Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Score is your guide to the year-round campaign cycle.
Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Score is your guide to the year-round campaign cycle.
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By MADISON FERNANDEZ
Here we are again— the final days beforethe Georgia Senate runoff election. Early voting kicked off over the weekend as Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker make their final pitches to voters.
Here are some numbers to know as we head into the final week before the election:
— $73 million: That’s how much Warnock and Walker have raised from Oct. 20 through Nov. 16. Warnock, who led the pack of Senate candidates for most money raised this cycle, brought in more than twice as much as Walker. The incumbent raised $52.2 million compared to Walker’s $20.9 million.
Warnock’s war chest is three times larger than Walker’s, ending the period with $29.7 million. Walker had $9.8 million in the bank. In that period, Warnock had $31.9 million in operating expenditures, while Walker had $16.4 million.
In the runoff following the 2020 election, Warnock also had a substantial fundraising lead over his opponent, then-Sen. Kelly Loeffler. Hundreds of millions more poured in during that election — but keep in mind, candidates are operating on a shorter timeline now. There’s just four weeks between the general and the runoff compared to the nine weeks candidates had in 2020.
— $44 million: Big raising means big spending. From Nov. 9 — when the runoff was officially announced — through Nov. 27, over $44 million has been poured into TV, radio and digital ads, per AdImpact. That includes more than $31 million from Democrats and over $12 million from Republicans. Warnock tops the list with over $15 million spent, followed by Georgia Honor, which spent over $13 million so far. Walker and Senate Leadership Fund both put in over $5 million.
Over $13 million is booked in the days leading up to the runoff. From Nov. 28 through Dec. 6, Republicans have the spending advantage, booking more than $7 million in ads compared to $5 million from Democrats. Most of that Republican spend is coming from SLF, which has booked more than $6 million in this period. (SLF is entering the latter days of the runoff with more than $11 million in the bank.)
Georgia has become the most expensive race for ad spending this cycle, surpassing the more than $264 million spent in the Pennsylvania Senate race since the beginning of this year. The Georgia Senate race is set to surpass $300 million in ad spending for the whole year.
Still, that pales in comparison to the ad spending in 2020. The Georgia Senate race saw over $700 million spent in the cycle, with nearly $500 million of that spent in the runoff. But keep in mind, in addition to it being a longer campaigning period, that included the Senate race between Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, who was challenging then-Sen. David Perdue, along with the Warnock-Loeffler race.
People gather during a get out the vote rally on Nov. 27, 2022, in Atlanta, Ga., during early voting for the Senate runoff election. | Ben Gray/AP Photo
— 156,000: Over 156,000 people turned out to vote early in Georgia on Saturday and Sunday, per Gabriel Sterling, chief operating officer of the Georgia Secretary of State’s office. (In all, over 181,000 voters have cast their ballot, including absentee voting and the few counties that offered early voting last week.)
Over the last couple of weeks, there was plenty of back and forth over if Saturday voting was allowed this past weekend — the only Saturday the polls would be open in the runoff. Officials in the state said that state law doesn’t allow Saturday voting if it’s within two days of a holiday. The Democratic Party of Georgia, DSCC and Warnock’s campaign filed a suit to allow Saturday voting — arguing the law doesn’t apply to runoffs — and won. Lawyers for the state later filed an appeal, as did the Georgia Republican Party, NRSC and the Republican National Committee, to stay the order. The courts allowed Saturday voting to proceed, although not all counties offered it. Just over 20 did, and more opened the polls on Sunday.
All counties are mandated to have early voting Monday through Friday. On Saturday, Warnock pointed to those who “may not have the luxury of voting during a weekday” when discussing securing Saturday voting.
Around 70,000 people voted on Saturday. The first Saturday of voting in this year’s general election broke a record for the highest turnout on a first Saturday with about 80,000 voters, blowing past the 66,000 on the first Saturday in 2020 and the 31,000 on the first Saturday in 2018.
As Sterling points out, it’s hard to compare these turnout numbers to the previous runoff because the first days of early voting then were weekdays in all counties, compared to the weekend in fewer counties.
It’s Monday. Welcome back from the long weekend. Send tips and Thanksgiving leftovers to [email protected] and @madfernandez616.
Days until Georgia runoff: 8
Days until the 2023 election: 344
Days until the 2024 election: 708
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LOOKING FOR ALASKA — Alaska Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola and Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski were reelected after ranked choice tabulations were completed last week. That means a record-breaking 149 women will serve in the 118th Congress, according to data from the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. That’s two more than the previous record of 147, which was set earlier this year.
HOUSE CALL — We’re still waiting on the result of one House race, CA-13. Republican John Duarte is ahead of Democrat Adam Gray. (There’s also CO-03, which hasn’t been called, but Democrat Adam Frisch conceded to Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert.) Republicans currently lead Democrats 220-213 in the House.
GEORGIA CORNER — Asian American voters helped Democrats in Georgia in the 2020 election, and they could make an impact this time around, too. Both parties are attempting to court these voters — but Asian American organizers say that they’re still not seeing enough investment in their community, even though they make up the fastest-growing racial or ethnic group in the country. Read more from your host and Holly Otterbein.
