Johnson, Sunak and Mordaunt take aim at No 10

Good morning, weary reader, and rest assured: nobody’s resigned from anything since you went to bed, so far as I can tell. They didn’t need to. George Canning, the shortest serving prime minister in British history until yesterday, had his period in office finished off by a deadly bout of pneumonia. For Liz Truss, the end was brought about by a total systems collapse.

There wasn’t anything very dramatic about Truss’s exit, in the end: her resignation speech was 200 words long, and excruciatingly shorn of the usual banalities of pride, success, or paeans to Britain’s limitless future. Any of that would have felt hopelessly out of key. She walked out of No 10, spoke for 90 seconds, and walked in again. And that was that. I found I felt almost nothing at all. If you’re similarly numb, it’s worth reminding yourself: this is a staggering, and vastly consequential, moment, and the country – and the Tories – are in crisis.

Now the Conservative party, seeking to reassert its shredded reputation for ruthless competence, will try to find a new leader – or, very possibly, an old one – as quickly as it possibly can. Today’s newsletter, assembled with the help of Nimo Omer, is about what, and who, comes next. Here are the headlines.

Five big stories

In depth: ‘Boris can get this party started again’

Guess who’s back? Brady’s back. Yesterday afternoon the chair of the 1922 Committee of Conservative backbenchers, Graham Brady (above), whose presence on our TV screens is now as certain a portent of human misery as Simon Cowell was in the aughts, set out the format of the new Conservative leadership election – a race in which the rules will make all the difference.

Jessica Elgot has a full explanation of what’s in store, but the most important points are these: a 100-nomination threshold among MPs by Monday to make the membership stage means that the field is bound to be whittled down quickly. An indicative vote between the last two standing would seek to put pressure on party members to back the MPs’ favourite. If only one candidate hits that mark, there will be no membership ballot. And a new prime minister will be in place by next Friday at the latest.

In summary: after the long, slow nightmare of the summer, the Conservative establishment wants to turn the page as quickly and decisively as possible – and above all, it wants to avoid the members imposing a candidate as disastrous as Truss.

Here are the key questions as the race gets under way.

Surely there will be a general election now?

In short, to the consternation of every opposition party, the Question Time audience, the Daily Mirror, the 700,000 signatories of this petition, and quite possibly you: no. The next election is likely to be at the start of 2025, and changing that timeline is very hard to do.

Because the UK is a parliamentary democracy, elections are for individual local candidates – not prime ministers. So, in theory, the constant hokey-cokey of the last nine months has no bearing on the mandate of the particular MPs in place, and the only way to force an election is for a majority of the House of Commons to back a vote of no confidence.

As things stand, 40 Tory backbenchers would have to vote for an election that they would have every chance of losing, given Labour’s advantage, as high as 36 points in one poll yesterday. If whoever the next prime minister is also fails, some of them might be exhausted and embarrassed enough to do so – but even then, and however dysfunctional it might seem, it’s a tall order. Peter Walker’s explainer is from the Truss era – that is, three days old – but still useful.

Will MPs select Sunak by acclamation?

After spending Liz Truss’s premiership keeping an extremely low profile, Rishi Sunak is firmly back on the scene this morning, with at least 38 MPs declaring their support in a coordinated social media push last night. By some assessments he may be prime minister by Monday night. That outcome depends on finding such overwhelming support in Westminster that even if a rival gets past the 100 nomination mark they bow to the inevitable and concede.

While Sunak beats the other plausible candidates, apart from Boris Johnson, in recent membership polls, it is easy to see the former PM’s hardcore in the rank and file coalescing around Penny Mordaunt instead. So Sunak would certainly rather have the race sewn up early. But given the deep divides in the party over economic policy, as well as whether Sunak should be held personally responsible for Johnson’s demise, any impression of unity is likely to be only a superficial effect.

Could Johnson come back?

I’d prefer not to see any flight tracker screenshots on Twitter in the coming days as Boris Johnson returns from holiday in the Dominican Republic, thanks, but I don’t hold out much hope. Johnson’s allies were first out of the blocks with their endorsements after Truss resigned, while the Telegraph reported that Jacob Rees-Mogg and other old hands immediately fired up the “Back Boris” WhatsApp group to get a measure of his popularity among MPs.

