Morning Bid Europe

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets

By Tom Westbrook, Chief Correspondent

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In icy Iowa, Donald Trump appeared set to win Republicans’ endorsement in the first-in-the-nation presidential nomination contest by an unprecedented margin.

His win had been predicted by opinion polls but was nevertheless a strong start to his election bid and suggests that investors ought to brace for a bumpy ride as he injects volatility into the debate over trade and foreign policy and, likely, into financial markets.

Today’s Market News

Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during his Iowa caucus night watch party in Des Moines, Iowa, U.S., January 15, 2024. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

Hawkish in Davos

In snowy Davos on Monday, European policymakers sent a tremor through bond markets with hawkish remarks pushing back on pricing for deep and imminent interest rate cuts.

Treasuries were shaky in Asia on Tuesday upon their return from a long weekend break in the U.S., and the dollar was on the rise.

MSCI’s Asia ex-Japan share index slumped to a one-month low, dragged down by the Hang Seng’s 2% drop to a 14-month trough.

British labour market data, Hugo Boss earnings and a German sentiment survey will highlight the European day, ahead of the U.S. Empire manufacturing survey and pre-market results from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

A speech by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is also highly anticipated, given he will be addressing the economic outlook and is assumed to be close in thinking to Chair Powell.

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Red Sea risks

What he says about the clear downward trajectory of the core PCE measure of inflation should make for interesting reading, as will whether or not he pushes back on markets’ expectations for rate cuts.

Fed funds futures fell sharply in Asia trade on Tuesday, although they have already priced in some 160 bps of rate cuts this year.

One risk to the good news story on inflation is the disruption to shipping in the Red Sea, with a missile striking a U.S.-owned dry bulker on Monday and Yemen’s Houthi movement vowing to expand its targets in the region.

Shipping rates have climbed as freighters divert to an alternate route around the Cape of Good Hope.

Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

Economics: Final German CPI, German ZEW survey, UK unemployment, Empire manufacturing survey
Earnings: Hugo Boss, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley
Speeches: Fed’s Waller, BoE’s Bailey and Germany’s Halbeck

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.