In their sixth Trend Report for New Zealand, United Fresh provides an update on their local market and global influences. “As we learn to live with COVID-19 and begin the path to recovery socially and economically, New Zealand’s grocery shopping trends are showing the pandemic ‘hangover’ still affects our weekly food shop. These trends also indicate that changes wrought by the past two years may lead to better health and wellbeing for us all. While the unprecedented consequences of the global pandemic and war in Ukraine are driving an inflation-led cost-of-living crisis, there’s also a hint of sunshine in the reassessing of priorities many of us have made towards a more sustainable lifestyle. 
With so much change and uncertainty permeating our lives, it’s hard to imagine what the next month will bring, but we’ve picked out the top trends to watch for in the last quarter of the year, trends we hope will lead us all to a brighter 2023.
Post-Pandemic Diet Shifts
While we’re all concerned about our health and wellbeing, a new study has found that encouraging people to eat more fruit and vegetables in our post-pandemic world could avoid up to 26 million deaths annually by 2060.
The study reveals that most pandemic recovery plans around the world prioritise economic health over physical health, which could lead to poor dietary outcomes for millions struggling with the effects of inflation. Instead, by reducing the amount of meat eaten globally, foods such as fresh fruit and vegetables will become more affordable. The subsequent increase in the consumption of this produce will reduce premature deaths from diseases such as heart disease, stroke and cancer—conditions that are also risk factors for COVID-19 patients.
It seems unlikely that countries will enforce a reduction in meat-eating. Still, a survey in May showed Kiwis are actively seeking out fruit and vegetables, with 85 percent of us recognising the importance of eating five or more servings of fruit and vegetables every day. This trend is likely to continue in the years to come.
Warm and Wet Winters Ahead
It’s hard not to notice the changing weather patterns bringing more and more rain our way each winter. Unfortunately, the wet and warm conditions are also proving a challenge to the country’s $6 billion horticulture industry.
Our top export-earner, kiwifruit is no exception. Industry-insiders are concerned climate changes will significantly impact the growing regions of the Bay of Plenty and Northland. Winter temperatures are predicted to be too high for the fruit, which must be chilled by frosts late in the season to develop enough sweetness. In some climate warming scenarios, production would need to relocate to areas such as Taranaki or Canterbury to remain viable. While unlikely in the short-term, the variables of a changing climate are likely to see smaller harvest numbers, such as this year’s lower crop of kiwifruit. At the same time, growers may look to diversify into new varieties and could explore commercial plantings of fresh produce traditionally seen in the tropics.
Inflation Nation
Over 80 percent of Kiwi consumers have noticed an increase in food prices since the same time last year. Fuel prices, interest rates, shipping costs and labour shortages are creating the perfect storm for an extended period of inflation throughout the global economy.
Consumers are actively looking for more innovative ways to manage their weekly grocery spend, with only around 10 percent of all shoppers noting the pandemic has not affected their household budget. In addition, at least 30 percent of shoppers regularly seek out supermarket promotions such as multi-buys and opting for home brands.
The cautious approach we’re adopting to spending is likely to remain a trend for some time, with nearly 75 percent of Kiwi shoppers saying they think COVID-19 and its effects will stick around for at least another year. At the same time, the global economy is likely to continue to be impacted by the war in Ukraine.
Mental Health Matters Most
Research shows around half of all Kiwi consumers have re-evaluated their priorities in the last 12 months. From household spending to career and lifestyle choices, the pandemic has set in motion a raft of changes for our society. The 5+ A Day Charitable Trust have recognised this change and partnered with GP, Dr Dane Rua to encourage Kiwi families to increase their fruit and vegetable consumption to improve their mental health.
Mental wellness has topped a survey into what matters most to us over the next year, with 51.6 percent selecting this option over other important priorities such as physical health, stress management, saving for unforeseen circumstances and planning for the future.
For countries whose mental health services are at a crisis level, we all need to explore ways in which we can support our mental health independently through smart diet choices.
With the mind-to-gut connection firmly recognised, expect to see products from beverages to cereals and snacks all claiming to boost your mental health. At the same time, shoppers will also opt for foods with high nutrient values, such as fresh fruit and vegetables, which provide vitamins and minerals to support brain development.
Choosing Cardboard over Plastic
It’s no secret that food and beverage packaging contributes to a significant portion of household waste per year (as much as 54 percent, according to the World Packaging Organisation). Yet, surprisingly, new research shows consumers have embraced the climate-conscious message and will always choose cardboard over plastic when presented with the option.
