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Economic competition in the international community is then international organizations show their role importance in regulating the course of economic activity between countries to maintain economic stability.
Maintaining economic growth is considered a long-term problem for every country. There are various factors that hinder economic growth for the country, one of which is the inability of the country to meet domestic needs. Therefore, countries need cooperation in special forums to discuss how each country can meet its national needs through cooperation with other countries (Cahyanti, 2017).
In an effort to improve the regional economy, countries tend to join regional organizations. In Southeast Asia, ASEAN is a regional organization empowered to assist the region. ASEAN stands for (Association of Southeast Asian Nation) a regional organization as a forum for cooperation between countries in Southeast Asia (ASEAN, 2020).
ASEAN was founded on August 8, 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand. The founding countries are Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, Thailand. ASEAN creates cooperation in the fields of trade, investment, employment, alleviating people from poverty, and reducing development gaps in the region. ASEAN has an important role in growing the economy of the Southeast Asian region with several strategies such as the establishment of AFTA and MEA (ASEAN, 2020).
The ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) as well as the ASEAN Economic Community (MEA) function as a cooperation forum to encourage economic growth in countries in the region, with the aim of encouraging national economic growth for each country involved in regional cooperation by creating cooperation in the field of trade, investment, employment, alleviating people from poverty, and reducing development gaps in the region (Riyad, 2012)
The role of AFTA and AEC in Southeast Asian Economic Improvement
When viewed, ASEAN member countries are developing countries or known as Third World Country. In general, developing countries have the same problems, especially in the economic field. So it requires a way to meet national needs between countries. This encourages the state to negotiate the right way to advance the economy together (Riyad, 2012).
In realizing this goal, the ASEAN region has made several focuses that contain the pattern of activities carried out by the international community in ASEAN, including:
Free trade in its regional area creates a pattern of export-import activities that can encourage the economy of each member and its region to increase further. The Trade Area also increases cooperation from outside the region. It can be seen that the growth of several countries increased in 2011, such as Indonesia whose GDP increased by 11%, Singapore 9%, Thailand 8%, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam by 5%, Brunei 4% (Rezki, 2011).
Impact on Members in the Southeast Asia Region
The efforts to increase economic growth in ASEAN certainly have an impact, both positive and negative impacts. the enactment of the MEA (ASEAN Economic Community) has a positive impact on ASEAN member countries. Southeast Asia region has good economic prospects. This area is an area that has the second largest economic growth in the world. From an economic and demographic perspective, Southeast Asia is the region with the fastest economic growth, and the economic consumption growth rate reaches 4% per year compared to the world’s only 1.8% (Rezki, 2011).
Meanwhile, the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) has a role to play in realizing economic integration in the region by assisting and supervising all ASEAN member countries to conduct trade cooperation such as goods, services, investment, free skilled labor and freer flow of capital, as outlined in the ASEAN Economic Community. ASEAN has four pillars, which play a role in regulating activities among its regional members, namely; ASEAN as a single market and based on a single production supported by free analysis, ASEAN as a region with high economic competitiveness, ASEAN as a region with equitable economic development through the growth of small and medium enterprises.
The role of the Free Trade Area (AFTA) and the ASEAN Economic Community has a positive influence on the international society to develop its business without fear of obstacles. If economic activities continue to run well, the economic growth of each country will also increase. As previously explained, after the AFTA, especially in 2011, there was a 11% growth in Indonesia’s capital, 9% in Singapore, 8% in Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and in Vietnam 5% (Rezki, 2011).
Gaslighting the Globe
I am Cindy Juliana, currently I am studying for a Masters in International Relations, Gadjah Mada University. Previously I studied at the Islamic University of Indonesia to pursue a bachelor’s degree.
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Is the populace of the world now already under gaslighting? Gaslighting is about continuous psychological manipulation games. Is this something like when the ghosts of technology, pretending their loyal obedience to artificial intelligence, systematically create social media and fake media to create self-doubts and guilt amongst populations, submerge masses into low-confidence, anger and chaos? Is this why constant revival of history is needed, to twist and change cultures, erase monuments, customize history and accept masses in deep mental crisis as daily normalcy?
Currently, across the free world, the goal to divide and conquer and split internal citizenry into arch enemies is charging full steam ahead. No further proof required, as 99% of the narratives on election podiums are about mostly expanding such issues to split right and lefts, while visible absence of constructive or collaborative dialogue to lead grassroots prosperity is only a sign of lack of competency unable to tackle real hardcore challenges.
Leadership talents exposed in living colors; moving to a more mature discussions; Covid-19 started with daily parades of the top leaderships across the world, some displayed dramatically choreographed acts some chaotically random circuses, some fearful, some thoughtful, but all was available for the world to watch, measure, judge, learn and advance, every hour a different, tune, different dance, different tempo. No need to dig this any deeper, no need for any further self-injury. The point is made; digital exposure to personal performance is now a new frontier on national and global stages. Global economy of today is now about entrapments of global citizenry, on productivity, performance and profitability while ignorance on national mobilization of national talents and gaslighting about currency printing issues and crypto-nirvanas deployed.
