOB ZIMMER and former MP NINA GREWAL.
Birthdays, gatherings, social notices: Send them our way.
Spotted: A moment of silence in the House for SHAELYN YANG. The RCMP officer was killed Tuesday in Burnaby, British Columbia.
Tributes for the late BILL BLAIKIE.
A gaggle of PMO’ers and ministerial chiefs of staff at an evening social at the ByWard Market’s Clarendon Tavern: KATIE TELFORD, BRIAN CLOW, MARJORIE MICHEL, CAMERON AHMAD, ZITA ASTRAVAS, JASON EASTON, CLAIRE SEABORN and CORY PIKE.
The Royal Canadian Navy, tapping Earnscliffe to ask Canadians what they think about that particular branch of the military. All for the low, low price of C$128,413.65.
Movers and shakers: PM Trudeau’s foreign and defense policy adviser, DAN COSTELLO, is retiring from the public service at the end of the month. Costello was appointed to that role in January.
MICHAEL DIAMOND will be acclaimed this weekend as the president of DOUG FORD‘s Progressive Conservatives, reports ROBERT BENZIE.
Compass Rose founder JACQUIE LAROCQUE was named one of Canada’s most powerful women by the Women’s Executive Network.
Quebec-based Pharmascience, a manufacturer of generic drugs, tasked Earnscliffe senior consultant BETH PALMER with making its case on the Hill. Among its priorities: Strategic Innovation Fund support for a biomanufacturing expansion project.
Former MP JIM KARYGIANNIS signed up another lobbying client: YE-HANG CANADA, which hopes for legislation to “legalize the use of drones which have a load capacity of over 150 Kilograms.”
Media mentions: Indiegraf launched the News Startup Fund, which offers grants to fledgling journalism outlets. The Google News Initiative, the Knight Foundation and the McConnell Foundation ponied up support to make it happen.
Send Playbookers tips to [email protected].
— Find the latest House committee meetings here.
— Keep track of Senate committees here.
9 a.m. The Senate committee on agriculture and forestry is studying soil health in Canada.
9 a.m. Senators on the fisheries and oceans committee will hear from the Atlantic Groundfish Council and consultant ROBERT HARDY on seal populations and their effect on fisheries.
9 a.m. The Senate energy committee will hear from environment commissioner JERRY DEMARCO as part of its study on emerging issues, including hydrogen energy.
9:30 a.m. The Public Order Emergency Commission continues hearings in Ottawa.
11 a.m.The House committee on official languages keeps on with a study of Bill C-13. JEAN-PAUL PERREAULT of Impératif français will be today’s first witness.
11 a.m.The House committee on procedure will consult Equal Voice and the Samara Centre for Democracy as it surveys the efficacy of hybrid proceedings. CATHERINE CLARK and JENNIFER STEWART of the Honest Talk pod are scheduled to appear.
11 a.m. Global Affairs officials will be at the House committee on national defense to inform its study of Arctic security.
11:30 a.m. Former central banks governor MARK CARNEY will be the lead-off witness at the Senate banking, commerce and economy committee as it studies inflation. Professor STEVE H. HANKE will be up in the second hour.
11:30 a.m. ROLAND PARIS and ADAM CHAPNICK will be at a Senate committee to advise on the foreign service. In its second hour, the committee will hear from professor Timothy Snyder.
11:30 a.m. Former senator MURRAY SINCLAIR will be at the Senate committee on legal and constitutional affairs to discuss Bill C-5, An Act to amend the Criminal Code and the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act.
11:30 a.m. Senator PATRICK BRAZEAU will be the first witness at the Senate social affairs committee as it studies suicide prevention.
3:30 p.m. The House committee on the status of women is focused on the mental health of women and girls. Witnesses this day will include the Canadian Centre for Gender and Sexual Diversity, Kawartha Sexual Assault Centre, La Maison Hébergement RSSM, the MEHRIT Centre and Women of the Métis Nation.
3:30 p.m. Veterans Affairs Minister LAWRENCE MACAULAY will be in the hot seat at the House veterans affairs committee where MPs are launching a study of allegations that a veteran was offered medical assistance in dying, unprompted, by an employee of Veterans Affairs Canada.
3:30 p.m. The House committee on Indigenous and northern affairs has on its witness roster B.C. MLA ELLIS ROSS, CLÉMENT CHARTIER of the Manitoba Métis Federation and Grand Chief HERB NORWEGIAN of Dehcho First Nations. The committee’s current focus is Bill C-29, which seeks to establish a national council for reconciliation.
3:30 p.m.The House committee on operations and estimates will discuss Canada’s national shipbuilding strategy in its first hour, and the ArriveCAN app in its second. Customs and Immigration Union national president MARK WEBER is on the witness list.
3:30 p.m.The House industry committee is studying Bill C-235, “respecting the building of a green economy in the Prairies.” The Alberta Beef Producers, the Canadian Cattle Association, Cameco Corporation and Manitoba Economic Development Minister CLIFFCULLEN will be up.
3:30 p.m. The London Abused Women’s Centre, Mothers Against Drunk Driving and Native Women’s Association of Canada will be at the House committee on justice and human rights. MPs there are looking at Bill C-28.
6:30 p.m.The Special Joint Committee on the Declaration of Emergency is scheduled to discuss committee business.
Behind closed doors:The House health committee will be discussing its report on Canada’s workforce.
Wednesday’s answer: Premier DANIELLE SMITH will run in the Brooks–Medicine Hat byelection.She lives in High River, Alberta, in the riding of Livingstone–Macleod.
Props to ANNE-MARIE STACEY and ROBERT MCDOUGALL.
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