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TIME FOR CAKE: The Tories complete 13 years in power today — having managed to swap five prime ministers in that time. (The fifth, Rishi Sunak, happens to be turning 43.)
Celebrations will be muted: The party has a mountain to climb to win back voters’ trust on the economy and public services including the NHS (more on that below). A Tory official said the PM’s five priorities were the right ones and that he had “a proven record of getting stuff done.”
JUST IN: U.K. GDP grew by 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2023, according to ONS estimates. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who is still in Japan for G7 meetings, is releasing a statement imminently. Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves will also respond.
Looking up: Supermarket bosses told Treasury Minister John Glen on Thursday that food prices had peaked and would start falling significantly over the coming months, Steve Swinford reveals in the Times splash. He reports that No. 10 is said to be so concerned about the issue it looked at France’s policy of capping the price of food staples — but won’t be pursuing it.
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It comes after: The Bank of England hiked interest rates to 4.5 percent but also published some optimistic growth forecasts predicting the U.K. would escape recession relatively comfortably.
Like night follows day … The i paper reports some Tory MPs are now using those forecasts to argue for taxes to be cut sooner. Mel Stride’s suggestion that the base rate of income tax could be cut by 2p if all the people who left the workforce during the pandemic returned makes it into the Mail, Times and Telegraph.
LABOUR’S NHS BLITZ: Keir Starmer is visiting a biomedical research institute in London with Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who is touring morning broadcast studios. Starmer will record a pool clip around 10.30 a.m. He and Streeting will take part in a roundtable discussion on cancer research.
It’s all a lead-up to … Labour’s third “national mission” on health, due to be unveiled by Streeting in the coming weeks.
The trouble is: Paul Waugh argues in the i paper that Labour will lose its strongest attack line when, he reports, Sunak and Health Secretary Steve Barclay publish their long-awaited health workforce strategy around July 5 — the 75th anniversary of the NHS. “Labour will no longer be able to argue at the next election that the government lacks a plan,” he writes. “Starmer’s party may instead have to prove itself more on capital spending.”
COMING UP: A week on Sunday — so from May 21 — the Tories will have been in government longer than New Labour was (13 years and nine days between Tony Blair taking office and Gordon Brown’s resignation).
The great survivors: Political trivia whiz Mr Memory counts nine people who were members of the Tory government 13 years ago and also are now. They are Cabinet comeback kids Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove, Mark Harper, Grant Shapps, Andrew Mitchell and Chloe Smith … junior ministers Richard Benyon and Nick Gibb … and deputy Lords leader Frederick Curzon (7th Earl Howe) — the only one who’s served continuously for that whole time.
CAKE EATING, BUT PLANNED: A No. 10 official told Playbook that for his birthday, the PM looked forward to having his favorite carrot cake and dinner at home with his wife. He’ll head to Chequers over the weekend.
SCOOP — FORGET EUROVISION … THE ONLY ENTERTAINMENT YOU NEED THIS WEEKEND: Up to 600 Tory activists are due to flock to “a premier Bournemouth venue with ample parking” for the hotly anticipated Conservative Democratic Organization conference — aka the festival of diehard Boris Johnson fans — on Saturday.
Update on one highly prized guest: A spokesperson for Boris Johnson said he wouldn’t be attending. Organizers apparently haven’t got the memo and remain hopeful he might turn up. They told Playbook last night that BoJo has been “very supportive,” going so far as to sign eight bottles of wine for the auction when they’d only asked for one. (Johnson’s spokesman was unclear on the exact number).
Notably: Playbook hears CCHQ is sending Tory Vice Chair Paul Holmes to the event in an apparent show of party unity. He’s due to join a 2.30 p.m. panel debate with members on “rebuilding our grassroots,” according to the provisional agenda.
The atmosphere won’t be friendly … Judging from the Twitter feeds of CDO chiefs Peter Cruddas and David C Bannerman, who are openly calling for Sunak to be defenestrated and Johnson reinstated as prime minister.
Also on the agenda: There should be appearances from ultra BoJo loyalists Nadine Dorries, Priti Patel and Jacob Rees-Mogg … MPs Conor Burns, Andrea Jenkyns, Paul Bristow and Desmond Swayne … IEA Director General Mark Littlewood … and former Thatcher aide Nile Gardner, who is flying in from the States. GB News’ Dan Wootton has been lined up to interview Patel on stage in the afternoon. This will all be livestreamed.
As for the entertainment: Jenkyns — a trained opera singer — will kick things off at 11 a.m. with a rendition of “God Save the King” and then perform the national anthem again in the evening with a band. Things might pick up a bit after that with a live gig from Britain’s Got Talent stars Soldiers of Swing (me neither).
