The only way to prevent Vladimir Putin using nuclear weapons and dragging the West into a Third World War is to let Ukraine use its Western-supplied arms to launch a pre-emptive strike against Belarus, a KGB historian has warned.
Dr Yuri Felshtinsky, who has spent decades documenting Russia’s secret police, now known as the Federal Security Service (FSB), believes that Russia is preparing to use Belarus as a launchpad for nuclear strikes against Ukraine.
The “only way to avoid this situation” is to give Ukrainians “free hand” to use Western weapons against Belarus, he told i.
Dr Felshtinsky, a Russia-American historian, has spent his career documenting crimes by the Russian state. He came to international attention with his 2002 book Blowing Up Russia , authored with Alexander Litvinenko, the former FSB officer turned defector who was murdered with polonium in a London sushi restaurant in 2006, allegedly on the orders of Mr Putin.
His latest book, Blowing up Ukraine: The Return of Russian Terror and the Threat of World War III, co-authored with Ukrainian historian Michael Stanchev, argues that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the beginning of a new world war, and that this is another 1939 moment for the West.
In recent months, Western leaders have voiced alarm at Mr Putin’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric and threats to use nuclear weapons as he suffers setbacks in Ukraine.
Last week, Russia conducted massive nuclear drills, test-firing its strategic weapons, in an overt demonstration to the West of its capabilities.
However, Mr Putin will avoid using nuclear weapons from Russian territory to avoid retaliation from Nato’s nuclear powers, Dr Felshtinky said, “because this would be both stupid and suicidal”. The historian added: “His major hope is to get everything without a fight.”
Instead, said Dr Felshtinky, the Russian leader would move nuclear weapons from his country into its neighbour to the west, Belarus.
Belarus has become dependent on Russia since mass protests erupted in 2020 following rigged elections and its authoritarian president Alexander Lukashenko has only managed to cling onto power through repression and Russian support.
Russia is sending thousands of troops into its neighbour, prompting fears of a joint invasion across Ukraine’s northern border, and Belarus might have little power to refuse the movement of nuclear weapons into its territory.
“Putin’s calculation is very simple,” said Dr Felshtinksy. “I think this is the reason why he keeps Belarus independent – although of course Belarus is under his control – so he would have this opportunity to fire nuclear weapons from Belarus and frighten the West.
“If these nuclear weapons are, technically speaking, used by Belarus and Lukashenko, not by Russia and Putin, would the West retaliate against the Russian Federation? I would seriously doubt that that’s what would happen.”
Giving Ukraine permission to use Western-supplied weapons against Belarus, which it does not currently have, would be “the only way to avoid this situation”, he added.
While Ukraine is being supplied with weapons from countries including the UK, Poland, the Czech Republic and the US, Kyiv does not have permission to use those weapons outside Ukraine – namely in Russia or territories under Russian control.
Dr Felshtinksy said: “The West would need to act preventively against first moving nuclear weapons into Belarus, but then probably against Belarus itself”, as the “only way to prevent him from moving these nuclear weapons to Belarus and firing from Belarus”.
He added: “If nuclear weapons are already moved to Belarus, then it is too late to strike. The decision to strike pre-emptively is a political question. What the level of prevention should be is a military question.
“If the way of prevention is a military strike against the state of Belarus this should be considered and done to avoid nuclear destruction of eastern Europe.
“All you need to do just to give Ukrainians weapons, which is needed, and permission, which is needed. It’s still a complicated political and military decision and a risky one. But I think that it’s the best option we have.
“It’s a political decision, a military decision, but I think if Nato gives Ukrainians free hand in Belarus, this would help a lot in minimising the risk of nuclear weapons.”
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