Those inquiries suggest that the first hurdle is the highest for Johnson: if it is not clear to him that he can clear the crucial 100-vote mark, it appears unlikely that he will break cover and run.

This excellent piece by Pippa Crerar and Jessica Elgot suggests just how hard that will be. “If that happens I will immediately defect to the Labour party,” one MP says, with others believed to feel the same. “He’s done,” says a Sunak supporter. “He will say he is grandly not putting himself forward for the good of the nation because he knows he’ll get stuffed.” Some fear his return is the surest route to a split in the party and a rapid election.

The Telegraph reports that Johnson is “privately urging Rishi Sunk to join forces with him”, hardly a sign of confidence. Even one of his own supporters illustrated the baggage of Johnson’s past indiscretions: when Tory MP Brendan Clarke-Smith told Sky News he was “somebody who can get this party going again”, he probably didn’t have that kind of party in mind.

And yet. While ceilings on Johnson’s support have variously been put at 60, 70, and 80 votes, he is almost level pegging with Sunak on declared supporters, with 38 out so far, according to Patrick Flynn of political predictions site Smarkets, and only a quarter of MPs declared. Every erstwhile Truss supporter to have declared so far has backed Johnson. And the Guido Fawkes website, which also tallies unnamed supporters in positions of authority within the party, puts his count at 50.

Make of that what you will; at any rate, it seems much too soon to write Johnson off. And if he can make it to the membership round, he might be unstoppable.

Is Penny Mordaunt the “clean skin”?

The Portsmouth North MP was briefly favourite last time around, before her campaign was scuppered by the Daily Mail – and in one telling, she has a significant advantage over Johnson and Sunak: she can claim to represent a break with the past. On the other hand, the Conservative party’s appetite for bold experimentation may be a little lower than it was 44 days ago. Mordaunt lags behind her key rivals on early endorsements, with only 17 so far, but that could change quickly if Johnson bows out.

There are other potential candidates, from defence secretary Ben Wallace to international trade secretary Kemi Badenoch. (Peter Walker runs through some of them here.) But the rules of the contest mean they are likely to be winnowed out quickly, and there are reports that many will not stand at all. One candidate we can safely rule out: justice secretary and former party chair Brandon Lewis. A source (Landon Brewis?) told the Times that Lewis had been “inundated” with requests to put himself forward. None of his fanclub is on the record yet.

Is there a path to election victory for any of them?

The astonishing collapse in Conservative support under Liz Truss makes Labour the prohibitive favourites to win the next general election when it finally comes – but because those poll numbers are attached to Truss in particular, they may be softer than they look.

It still seems a formidable task. Whoever wins will face the same problem: whatever promises backbenchers make to rally round the leader in the early days, the fissures in the party over economic policy are too deep and too bitter – and now, too clunkingly obvious – for that to be likely to last.

Thank you for your support

So the lettuce won.

When we started First Edition, the Guardian’s flagship daily newsletter, we never imagined that the first six months would involve so much political drama. Three prime ministers, four chancellors and a crash in the pound that has left everyone exposed to the whims of the market. Through it all, Nimo Omer and I are publishing every weekday on subjects as varied as the war in Ukraine, the Queen’s death and the near-famine in Somalia – not to mention the comings and many, many goings at No 10.

And we couldn’t do it without your support. The Guardian has no billionaire owner pulling its strings – we rely on our readers. If you have valued and enjoyed our coverage, please consider supporting our fiercely independent journalism either via a regular contribution or a digital subscription. Whatever comes next, however many new prime ministers the Conservative party subjects us to, we’ll be here to follow all the twists, turns – and the vegetables that outlast them.

