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Whatever that was that fell in Poland and killed two civilians Nov. 15, it came closer to starting a direct war between Russia and NATO than anyone wants to admit in public. There is some reason to believe this was a Russian-made air defense missile fired by Ukraine that went astray, and there is also some reason not to believe it. Either way, something like this is liable to start a war with NATO that leads to nuclear war.
Pressuring Ukraine to negotiate with a Russia that is still occupying and destroying Ukraine is misguided at best, and probably morally wrong. Russia rarely negotiated in good faith as the Soviet Union, and is still behaving that same way under Putin today. Nothing Putin (or any of his minions) says can be trusted — that much we know for sure, given the last eight years of history regarding Ukraine. But we do know they understand the risks of war with NATO. There’s a seven-decade history for that.
I would therefore recommend a three-fold ultimatum from NATO to Putin instead:
1. If a Russian-made weapon falls in a NATO country again, regardless of who fired it, then NATO is at war with you.
2. If any weapons hit a nuclear power plant in Ukraine, regardless of who fired them, then NATO is at war with you.
3. If you continue (past a stated short-term date) committing war crimes in Ukraine by targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure, then NATO is at war with you.
Then move very large armies into place, on NATO’s side of all the relevant borders, to enforce it. The message is “Putin, stop the war, or be destroyed.” It’s that ugly and risky, and also that simple. I see no other way to stop this — and stop it we must. Putin’s war damages us all economically and politically, and it is utterly catastrophic for Ukraine, besides threatening nuclear destruction for us all.
With that ultimatum, you will see Putin stand down and withdraw from Ukraine rather than risk his personal destruction in a war that he knows he cannot win (nobody wins a nuclear war). Withdrawal is then his only path to staying in power in Russia — although his own people might then have something to say about that, and good riddance, too. A Russia without Putin could be a good friend.
Otherwise, Putin will continue destroying Ukraine and its people as if they were vermin, his revenge for their leaving after the fall of the Soviet Union. That ugly description of deliberate genocide is precisely the real pattern of his Ukraine war so far. Our diplomats and politicians won’t tell you that ugly little truth, but I just did.
And the longer this evil goes on, the more likely this war will get out of control, as Putin gets ever more desperate to avoid the humiliating defeats he has been suffering on the Ukrainian battlefield. The more desperate he gets, the more likely he will use tactical nuclear weapons.
He will use them for his personal revenge. They cannot conquer what his armies failed to conquer. And we all know that event could well start the “big one.”
Time is not on our side.
AP reports that NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg issued a statement on Nov. 28.
Gary W. Johnson is a former cutting-edge aerospace defense engineer. He lives in McGregor and is a member of the Tribune-Herald Board of Contributors.
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