1. Post-Fed hangover: Big money is way out of position with the notion that central bankers are going to cut interest rates. We got the rate pause Wednesday; but also signs that two more hikes are likely this year. The Fed must do what it can to stop home prices from rising. Monetary policymakers are also concerned about the inflation implications of the resilient job market on wage growth.
2. The Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are set to open lower Thursday, one day after the Fed decision sent stocks on a wild ride. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which hit highs back to April 2022 earlier in the session, initially sank. By the close, they both managed slight gains. The Dow also plunged on the Fed’s so-called hawkish pause but only was able to trim some of its losses.
3. Lennar (LEN) blows away numbers and home prices have come down. Raw costs have come down. Best of all possible worlds for them but not for a Fed trying to keep a lid on shelter.
4. Big economic data dump: Weekly jobless claims 262,000 versus 245,000 expected; May retail sales up 0.3% versus down 0.2% expected; Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for June: negative 13.7 versus negative 14.8 estimate; and Empire State manufacturing index for June: 6.6 versus negative 16 estimate.
5. We covered a lot of ground Wednesday during our June Monthly Meeting for Club members, providing updates on all 35 stocks in the portfolio. We also addressed a conundrum facing many investors: How to adhere to our own it, don’t trade it mantra on Nvidia (NVDA) and still book profits so you don’t give all your gains back to the house.
6. HSBC upgrades Club name Emerson Electric (EMR) to buy from hold. Raises price target to $100 per share from $79. The analysts call EMR a “completely transformed automation pure-play.”
7. HSBC also on the board with a big price target boost on Club name Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to $120 per share from $77. Keeps hold rating. Argus Research takes PT to $170 from $100. Keeps buy.
8. Two price target hikes on Club holding Microsoft (MSFT): Mizuho to $360 per share from $340 (keeps buy rating), and JPMorgan to $350 from $315 (keeps buy-equivalent rating). Mizuho cites a “well-rounded” cybersecurity platform. JPMorgan says “cloud optimizations” setting up long-term Azure growth.
9. Happy Cava IPO Day. Shares of the Mediterranean restaurant chain were priced Wednesday evening at $22 each, valuing the company at $2.5 billion. Cava is set begin trading Thursday. Ticker: CAVA.
10. Citigroup‘s CFO warned Wednesday that the bank in the second quarter will incur severance costs for around 1,600 job cuts. The Financial Times reports 5,000 total cuts by the end of June.
(See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.)
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