Archie Bland, editor, First Edition

What else we’ve been reading

• This Gina McKee interview with Zoe Williams really made me smile. Despite being one of the UK’s most prolific and identifiable actors, McKee seems down to earth, relatable and as, Williams puts it, “nice”. Nimo

• Taylor Swift’s new album Midnights was released overnight. Alexis Petridis gives it five stars and detects “a sense that Swift no longer feels she has to compete on the same terms as her peers”. Archie

• In this New York Times magazine long read, Bronwen Dickey investigates the alarming story of Katricia Dotson. The 14-year-old died in 1985 after police bombed the building she was living in and, unbeknownst to anyone, her bones ended up in a museum. Dickey tries to find out why. Nimo

• Ahead of the release of The Banshees of Inisherin, Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson give an agreeable double act interview – but the breakout star of Danny Leigh’s piece, as of the film, is the less well-known Kerry Condon. Archie

• As streaming services keep upping their fees, many people are wondering if the convenience is still worth it. Drew Millard ended his subscriptions in favour of good old fashioned free aerial TV. His verdict? Give it a go, it might surprise you. Nimo

Sport

Football | Steven Gerrard has been sacked by Aston Villa after less than a year as manager. The club made the decision 90 minutes after Villa’s 3-0 defeat to Fulham. Elsewhere Leicester moved off the bottom of the Premier League thanks to a 2-0 victory over Leeds. In the Women’s Champions League, Chelsea beat PSG 1-0.

Boxing | Tyson Fury will press ahead with a third fight against Derek Chisora on 3 December after the collapse of negotiations for a prospective domestic showdown with Anthony Joshua.

Football | Cristiano Ronaldo has been dropped from Manchester United’s squad for Saturday’s game at Chelsea. Erik Ten Hag has omitted Ronaldo as a result of the player refusing to come on as a substitute during Wednesday’s 2-0 win over Tottenham and walking down the tunnel before the end of the match.

The front pages

The Guardian leads with “The bitter end” and carries a picture of the moment that Liz Truss delivered her resignation speech. The Financial Times says “Truss quits after 44 days as PM”.

The Telegraph says “Boris Johnson tells Tories: I can save party from election wipeout” and reports that the former prime minister is “privately urging Conservative MPs to back him”. The Mail sets up the coming leadership election with “Boris v Rishi: fight for soul of the Tories”.

The Sun splashes with “Bojo: I’ll be back”, while the Express asks “He couldn’t could he … Will Boris bounce back to No10?” The Mirror carries a full page headline: “General election now”, while the i simply reads “Gone in 44 days”.

Something for the weekend

Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now

TV
The Peripheral (Amazon Prime Video)
Despite being not just an adaptation of a William Gibson short story but one from the creators of the mind-breaking Westworld, The Peripheral is gentle enough for non-sci-fi fans. Chloë Grace Moretz enjoys a thrilling adventure as a James Bondish figure caught up in a twisting quest in 2032 – until she is not enjoying it at all. Lucy Mangan

Music
Arctic Monkeys – The Car
Across six albums, Arctic Monkeys (above) have moved from indie to rock to funk to, on 2018’s Tranquility Base Hotel & Casino, songs that married Serge Gainsbourg and the Beach Boys. This time the sound is largely strings, sultriness, and honeyed soul. The band are somewhere mid-air, forever caught between Saturday night and Sunday morning: perfect chroniclers of both. Laura Barton

Film
Decision to Leave
With his adaptation of the Sarah Waters novel The Handmaiden, Korean director Park Chan-wook pivoted to the elegantly designed suspense thriller, to which he returns here. A cop, Hae-Joon (Park Hae-il) is electrified by a puzzling death and the victim’s beautiful wife, Seo-rae (Tang Wei) – but is she all she appears to be? A gorgeously and grippingly made picture. Peter Bradshaw

Podcast
Acid Dream: The Great LSD Plot (BBC Sounds)
Rhys Ifans tells the story of the Microdot Gang, who did big business in the 70s when Wales was a hotbed for LSD production, fuelling 60% of the world’s supply. “It’s like Bonnie and Clyde, but with fewer guns and more incense,” he says, bringing tales of farmhouse drug busts, backed by a Gruff Rhys score. Hannah Verdier

Today in Focus

Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

Zimbabwe has become the first country in Africa, and third in the world, to approve a HIV prevention drug newly recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO).

The country’s sustained fight against the virus has seen Aids-related deaths fall from an estimated 130,000 in 2002 to 20,000 in 2021. The government has also launched a strategic plan to end Aids by 2030.

Zimbabwe has also already reached its 90-90-90 target – 90% of people living with HIV knowing their status; 90% are getting antiretroviral treatment; and 90% having the virus suppressed.

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until Monday.

• Quick crossword

• Cryptic crossword