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The Indonesian economy shrunk by 2.2 percent in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the first contraction since 1998. But this seemed shorter-lived and milder than the declines in Malaysia (5.6 percent), Thailand (6.1 percent), the Philippines (9.5 percent), Singapore (5.4 percent) and India (8 percent).
By 2021, the economy was on its way to growth. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the 9 months to September 2021 was 3.2 percent with growth for the whole year estimated at 3.6 to 3.7 percent. Government spending and gross fixed capital formation were the main drivers of growth, growing at 3.6 percent respectively. Consumption grew 1.5 percent, well below the 5 percent average in the years prior to pandemic. In the third quarter of 2021, out of the 3.5 percent GDP growth year-on-year, consumption contributed a meagre 0.55 percent. Given the large share of consumption in the GDP, it will be difficult to achieve 5 percent growth as long as consumption growth is depressed.
The realized budget to November 2021 showed strong growth in government revenue of 19.4 percent to Rp 1.7 quadrillion (US$121.4 billion). Both tax revenue and non-tax revenue grew strongly, with total receipts already exceeding the 2021 target by 28 percent due to higher commodity prices, especially oil, coal and palm oil. Coal prices were above $200 per ton, more than double the year before. Indonesian Crude Oil Prices (ICP) rose 55 percent to $85 per barrel, well above the $45 used as an assumption in the 2021 budget.
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