The best part is … the auction. Playbook has the list of prizes, and there are quite a few bottles of booze signed by Johnson going, including some Delaire Graff Sunrise Brut (said to be “among the most prestigious in the southern hemisphere,” which sounds like a euphemism for not very good). Alternatively, you could win Arsenal season tickets … a round of golf with Cruddas at the Wentworth Club … a signed first edition copy of Johnson’s book “The Churchill Factor” (Playbook doesn’t think there’s been a second edition) … lunch with Stephen Greenhalgh in the Lords … lunch with Spectator writer Steven Barrett at Lincoln’s Inn Chambers … lunch with Jacob Rees-Mogg … six boxed silver plate teaspoons with Thatcher’s face on them (with a signed copy of Gardner’s book thrown in) … or Harrods Champagne and truffles signed by Patel, Rees-Mogg and Dorries.
If that sounds right up your street: Cut-price £10 conference tickets are still being sold online — or it’s £40 down from £80 for the gala dinner. Claire Bullivant, chief executive of the CDO, told Playbook: “The people have spoken and it’s time for the grassroots and members to be listened to. Without our members we are nothing and we must value them and make our party more accountable to them … We’re ready to take control.”
It doesn’t end there: JRM et al are due at the National Conservatism conference a couple of days later, as the Tory right tries to seize the agenda post-locals.
The trouble is: Katy Balls argues in a Times column that since there’s no political threat from an insurgent right-wing party, “it’s harder for right-wing Tories to try to browbeat Sunak into going further on culture wars, Brexit or boats.”
Notably: Balls reports that at a live recording of the Spectator’s Coffee House Shots podcast on Wednesday, an audience of 200 people was asked who wanted to see Johnson return — and not a single hand went up.
NEW PESTMINSTER CHAPTER: Tortoise’s Cat Neilan’s top scoop revealing that a Labour MP reported a shadow minister to the Met for sexual assault is picked up all the major papers. The incident is alleged to have occurred at a 2021 summer party.
LABOUR AIDE OUT: Meanwhile, the Labour aide accused of sexual harassment who was to be let off with a warning has quit his job. Some are asking how it came to this — the woman who made the complaint tells my colleague Esther Webber, who broke the story: “There are still big questions to answer for the member of the front bench, and other senior officials who knew about his behavior, and took no action.”
ANOTHER BROKEN PROMISE: Labour leader Keir Starmer has ditched plans to write an autobiography and is repaying the £18,000 advance he got from publishers HarperCollins, the Times’ Henry Zeffman reveals. He is instead cooperating with a biography written by former Labour spinner Tom Baldwin.
BLURRED LINES: Shadow Commons leader Thangam Debbonaire refused to commit to repealing the Illegal Migration Bill were Labour to enter government — 24 hours after Shadow AG Emily Thornberry said, “I think we should repeal it, yes of course I do.” On Question Time last night, Debbonaire said “It would be irresponsible for me as a government minister in waiting to make a promise about when we will be able to timetable each and every single thing that we want to undo.”
POLICY WATCH: LabourList has got hold of an 86-page policy handbook circulated this week to members of Labour’s National Policy Forum, which is likely to form the party’s next election manifesto.
TRICKY TACTICS: The Times has a good read on how tactical anti-Tory voting helped bring about the party’s loss of 1,000 council seats and could decide the next election. Ben Ansell, professor of politics at Oxford University, has built a model that suggests tactical voting will make it “very, very, very hard for the Conservatives to break 200 seats, let alone get to a majority.”
Interestingly: A senior Tory source tells Chris Smyth and co that the coalition of chaos stuff is “not necessarily a line which we’re going to be pushing” — a tacit admission that the idea of a Starmer-Davey pact just doesn’t resonate in the same way as depicting Ed Miliband in Alex Salmond’s pocket.
HUNG TOGETHER: A new model by Bradshaw Advisory is the latest to predict the next election will produce a hung parliament, with Labour coming 13 seats short of forming a majority. Its findings, shared with Playbook, suggest that on current projections Labour would win 313 seats and the Tories 229. Bradshaw’s Tom Lees, a former aide to Michael Gove, has presented the results to the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems in the past year.
Danger stations: The most vulnerable seat in the country, according to the model, is Bury North, where the Tories’ James Daly has a wafer-thin 105-vote majority. IDS’ seat Chingford and Woodford Green comes eighth and Dominic Raab’s Esher and Walton 15th.
