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By Lauren Young, Digital Special Projects Editor

Chances are your investment portfolio is looking pretty good right now, but can the bull market continue? 

The benchmark S&P 500 index is up more than 25% in the last five months, a phenomenon that has occurred just 10 times since the 1930s, according to BofA Global Research. In an advance led by stunning gains in chipmaker Nvidia, the S&P has already hit 16 record highs this year, the most in any first quarter since 1945, CFRA Research data showed.

Bullish investors say those gains stem from solid fundamentals, rather than the type of rampant speculation that has accompanied past bubbles. Reasons include a strong U.S. economy, expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year and excitement over the business potential of artificial intelligence.

Yet some investors believe the market’s nearly uninterrupted ascent means that a pullback is coming. The last time the S&P 500 slid more than 5% was in October, though BofA data shows such sell-offs historically occur three times per year on average. The index is up more than 8% this year through Wednesday’s close.

Which way do you think the market is heading? Are you buying, selling or holding? 

Let me know your thoughts at onthemoney@thomsonreuters.com.

How high can Bitcoin fly? REUTERS/Benoit Tessier

As bitcoin’s price reaches new heights, market watchers are focusing on its upcoming “halving” and whether it is playing a role in its jump.

There are two schools of thought: the halving is a vital event that will burnish bitcoin’s value as an increasingly scarce commodity, or it is nothing more than a technical change talked up by speculators to inflate Bitcoin’s price.

But what exactly is halving, and does it really matter?

All that glitters Spot gold hit an all-time high recently at $2,194.99 an ounce. In a recent interview, Russ Mould of AJ Bell told Reuters that high U.S debt is making the precious metal shine bright for investors. Watch his interview here.

Major African cocoa plants in Ivory Coast and Ghana have stopped or cut processing because they cannot afford to buy beans. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

I am addicted to chocolate. In fact, while writing this newsletter, I binged on Cadbury Mini Eggs, which thankfully are a seasonal confection. (Otherwise, I’d binge on them year-round.)

Alas, my chocolate cravings may be curtailed by a worrisome trend: Major African cocoa plants in Ivory Coast and Ghana have stopped or cut processing because they cannot afford to buy beans, meaning chocolate prices around the world are likely to soar.

Supply was already tight due to bad weather, forcing chocolate makers to raise prices. U.S. retail stores charged 11.6% more for chocolate products last year compared with 2022, data from market research firm Circana shows.

Overall, the International Cocoa Organisation expects global cocoa production to fall by 10.9% to 4.45 million metric tons this season.

I wish I had some good personal finance advice to share. Stockpiling chocolate is not recommended, since, in my humble opinion, it is best fresh. 

But I want to hear your thoughts: Have you noticed higher chocolate prices? Has it impacted your consumption?

Write me at onthemoney@thomsonreuters.com

CJ researching pet insurance options. Photo by Lauren Young 

Careful readers of this newsletter will recall that I am a huge fan of pet insurance. But, starting in May, the cost of my poodle CJ’s policy will rise by more than $800 annually (a 33% increase!)

So, after reading The big ask: The right questions can make you money – an article we featured in our last newsletter – I called my insurer and asked for a rate reduction.

Alas, I did not have much luck on the first pass. My current policy provides 90% coverage with a $250 deductible. But it is no longer available to new customers. Instead, the service associate said I could switch to a policy with 70% coverage and a $250 deductible.  

So now I have to make some big choices. If you’re in the same boat or have a pet insurer to recommend, feel free to reach out so we can commiserate: onthemoney@thomsonreuters.com.

Do you need tax help? Are you looking for a mortgage? Send questions to onthemoney@thomsonreuters.com, and I’ll tap my extensive source network and braintrust for expert advice.

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This newsletter was edited by Mark Porter.

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