Joe Biden and Anthony Albanese have met with Xi Jinping at G20 — proving power trumps the rules
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We do not live in a global rules-based order. We live in a power-based order.
Xi Jinping's separate meetings with Anthony Albanese and Joe Biden on Tuesday prove that — if any proof was necessary.
Xi Jinping is the same Xi Jinping today as he was yesterday. The leader who has overseen what has been called a genocide against the Uyghur Muslim minority.
The same Xi Jinping who threatens war with Taiwan. The same Xi Jinping who crushes dissent. Who has strengthened his iron grip on Hong Kong, tearing up the commitment to one country two systems.
He is the same Xi Jinping who Joe Biden called a thug.
The same Xi that calls Vladimir Putin his best friend and inked a no-limits pact with the Russian leader on the eve of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Joe Biden and Anthony Albanese are sitting down with Xi Jinping not because he is a friend but because he is powerful. He may well be the single most powerful leader in the world.
He is leader for life of the most important economic nation on the planet. The world's biggest engine of economic growth and soon to overtake the United States as the single biggest economy. By some measurements it already is.
China is indispensable. It is not Russia. It cannot be easily isolated. Sanctions would cost us.
War with China would be catastrophic. Economically it would be like mutually assured destruction.
The G20 is in full swing on the resort island of Bali. But as usual, all the big moments and intrigue are happening on the sidelines of the summit.
It is too late to expect China to become like us. Albanese is right that China has a different system.
Obviously not liberal democratic. But that does not mean it is not legitimate.
It is part of the world order. It is a member of the World Trade Organization, the World Health Organization, a veto-wielding permanent five member of the United Nations Security Council, a contributor to global peace keeping.
China's rise has been aided by the global order. But it isn't reflected in the global order. The big institutions are still dominated by the post-war Western powers.
Only a European or American, for instance, can head the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank.
That post-war compact is torn. Not that America is not still powerful, not that Europe is not important, but China is undeniable.
Xi knows that. He says constantly the West is waning and the East is rising. He demands China get a bigger seat at the table.
He has set down red lines and he will not back down. Taiwan will be "reunified" with the mainland he says by force if necessary.
That is non-negotiable.
He is preparing for war even as we must hope it does not happen. He is building a military to match his economic power.
China is here. It cannot be wished away. The United States is not the world's sole superpower.
For Australia there is a thaw in the frozen diplomatic relationship with China. Australia's future is determined by how we manage relations with the big two.
But the world's fate is driven by the big two themselves.
The big question: who will shape the 21st century?
Democracy is in retreat globally. The US appears as a nation exhausted.
The midterm elections may have given some pause to Trumpism. But Donald Trump was always a symptom of a deeper malaise, and that has not gone away.
America's social contract is broken. It is crippled by inequality. It is lacerated by race.
Joe Biden is a pause from Trump's excess and disruption. Even if he runs and wins a second term, he is not the future of the US.
More broadly, the West cannot expect that liberal democracy that triumphed in the 20th century will meet the challenges of the 21st century.
It is tested at home and abroad.
Market-first neoliberalism ran aground in the 2008 global financial crisis. Globalisation has produced as many if not more losers than winners.
Those left behind have fallen for the siren song of political populists. From Hungary to Poland, Italy, India, Turkey, the US, race-based nationalists, far-right white supremacists and identitarians have triumphed.
The West is not finished nor is America. The war in Ukraine has reinvigorated liberal democratic resolve.
But Russia has never been the big question. China is.
If Western leaders are unsure what the 21st century looks like. If they lack vision other than holding on to past glories. Then Xi certainly knows what he wants.
His dream is China returned to the apex of global power.
There are questions about China. Its future is not assured any more than the West is doomed. It is ageing. Its economy is slowing. COVID has revealed the limits of Xi's ability to control everything.
There are many "ifs" about China. But "ifs" are not a basis for our foreign policy.
We must understand Xi. We must appreciate that history matters. National humiliation is in his bones.
Xi may look at the West with vengeance, but he also wants what the West has. Chinese Communist Party leaders from Mao Zedong to Deng Xiaoping to Xi have sought to beat the West at the West's own game.
There are similarities between the West and China as there are differences.
But the differences are fundamental.
We must understand that in China at least under Xi, harmony is more important than freedom.
Harmony will be imposed by force.
We must share a world with a power and a man that wants a greater say in the rules-based order. But may yet still be prepared to play by the rules.
China may be odious to many. Xi may be a thug, but he cannot be ignored.
We are talking to Xi again. That is important for the hopes of peace and stability. But it also tells us that morality will be less important than interests.
That's how the power-based order works.
But now that we are talking we still have to find a language both sides can understand.
Stan Grant is the ABC's international affairs analyst and presenter of Q+A on Thursday at 8.30pm. He also presents China Tonight on Monday at 9:35pm on ABC TV, and Tuesday at 8pm on the ABC News Channel.
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