DESPERATELY SEEKING MILLIE: After the Spectator’s Lara Prendergast came up with “Millennial Millie” as a contender for the 2024 election’s key target voter group, More in Common’s Luke Tryl tried to find her. He concludes there could be 50,000 close-ish matches in the U.K. … but that ultimately Millie is likely to be a committed Labour supporter.
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THE LATEST SQUEEZE ON PROTESTS: Ministers are trying to use secondary legislation to lower the threshold for taking action against disruptive protesters, the Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith reports — despite the change being rejected by peers when presented in primary legislation. Lord Speaker John McFall raised the case on Twitter.
It comes after … the i paper’s scoop on royal superfan Alice Chambers, who was arrested and detained for 13 hours because she happened to be standing near some Just Stop Oil protesters. Chambers told BBC Newsnight: “Really you would think that this should never happen. Clearly there are processes that need to be put in place, or that weren’t followed.”
HACKS, WATCH OUT: Home Office Minister Andrew Sharpe confirmed in the Lords on Thursday that when the government rushed through parts of the Public Order Act in time for the coronation, they did not enact Section 17, which provides protection for journalists covering protests. That protection is not due to come into force until July — meaning journos planning on covering the next Just Stop Oil protest should watch out.
Police state much: The admission — spotted by Playbook’s Rosa Prince — will come as no surprise to Rich Felgate, the documentary maker who was detained at the coronation as he filmed protesters being arrested despite the fact he wore a prominent press badge.
EUROVISION GETS POLITICAL: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been barred by the BBC and other international broadcasters from addressing the Eurovision Song Contest (which Ukraine won last year and was meant to host). The Times’ Alex Farber reports that the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) was concerned Zelenskyy’s appearance risked politicizing the event. Ironically this has sparked a political row — former Tory culture sec Ed Vaizey calls on broadcasters to rethink the decision and there will surely be more backlash today.
Where the story has come from: A throwaway line in a piece for Times Red Box by the British Council’s Sarah Sands who writes: “A request from Ukraine to show a video of President Zelensky at the final was initially refused and remains under discussion.”
LAST NIGHT IN LIVERPOOL: The second semi-final featured 16 countries singing their hearts out for 10 spots, Playbook’s Noah Keate writes. Highlights included a celebration of Christmassy-sounding Ukrainian music, the hosts as drag queens and Peppa Pig leading a conga line. Just another normal Eurovision then.
Rise like a phoenix: The BBC contends that the second semi-final wasn’t as thrilling as the first, mainly due to the number of piano ballads “sapping the show of energy.” Successful last night were Albania (a proper family affair) … Cyprus (containing “several Love Island-style firepits,” per the BBC) … Estonia … Belgium (which takes listeners back to the 1990s) … Lithuania … Poland … Austria (a commentary on the low royalty rates facing songwriters) … Australia … Armenia (whose act has been singing in concerts since the age of 4) … and Slovenia.
How could I ever refuse: In an ideal world, every country would make the final. In reality, the unsuccessful semi-finalists were Romania, Denmark, Georgia, Iceland, San Marino and Greece.
Read this before you watch: The thousands of Eurovision fans descending on Liverpool Arena for the contest are being greeted with a sea of yellow-clad volunteers and Ukrainian flags adorning the facades of restaurants and bars. POLITICO’s resident Eurovision aficionado Sebastian Whale has a curtain-raiser ahead of the final here.
I’ll gladly be there: The BBC has a packed weekend schedule of Eurovision content: Everyone’s a Winner, celebrating songs which did not win Eurovision, is on BBC One at 7.30 p.m. tonight … The A-Z of Eurovision, originally broadcast in 2020, is on BBC Three tonight at 10.10 p.m. … Sam Ryder: Road to Eurovision, exploring the journey of last year’s U.K. runner-up, is on BBC Three this Saturday at 12.10 a.m. … and, of course, the Grand Final itself, hosted by Graham Norton (who is also commentating with Mel Giedroyc), Alesha Dixon, Hannah Waddingham and Julia Sanina starts at 8 p.m on BBC One on Saturday.
MIGRATION FIGURES: Journos are busy trying to get hold of the ONS’ net migration figures for 2022 before they come out in two weeks’ time. The Sun’s Natasha Clark reports they could top 700,000 — IDS tells her it’s “going to be a huge problem for the Conservative party.” The Telegraph’s Charles Hymas says net migration in 2022 could be as high as 997,000 and the Home Office fears it could hit 1 million this year.
SO WHAT WAS THE POINT OF BREXIT? The Sun’s Harry Cole reports the notorious EU regulation relating to the bendiness of bananas has survived the Brexit bonfire-that-wasn’t. In other words, it won’t be one of the 600-odd EU laws scrapped by the government this year.