Gaslighting on global digital platforms: Once truth is abolished, there only exists one pre-selected single lie. When applied on a large global scale, humankind has no place to ask questions, as only Animalkind has better controls. Screaming is not enough as lies have larger amplifiers. Divide and conquer assures perpetuity. Enemies in cheerful friendly customized disguises direct the traffic.
The serious question of today; what is an economy or what is a war? Forbidden, as out of reach topics for the populace, branded commonly insane, Are we fooled again and again, reminded how we have squatted in some foolish paradise, on important and intricate narratives, or on complex affairs, ignored and left alone to wander in chaos, as the survivors of the zombie lands, for being not important enough.
Therefore, can we now move to current hot topics like ‘inflation’ to ‘recessions’ or ‘depressions’ and raise our voices. Even better, are we mature enough to understand gaslighting to move to even other taboo topics like ‘wars’ gradually leading us to the ultimate ‘flashlight’ anticipated to take us back into dark ages where eventually each assigned a ‘wheel’ as a remaining symbol of industrialization. Should we scream or best we stay quiet as jolly-good spectators with a flag in one hand getting ready for a “Che sera” moment, hit the high note, dear Doris.
This very second, all over the globe it is all about the economic crisis, the fiscal calamities that drowning all the other political mumbo-jumbo narrative of sorts, the question is what is openly visible on the economic fronts, what is the hidden, what about the magical disappearances of any remains of wealthy-dreams from the working classes, leaving variety of which nations doing any good or on the cliff, and lastly those, without parachutes. Flying high “Over the rainbows” kindly, one more time dear Israel.
Why is the world now gaslighted on digital platforms to swallow fakery; notice when common sense narrative sounds like Celestine prophecies. Just listen to a common person talking about common sense logic. George Carlin will provide you a great test; just listen to his legendary comments and how perfectly they fit today’s shenanigans.
No other time in the history of civilization, so many globally connected will hold responsible the so few in power for destroying the remains of world financial order and bringing the world closer to a nuclear war. Therefore, “Self Mastery” urgently needed to differentiate between mesmerized minds with the enlightened one, the critical thinkers, bold enough to face the truth.
Unless we debate and deliver clarity on government actions struggling to keep balance and create constructive collaborative discussions on their economic developments, unless well defined and articulated the restless citizenry continue to rise. Elections across the world are visibly losing the art of leading a country and now transforming into the exclusive art of just winning votes at any costs. Elections are now like anticipated seasonal changes and across the world creating great concerns on any serious outcome from such changes.
Three difficult challenges: The new world order is no order, so how can a national leadership plan and execute any real value creation economic strategy, therefore resort to value-manipulations? Political science is now becoming economic science? Power of a nation NOT measured by their hard or soft power but by their levels of skilled citizenry capable of standing up to global age competitiveness. This is all about real mastery, but not an amateur paint by number art-class.
Any fast-track effort to save small medium business economy sectors via national mobilization of entrepreneurialism will only be meaningful if and when there is a blend with the entrepreneurial job creator mindset as simply job seeker mindsets cannot do this alone. Unless teams have expertise on digitization and mobilization, open to up-skilling to uplift-exporters and re-skill manufacturers, and confidence levels to save small medium business economies to save the national finances. Study more on Google how Expothon tabling blueprints on saving SME economies.
Digital exposure is also a double edged sword, one side, it openly identifies nation-by-nation, city-by-city the exposed economic activities, their drivers and their direct experiences and skills as shown on their LinkedIn profiles on the other highlights potentials of growth on their core competencies. It also opens great opportunities, on what is needed to get them up-skilled on digital platforms and what other channels can be created for fast up-skilling for such teams to become better contributors to the current economic changes. The economic administration across the free world is simply doomed if ‘wars’ remain the only options; as it is only the ‘meritocracy’ factors that will save nations.
Conclusion: Seek clarity at each step forward, at each game plan and only well articulated ideas as just rhetoric is dead. Strive for new thinking; otherwise any new thought or narrative only becomes offensive, dialogues threatening. Create opportunities for discussions for improvements on mindsets, regarding openly displayed performance levels, like the Olympic athletes trained based on split second filming on their physical capabilities. Hiding under the desk or washrooms are old fashioned routines of the dimly lit offices; today 50% remote and 50% digital. It is about facing harsh challenges and bringing all heads together to solve bigger problems and develop mighty solutions.
Is this time to “climb every mountain“, please Jamie and Barbara, one more time, and let us build a well adjusted future of diversity and tolerance but NOT gaslighted to end-up like an NFT on cancelled-Wokeism. Best focus on proving that you are not already gaslighted. Study more on Google.
The rest is easy.
