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Belarusian activists reported in the early hours of July 15 that a large convoy of military vehicles bearing so-called “DPR/LPR” license plates crossed into Belarus from Russia.
Belaruski Hajun, an independent Belarusian media outlet that monitors the military, reported that at least 60 vehicles have been seen travelling in convoy and entering Belarus from Russia at the Krichev crossing point.
The column, comprising pickups, large trucks, ISO container vehicles and at least three buses, was accompanied by Republic of Belarus traffic police.
Map reportedly showing route of “Wagner” convoy in Belarus. Source: Belaruski Hajun Telegram channel.
The convoy, which activists have identified as carrying Wagner Private Military Company troops, entered Belarus overnight from the Russian Federation. It proceeded from the Krichev passing through Rogachev towards Bobruisk and then to Osipovichi.
The route taken indicates that it was moving to the tent camp in the village of Tsel, previously assumed to have been prepared for use by Wagner forces “exiled” after the failed mutiny on June 23 and 24.
The Belarus reports identified “a combination of factors [that] indicates that this is a convoy of the Wagner PMC.” These include license plates carried by a number of the vehicles which showed they had been registered in the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples’ Republics.
It comes after videos were released on July 14 showing Wagner fighters training Belarusian troops and a second video which showed a convoy, matching Belarus reports, heading north on the M-4 highway. Some are thought to have been in the country since July 12.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko brokered a deal to end a Wagner rebellion in Moscow after the mercenaries took control of the Russian city of Rostov and marched towards Moscow.
Under the agreement, the group’s head Yevgeny Prigozhin stood down his fighters and agreed they would move to Belarus in exchange for Russia dropping charges.
Russia is worried about the loss of Belarus, so Wagner is there to get out of what is left of Putin’s hair and to prop up the weak Lukashenko. No motivation other than that.
I would say to the Ukrainian military to be suspicious of the Wagner mutiny (it seemed staged), Prigozhin’s exile, and Wagner’s so-called training of Belarusian military in Belarus. I suspect it’s all a ruse to position force’s near Kyiv so Wagner can attempt a rapid assault on Kyiv to capture Zelensky.
@Walter, I believe you may be looking at the wrong country. Wrong country, right “special military operation/war”. There are bigger strategies to consider. So, don’t look at Kyiv so much as Poland. Notice that even before Wagner Troops arrived, Poland strengthened it’s border at Belarus. They did so within days of days of The Russian Wagner deal. We must consider the possibility this is all a long planned strategy with Prigozhin, Putin, and Lukashenko being co-conspirators. Even if it’s not entirely planned and Putin may be using the opportunity as a strategy. That is what one does when something goes unexpectedly. You say to yourself “How can I use this to my advantage? Also question why it took so long for Wagner to arrive in Belarus. I believe it wasn’t until the wee hours of this past morning that they finally showed up,
@mark, An attack on Poland = an attack on NATO = WW3
@Dimitry Merdevedev, @Dimitry Merdevedev, Yes, Poland is NATO, but keep in mind Putin has publicly, emphatically stated Wagner is not an official Russian entity and they’re not on his books as a Russian-supported military entity. Therefore, if Wagner attacks Poland, it’s not Russia, it’s a lone wolf entity (even though Putin has funded them).
@Walter, Poland is well on the way to having the biggest armed forces in Europe and would be well-able to see off Wagner. Plus, any adventure would face full air power not just from Poland itself but other NATO members as necessary. If Wagner put a toe over the border it would be toast.
@mark, Yes, I believe you’re correct; Poland makes for a much more likely target. I assume Putin’s pissed Poland’s so generous and supportive of Ukraine, making it much more difficult for Russia to murder civilians and steal washing machines and territory.
@Walter, Except it wouldn’t be that rapid, Kyiv is very well-defended, and much of the Belarus/Ukraine border is radioactive bog
@Walter, Walter, there are very limited physical access points to enter Ukraine from Belarus. Those limited physical access points are well secured by Ukrainian forces.
@Jack Griffin, Thanks Jack; it’s good to know Ukraine is well prepared for all possibilities. Of course they’re 100 steps ahead of anything I could imagine.
Perhaps Wagner will stage a coup in Belarus. The Belarusian Armed Forces would probably join them.
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