SECURITY ALERT: The Cabinet Office has failed to get a grip on delivering national security vetting since taking over responsibility for the service in April 2020, a public accounts committee report argues.
CHILDCARE CONFLICT: Tory MP Miriam Cates told Chopper’s Politics podcast she shed a tear the day Jeremy Hunt announced billions of pounds for childcare support because it’s “utterly unconservative.”
Also not conservative: Thatcherism, according to Cates. “Thatcherite economics are not really Conservative because in my part of the world in South Yorkshire, in Stocksbridge, in a steel town, Thatcherism destroyed our local economy,” she told Hope. Clearly the coalition the Tories need to worry the most about is their own.
WHITEHALL WARS: Senior civil servants in the FDA voted to use “all means available” to challenge bullying, including targeted legal action, the Guardian reports.
SEEKING LONDON TORY: London Assembly member Andrew Boff will launch his bid for the Tory London mayoral nomination today with the promise to scrap Labour’s ULEZ expansion, restore local policing and build more quality homes. Kit Malthouse hinted earlier this week he might join the race.
PARLIAMENT: Not sitting.
MINISTERS SWARM TO JAPAN: Health Secretary Steve Barclay and Education Secretary Gillian Keegan both arrive in Japan for G7 ministerial meetings today. Barclay is keen to look at how the NHS can benefit from AI and other tech innovations, particularly in care homes.
TURKEY DECIDES: Turkish opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu accused Russia of spreading conspiracies and deep fakes ahead of the country’s hugely consequential general election on Sunday, my POLITICO colleague Paul Dallison reports. Make sure you read this story by Christian Oliver, POLITICO’s head of news, and Elçin Poyrazlar, on how Turkey’s moderate Muslim heartland will determine the election
ENERGY CRISIS: Expensive energy may have killed more Europeans than COVID-19 last winter, according to modeling by the Economist. Its analysis finds that countries with the highest excess deaths typically experienced the biggest increases in fuel costs, with estimates a price rise of around €0.10 per kwh related to around a 2.2 percent increase in a country’s weekly mortality.
PAKISTAN LATEST: Former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan was told he would remain in a police safe house for his own protection after Pakistan’s Supreme Court ruled his arrest was unlawful. The Telegraph reports the decision has been hailed by Khan’s supporters after two days of riots.
UKRAINE UPDATE: The U.S. Ambassador to South Africa Reuben Brigety accused the country of supplying weapons to Russia, despite it stating its neutrality on the war in Ukraine. The BBC says the ambassador claims a Russian ship was loaded with ammunition and arms in Cape Town last December.
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Transport Minister Huw Merriman broadcast round: GB News (6.50 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … Sky News (7.20 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Today program (8.10 a.m.) … TalkTV (9.05 a.m.).
Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting broadcast round: TalkTV (7.30 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.50 a.m.) … Sky News (8.05 a.m.) … Today program (8.30 a.m.) … LBC (8.50 a.m.).
Also on GB News Breakfast: Former Bank of England adviser Roger Gewolb (7.10 a.m.) … Former RMT Assistant General Secretary Steve Hedley (7.15 a.m.) … Former Chief Secretary to the Treasury David Mellor (8 a.m.).
Also on Sky News Breakfast: ASLEF’s General Secretary Mick Whelan (8.20 a.m.) … Former Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England Member Andrew Sentance (8.30 a.m.) … Crossbench peer and former U.K. National Security Adviser Peter Ricketts (8.40 a.m.).
Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Former U.K. Ambassador to Ukraine Leigh Turner (7.20 a.m.) … Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of England Howard Davies (7.40 a.m.).
Also on TalkTV Breakfast: Tory peer Ed Vaizey (7.05 a.m.) … Defense committee Chair Tobias Ellwood (8.30 a.m.) … True and Fair Party leader Gina Miller (9.20 a.m.).
(Click on the publication’s name to see its front page):
POLITICO UK: Eurovision comes to Liverpool.
Daily Express: Wrong! Wrong! Wrong!
Daily Mail: Don’t say convicts, it upsets criminals.
Daily Mirror: Interest rate pain — it’s not over yet.
Daily Star: Gotcha!
Financial Times: BoE lifts rates and warns inflation target will not be reached until 2025.
i: New U.K. inflation warning as Hunt admits key pledge may be broken.
Metro: Proof claws exists.
The Daily Telegraph: ‘Go back to work and we can cut tax by 2p.’
The Guardian: U.K. sends long-range missiles to Ukraine in first for west.
The Independent: Mortgage misery for millions as rates hit 4.5 percent.
