Has Antarctica hit a point of no return?

By Sharon Kimathi, Energy and ESG Editor, Reuters Digital

Hello,

Environmental campaigners are taking the European Commission to court to demand stricter 2030 emissions rules, while scientists in Antarctica warn that rapidly melting ice sheets can only be slowed by cutting fossil fuel use.

Meanwhile, Namibia has discovered vast reserves of crude oil, underscoring the disconnect between scientific warnings to halt drilling while some countries seek to ramp up oil exports.

In a case before the Court of Justice of the European Union’s General Court, non-profit groups Climate Action Network and the Global Legal Action Network argue that current national limits on greenhouse gas emissions for sectors such as transport and agriculture are unlawful.

The campaigners said the thresholds would fail to cut Europe’s planet-heating emissions fast enough to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (about 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.

A European Commission spokesperson declined to comment on ongoing legal proceedings.

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Glaciologist at ETHZ and head of the Glacier Monitoring in Switzerland (GLAMOS) Matthias Huss enters an ice cave in Obergoms, Switzerland. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse 

The limits, which require EU member states to cut their emissions in those sectors between 10% and 50% from 2005 levels, contribute to the EU’s overall goal of reducing net emissions 55% by 2030, in relation to 1990 levels.

The court has given the case priority status, meaning it could be heard in 2025.

The EU lawsuit comes as Germany’s far-right AfD party is trying to pick up rural voters who oppose the growth of wind energy in regions such as Thuringia and Saxony.

This anti-green sentiment echoes a broader popular backlash in Germany and elsewhere in Europe against the costs of the transition to green energy amid an economic slowdown.

Scientists say the world’s emissions need to roughly halve by 2030 to have a shot at limiting warming to 1.5C. Campaigners argue the wealthy, large historical polluters such as the EU should be moving faster.

The campaigners’ warnings come as nearly 1,500 academics and researchers specializing in Antarctica gathered in southern Chile for the 11th Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research conference this week to share their findings on the ice-covered continent which is rapidly changing.

There were first-hand accounts from researchers about heavy rainfall, intense heat waves and sudden Foehn (strong dry winds) events that led to mass melting, giant glacier break-offs and dangerous weather conditions with global implications.

Scientists wondered whether these events meant Antarctica had reached a tipping point, or a point of accelerated and irreversible sea ice loss from the West Antarctic ice sheet.

While some say the climate changes are already locked in, scientists agreed that the worst-case scenarios can still be avoided by dramatically reducing fossil fuel emissions.

“If we keep emissions low, we can stop this eventually,” Weber said. “If we keep them high, we have a runaway situation and we cannot do anything.”

That brings us to the final point of whether anyone can actually stop “a runaway situation”.

Over in Namibia, Portugal-based Galp discovered that the Mopane field could hold at least 10 billion barrels of oil and there has been interest from at least 12 other oil majors.

The Namibian economy is heavily dependent on mineral exports including diamonds and rare earths. But following recent discoveries, energy could eventually overtake mining in terms of significance to the middle-income country’s economy.

“Oil exports per capita out of Namibia will look like a Gulf state in the 2040s, provided they are competitive globally… which should be a positive for debt to GDP ratios in the country,” Charlie Robertson, head of macro strategy at FIM Partners, said.

People sit on bags of aid on a makeshift raft while others wade through flood water, following devastating floods, in South Tokar, Red Sea State, Sudan. REUTERS/El Tayeb Siddig

As Namibia prepares to ramp up its fossil fuel production, Norway has been increasing its pipeline gas exports to Europe.

Following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and reduced shipments of Russian gas, Norway has become Europe’s largest gas supplier.

As of the end of July, Norwegian piped gas volumes totalled 70.2 billion cubic meters (bcm), compared with 64 bcm for the same period last year, said Frode Leversund, CEO of system operator Gassco – the first time Gassco provided accumulated delivery volumes for 2024.

A view of a Lego figure on display inside their headquarters in Billund, Denmark. REUTERS/Jacob Gronholt Pedersen

Toymaker Lego said it was on track to replace the oil used in making its signature bricks with more expensive renewable and recycled plastic by 2032 after signing deals with producers to secure long-term supply.

Lego, which sells billions of plastic bricks annually, has tested more than 600 different substances to develop a new material that would completely replace its oil-based brick by 2030, but with limited success.

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