The New Zealand government has announced its intention to phase out problem plastics and single-use plastics by 2025. With figures from the Ministry indicating that Kiwis throw away an estimated 159 grams of plastic waste each year, this makes us amongst the highest generators of waste in the world. For fruit and vegetable retailers, this means exploring new and innovative ways to present fresh produce to shoppers.
Fresh produce stickers have been under pressure, though new home compostable versions are in development.
The WFH Diet
Working from home is the new black. We’ve gotten used to the comfort of conducting a Zoom conference in our PJ pants, and we’re not going back to suits and heels in the office in a hurry.
With around 40 percent of our workforce expecting to continue working from home full-time or in a hybrid home/office scenario, our way of eating and shopping during the workday is changing dramatically. We’re visiting stores less often, snacking more, driving less, and sharing more meals with other members of our households.
The additional time at home allows us to prepare home-cooked meals more regularly rather than relying on pre-packaged snacks and ready-meals. Retailers taking note of this trend will also find many WFH shoppers using internet ordering for their weekly shop.
Blush Everything
The soaring popularity of a glass of chilled Rosé wine over the past two years has led to a surge in blush-hued everything in the northern hemisphere over the past few months, a trend which we can expect to see appearing on menus and in products this summer down under.
From cocktails to iced teas, sparkling waters and cupcakes, featuring strawberries and pretty pink blush tones are spreading across a range of food and beverage categories.
Packaging has also taken on the blush trend, with snack foods and confectionary adopting this ‘new neutral’, while fans of the colour really can ‘Rosé All Day’ as it spreads into the interiors market.
Strawberries will be as popular as ever this summer as a key ingredient to achieve the perfect blush tone, watch out for recipes on social media accounts for @5adaynz to stay on top of this trend.
Flexible ‘Fusion Shoppers’
The massive jump in online grocery shopping seen in 2020 and 2021 has adjusted slightly as consumers got used to returning to stores as pandemic conditions and alert levels eased. However, a large group have taken a hybrid approach to their weekly shop, combining online, click-and-collect and in-person shopping modes with other options such as farmer’s markets and subscription services.
These fusion shoppers have embraced the online offerings experienced during lockdowns but also like to shop in store from time-to-time, with fruit and vegetables highlighted as products shoppers preferred to select in person. As a result, retailers are re-thinking their traditional view of online and in-store offerings as different experiences and working on how to create a seamless experience for shoppers using any mode.
Overseas supermarkets have started to adapt their systems to allow hybrid shopping and offer greater options for this group of shoppers and we can expect to see supermarkets here looking for new ways to attract and retain this consumer group.
With around 40 percent of all households shopping online for groceries in the past year, demand is still high for this service, and we may see more ‘dark stores’ in operation to meet the demand for deliveries outside the main centres.
TikTok Tempts Tastebuds
The new social media kid on the block is taking the food world by storm, with content posted on TikTok influencing food trends around the globe within hours of being published.
By March this year, the hashtag #food had over 270 billion views on the popular app, while #recipes and #restaurant had 9 billion and 7 billion, respectively.
TikTok posts now make up over half of Google’s top trending food searches, and recipe videos are going viral at an astounding rate, often based on the simplicity and relatability of the ingredients and the resulting meal. But, rather than the overly produced perfection we’re used to on Instagram, TikTok is all about real people making (and messing up) food ideas in reach for the average cook. Kiwi consumers looking for meal ideas that are healthy and affordable should try @5adaynz for fun reels and recipes.
As inflation keeps our budgets tight, expect to see more prominent brands targeting viewers on TikTok with tips and easy ideas to use their products in a fuss-free, less curated way than we’ve seen in the past.
The Generation Gap
Our aging population of Boomers, the long-suffering Gen Xers, much-maligned Millennials and the emerging Gen Z kids are increasingly being targeted by grocery retailers for their vastly different preferences.
The view of health claims on products sees a real division between older shoppers focused on cutting back and younger cohorts looking for added benefits. For instance, one brand of snack bars would look to promote its ‘low sugar and salt’ attributes to a Boomer audience while describing the same bar as ‘organic, Fair Trade’ to a group of 20-somethings.
In general, our older population eat a healthier diet than younger generations, with 84 percent of those over 60 eating vegetables every day compared to just 67 percent of those under 30. As a result, retailers focused on the shopping channels and product types preferred by these demographics are increasingly refining how they deliver offerings to each group.”
For more information:
Sarah Cook
Tel: +64 021 125 2745
Email: sarah@villagenz.com
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