Since the beginning of March the EuroSTOXX index has risen 2.3%, Germany’s DAX is up 3.2%, the FTSE has climbed 3.4% and Spain’s IBEX is up 8.4%. The Nasdaq has been flat and the Nikkei has lost 1%.
Gold made a record high on Monday and bitcoin was lurking near a similar milestone.
There are reasons to be doubtful. Tuesday’s European bank lending survey may show a less rosy view on the outlook for the continent.
There are wars to the east, in Ukraine and the Levant, and receding expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. But therein lies the rub, too – nobody at all is talking of or expecting rate hikes, the focus being on the why and when of cuts.
Which is where the European Central Bank comes in on Thursday, to give an idea of its reaction function. Last week U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his dependence on data, but said recent upside surprises wouldn’t derail cuts.