The Sun: Phil — It’s not been easy for me or Holly.
The Times: Food prices ‘on way back down.’
The Economist: Peak China? — A special briefing.
EU Confidential: The team discusses the forthcoming Turkish election and the possible fallout should incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lose with the writer Hugh Pope.
Plus 6 of the best political podcasts to listen to this weekend:
Encompass: Paul Adamson talks to academic Tim Bale about his book on the Tory Party after Brexit.
Inside Whitehall: James Starkie and Jonathan Gullis interview Leveling-Up Secretary Michael Gove about his time in government.
Leading: Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell are joined by the former President of Sinn Féin Gerry Adams.
Rachel Johnson’s Difficult Women: Johnson speaks to former Evening Standard Editor Emily Sheffield about her career in journalism.
The Rundown: Alain Tolhurst and Caitlin Doherty hear from Tory MP James Sunderland and ConHome’s Henry Hill to discuss the fallout from the local elections.
UKICE (I Tell): Anand Menon is in conversation with former Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard about the role of women in public life and “Australia-style” politics in the U.K.
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Showers and highs of 14C.
Cricket update: There is none. Lobby XI remains undefeated at least until we get better weather (h/t Harry Cole).
NEW GIGS: Matthew d’Ancona joins Prospect magazine as a contributing editor … and a mystery woman has been appointed Twitter CEO by Elon Musk to start within six weeks (the Wall Street Journal reckons it could be NBCUniversal’s Linda Yaccarino). Good luck, as they say, with that.
JOB ADS: The Times is hiring an economics correspondent … and the Greater London Authority is looking for a senior policy and project officer.
OVER ON INSTA: Former Cabinet Minister Andrea Leadsom made a joke about Dominic Cummings’ Barnard Castle eye test three years late.
NEW BOOK: Times Radio’s Matt Chorley‘s Planes, Trains And Toilet Doors: 50 Places That Changed British Politics is out on October 12.
SW1 EVENT: Tory MP Bim Afolami, economist Kate Raworth and These Times podcast co-presenter Helen Thompson discuss whether we can have prosperity without growth in the Purcell Room at Queen Elizabeth Hall from 7.30 p.m.
ON THE AIRWAVES: Ahead of the Turkish election, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is the subject of Radio 4’s Profile on Saturday at 7 p.m. … or catch the repeat of Radio 4’s The Briefing Room which discussed the Online Safety Bill.
SUNDAY FILM CLUB: “The Mauritanian,” based on the memoir of Mohamedou Ould Slahi, a man detained at Guantanamo Bay from 2002 to 2016 without charge, is on BBC Two at 10 p.m. on Sunday … Ian Hislop’s Fake News: A True History, is on BBC Four at 11.25 p.m. … and Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie is on BBC One at 12.20 a.m.
BIRTHDAYS: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak turns 43 … Tory peer Mark Lancaster … SNP DEFRA Spokesperson at Westminster Patricia Gibson … Former Hartlepool MP Mike Hill turns 60 … Labour peer Helena Kennedy … Labour peer Tom Sawyer turns 80 … Tory peer and last governor of Hong Kong Chris Patten.
Celebrating over the weekend: South Northamptonshire MP Andrea Leadsom turns 60 … Former Home Office Minister Nick Hurd … Stoke-on-Trent South MP Jack Brereton … Former Liverpool Wavertree MP Luciana Berger … Southampton, Itchen MP Royston Smith … FDA General Secretary Dave Penman … Sunday Times Chief Political Commentator Tim Shipman … the Independent’s politics and Whitehall Editor Kate Devlin … Retired crossbench peer and former Supreme Court judge Tony Clarke turns 80 … Crossbench peer and former Daily Express Editor Rosie Boycott … Retired Tory peer John Cope … Broadcaster Richard Madeley … Former Australian PM Scott Morrison … Crossbench peer Jeffrey Evans … Former Sports Minister Gerry Sutcliffe turns 70 … Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg … Former Defense Secretary Michael Fallon … Former SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford … South Derbyshire MP Heather Wheeler … Spectator Editor Fraser Nelson turns 50 … Shadow Trade Minister Ruth Cadbury … Arfon MP Hywel Williams turns 70 … Crawley MP Henry Smith … Crossbench peer Sarah Hogg … SNP Social Justice Spokesperson at Westminster David Linden … Former Liz Truss speechwriter Asa Bennett … Tory peer Richard Balfe … Flint Global’s Sam Lowe … Scottish Green MSP Mark Ruskell.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Zoya Sheftalovich, reporter Noah Keate and producer Grace Stranger.
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