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The World Bank cut India’s growth for FY2023 to 6.5%, this was a drop of 1% from its earlier forecast of 7.5%. The fresh forecast was attributed to the Russia-Ukraine war as well as global monetary policies. In its South Asia Economic Focus report released on October 6, 2022 the World Bank said:
‘The spillovers from the Russia-Ukraine war and global monetary policy tightening will continue to weigh on India’s economic outlook: elevated inflation on the back of higher prices of key commodities and rising borrowing costs will affect domestic demand, particularly private consumption in FY2023/24, while slowing global growth will inhibit growth in demand for India’s exports’
Increased domestic consumption
The Report did point to the fact, that India has witnessed a rise as a result in economic activities and increased consumption in recent months (private expenditure is a key driver of India’s growth). It would be pertinent to point out, that retail businesses witnessed a growth of 15% in August 2022 itself.
Consumer sentiment has also increased during the current festival season owing to the fact, that celebrations in 2020 and 2021 were muted due to Covid19. Both online and offline retailers who have given numerous promotions are likely to benefit from the increased consumption. E Commerce festive season sales which began towards the end of September witnessed a significant rise with maximum expansion happening in the personal care sector as well as electronics.
Here it would be important to point out, that a significant portion of the demand is coming from Non-Metro cities and tier 2 and 3 cities and is not been driven by metros. If one were to look at sales growth in August 2022, region wise it is interesting to note that East India witnessed growth of 19% as compared to August 2021, while North India saw a growth of 18 percent vis-à-vis August 2021. South and West India witnessed 12 percent and 11 percent growth respectively vis-à-vis August 2021.
Apart from consumption, domestic tourism has also picked up significantly in recent months (though India has still not been able to attract many international tourists ever since it has opened up) and been one of the drivers of growth. The easing out of restrictions, and the fact that individuals were not able to travel for two years were the propelling factors, apart from the restrictions on international travel which were eased out b. In April 2022, domestic passenger traffic was estimated at 10.5 million, which was only 5% lower than the pre-covid levels — 11 million — in April 2019. The hospitality sector witnessed an over 300% (339.3%) year on year revenue rise in the April-June quarter. It is not just leisure trips, but also ‘staycations’ to nearby luxury hotels, as well as destination weddings which have helped in giving a significant boost to the hospitality sector. As a result of increased domestic tourism during the pandemic not only have earlier unexplored destinations managed to attract tourists, but even those in the hospitality industry have been compelled to look at newer models (it is likely for instance that more luxury resorts will come up near metropolitan cities).
In conclusion, while the forecast for India’s growth may have dipped increased consumption, especially during the festival season will give a boost to the economy, apart from the tourism and hospitality sector. It is interesting to see that consumption growth in India is not driven any longer by metropolitan cities or some specific regions. At the same time, the geopolitical uncertainty – especially arising out of the Ukraine-Russia war – as well as the global monetary policy could pose significant challenges to the economy.
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The Baltic States’ economy is in bad condition. The latest estimate from the EU’s statistics body shows that Eurozone inflation is continuing to soar to record highs.
The Baltic countries continue to be the hardest hit. These states in particular are experiencing the highest levels of inflation in the Eurozone. Thus, inflation in Latvia and Lithuania hit 22.4 per cent and 22.5 per cent respectively. Estonia also has seen inflation rise year on year from 6.4 per cent in September 2021 to 24.2 per cent in September 2022. The more so, the Baltic States continue to see soaring energy and food prices which lead to declining standard of living.
The Bank of Lithuania has published its latest economic forecast and revised gross domestic product (GDP) growth projections for 2023 from 3.4% to 0.9%.
Statistics Lithuania also reports that in September 2022, the consumer confidence indicator stood at minus 16 and, compared to August, decreased by 5 percentage points. The decrease in the consumer confidence indicator in September was determined by negative changes in all of its components.
According to SEB bank economist Tadas Povilauskas, the number of poor people in Lithuania will increase. Living standards will be affected by rising food and energy prices. The current price of natural gas is too high and the economy cannot “go” with it. It is evidently that energy prices shocks have far-reaching effects on Lithuanian economy and population.
The main cause of such state of affairs is deteriorated relations with Russia. Russia has lately been the EU’s top supplier of oil, natural gas, and coal, accounting for around a quarter of its energy.
The conflict in Ukraine and political confrontation between Russia and the West has exacerbated the energy crisis by fuelling global worries it may lead to an interruption of oil or natural gas supplies from Russia. Moscow said in September it would not fully resume its gas supplies to Europe until the West lifts its sanctions.
It is obviously that the conflict in Ukraine dramatically worsened the situation on the markets, as Russia and Ukraine account for nearly a third of global wheat and barley, and two-thirds of the world’s exports of sunflower oil used for cooking. Ukraine is also the world’s fourth-biggest exporter of corn.
According to Euronews, the prices of many commodities – crucially including food – strained global supply chains, leaving crops to rot, caused panic in many European countries, including the Baltic States.
High inflation has become the direct consequence of sanctions imposed on Russia. As for the Baltic States, the lack of wisdom to find compromises and blindly following the European Union’s decisions have lead to declining standards of living. The desire to punish such huge state as Russia played a cruel joke on the Baltic States. It will be difficult to explain the population why they should turn down the heating in homes, schools and hospitals over the winter.
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