… AD WATCH: Republican Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp is out with an ad for Walker. The spot, from SLF, features Kemp saying, “Herschel Walker will vote for Georgia, not be another rubber stamp for Joe Biden. That’s why I’m backing Herschel.”
Warnock also put out an ad for Thanksgiving encouraging unity. “Politics these days is often used to divide us,” he says. “But Thanksgiving offers an opportunity to consider all the things we share in common.”
REDISTRICTING REFLECTION — My colleagues Jessica Piper and Ally Mutnick are up with some takeaways from the first election held under new congressional maps. Among them: Redistricting probably did give Republicans control of the House, and the courts hurt Democrats but boosted the GOP.
Looking forward to 2024, Democrats have a relatively easy task in drawing up targets. Although court fights could shift the maps in a few states, more than a dozen Republican incumbents will be running in districts Biden won. And several states could see another round of redistricting before 2024 as their current maps face legal challenges that were not resolved this year.
… RELATED: House Democrats had a tough time in New York this year, due in part to redistricting. But New York’s Westchester County has become a Democratic firewall in recent years, boosting candidates running for state office and Congress and making it one of the most influential blue suburbs in the country. Read more from POLITICO’s Joe Spector.
ELECTION PROTECTION — “State-level law enforcement units created after the 2020 presidential election to investigate voter fraud are looking into scattered complaints more than two weeks after the midterms but have provided no indication of systemic problems,”the AP’s Gary Fields, Anthony Izaguirre and Sudhin Thanawala report. “That’s just what election experts had expected and led critics to suggest that the new units were more about politics than rooting out widespread abuses. Most election-related fraud cases already are investigated and prosecuted at the local level. Florida, Georgia and Virginia created special state-level units after the 2020 election, all pushed by Republican governors, attorneys general or legislatures.”
IN THE STATES — “Former U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra plans to challenge attorney Matt DePerno for the Michigan Republican Party chairmanship, potentially setting off a showdown between two allies of former President Donald Trump,” The Detroit News’ Chad Livengood, Beth LeBlanc and Melissa Nann Burke write. “Hoekstra served as Trump’s ambassador to The Netherlands from 2018 to 2021. He said it’d be best for Trump to ‘sit on the sidelines’ and not get involved in a race for control of the Michigan Republican Party. DePerno, who lost a race for attorney general earlier this month, has been a close ally to Trump.”
… “Is the mega MAGA Arizona Republican Party here to stay?” by The Arizona Republic’s Alison Steinbach, Emily Sacia and Richard Ruelas: Arizona Republican Party chair Kelli Ward “does not plan to run for chair again in the January party leadership election, an Arizona Republican Party spokesperson said. … But as a national lightning rod for controversy and with her divisive style, Ward has come to symbolize what many moderate Republicans see as an intolerable situation: the takeover of the Republican Party by an increasingly more right-wing camp that is out of touch with Arizona voters. Ward ceding control probably wouldn’t change that much, at least right away, given the base of people involved in party politics who hold similar views to her.”
— Election advocates are pushing Congress to include hundreds of millions of dollars in the government spending package under consideration before this Congress concludes just after the new year, our Zach Montellaro reports. That’s not just because of the unpredictability of a split Congress next year, but also because funding that arrives in late 2023 or early 2024 could come too late for officials to be able to reliably plan on. Appropriators in both chambers listed $400 million for funding for “election security grants” in initial announcements earlier this year — and while that would be welcomed, some are worried it doesn’t address a longer-term need for federal funding for elections.
— Donald Trump is “no longer in a separate league from other potential presidential contenders,”my colleague David Siders writes. “He is a dominant — but not the singular — force in the GOP, and his candidacy is starting at a time when Republicans are still digesting his contribution to the party’s shortcomings this year. It isn’t only the underperformance of Trump’s favored candidates in the midterm elections weighing on Republicans, but exit polling in which more than a quarter of voters said their vote in U.S. House contests was meant to oppose Trump — in an election where he was not on the ballot.”
… A Morning Consult/POLITICO poll found that support for Trump in a 2024 presidential primary dropped two points, from 47 percent to 45 percent, following the announcement of his campaign. “The latest survey marks one of Trump’s worst showings in the hypothetical matchup against several lower-polling names, with a smaller share of support (40%) coming only immediately after the Jan. 6 Capitol attack,” Morning Consult’s Eli Yokley notes.
… MORE: “The GOP’s great Trump reckoning begins at the state party level,” by POLITICO’s Adam Wren, Holly Otterbein, Natalie Allison and Lisa Kashinsky
… ICYMI: “Donald Trump dined with white nationalist, Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes,” by POLITICO’s Meridith McGraw
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— “Had all her plans worked out, Rebecca Kleefisch would now be assembling a cabinet and preparing to take over as Wisconsin’s governor,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Bill Glauber writes. “Instead, Kleefisch, the state’s former lieutenant governor who lost a tough Republican gubernatorial primary in August, is setting her sights on recruiting and mentoring the next generation of conservative candidates in Wisconsin. She’s devoting herself full time as president of the 1848 Project, the group she rolled out two years ago to develop a conservative agenda.”
CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY: “I don’t lie awake at night worrying about the bad legislation they are going to pass. Because I don’t think they’re going to pass it,” Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) said of the House Republicans’ majority.
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