Analysts polled by Reuters doubt the BOJ will move to unwind its uber-easy policy this week, but one-fifth thought January was likely while the majority saw negative rates ending in April.
There have been conflicting reports about how serious the bank is considering a change, and it is possible that policy makers will discuss when and under what circumstances they will tighten.
The BOJ has shocked markets before with sudden policy moves, and the risk was reflected in a jump in implied volatility for dollar/yen.
Markets assume it is only a matter of time before negative rates are abandoned, which would make the BOJ one of the very few major central banks in the world tightening policy next year. While some Federal Reserve officials have tried to rein in expectations on easing, futures imply a 74% chance of a first easing as soon as March, and May has almost two cuts priced in.
In all, around 140 basis points of easing is implied for 2024, partly on the assumption the Fed will have to ease just to stop real rates from rising as inflation cools.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/VVOB3KT5ZFJGNNNWYMU4BRNOBE.jpg "Markets play 'will they or won't they' on BOJ 40")
