Covid-19 modeller Michael Plank has warned of the likelihood of New Zealand experiencing another wave of the virus.
"At some point we will likely see another wave (of Covid-19) and we'll see case numbers ramping up again, in large part due new variants emerging in the Northern Hemisphere," the University of Canterbury professor said.
It comes just weeks after most of New Zealand's Covid restrictions were dropped.
"The cases have dropped off a lot since the wave we had in July," Plank said. "Hospitalisations and deaths have also dropped off consistently. So I think we can be pretty confident that Covid is at a much lower level in the community now than it was a couple of months ago."
But he doesn't expect that situation to last forever.
"There's a series of new variants that are spreading in the Northern Hemisphere at the moment, and it looks like they have a growth advantage relative to BA.5, and that they're likely to be able to cause a significant wave of cases there," Plank said.
"With the borders open now it's likely that whatever's spreading in the Northern Hemisphere will come to New Zealand fairly shortly afterwards.
"Of course, the Northern Hemisphere's going into autumn and winter whereas we're going in the opposite direction, so that will work in our favour to some extent – but if we do see a sizeable wave in the Northern Hemisphere, I think we'd have to expect something similar to happen here as well."
He said he'd like to see updated Covid-19 vaccine boosters rolled out across Aotearoa in preparation.
People wearing face masks in Newmarket, Auckland. (Source: Getty)
"The vaccine is still in a league of its own as being the best tool that we have to really reduce the impact of this virus on our population. It's incredibly effective in reducing the risk of severe illness. So we need to continue to focus on getting people boosted, and making sure they're up to date with vaccination."
Plank says New Zealand needs to remain vigilant around Covid-19.
"I think we need to keep the tools in the toolbox," he said. "If we do see a sizeable wave, and it's starting to put pressure on our healthcare system, we might need some of those measures to flatten the curve.
"I think it's very early at the moment, it's early days and a lot really depends on when these variants arrive."
Speaking to media this afternoon, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said "we have modelled and have spoken before about the fact that we do expect that there may be another lift in cases before the end of the year".
"Our modelling doesn't suggest it will be any larger than what we've already experienced in 2022.
"When it comes to the issue of boosters and who they are available for, we follow clearly the judgement of clinicians and experts," she said. "They're constantly assessing what they think is most appropriate for the New Zealand population and as soon as they give us guidance to move, that's when we act.
"These aren't decisions for politicians, they're decisions for those who have expertise here."
Ardern said that there were no plans at this stage to change New Zealand's restrictions with the arrival of new variants.
Yesterday the Ministry of Health announced there have been 9975 new community cases in the past week.
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