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Nickel to enter surplus by year-end – INSG
19th October 2022
By: Donna Slater
Creamer Media Contributing Editor and Photographer
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During an International Nickel Study Group (INSG) meeting on October 17 and 18, the group deduced that there will be negative growth in the stainless steel sector and that nickel will increasingly be used in batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), with both sectors set to increase output in 2023.
Government and industry participants extensively discussed current nickel market trends during the INSG meetings, during which they highlighted the combined impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – which have resulted in energy constraints, higher inflation and lower economic growth.
These factors have led to increased uncertainty in the global commodity markets, highlighted by the world stainless association’s figures for the first three months of the year pointing to stainless steel melt shop production decreasing by 3.8% year-on-year to 14.5-million tonnes.
Overall, the INSG reveals that global primary nickel production was 2.61-million tonnes in 2021. It is forecast to reach 3.04-million tonnes by the end of this year and 3.39-million tonnes in 2023.
Global primary nickel use was 2.77-million tonnes in 2021, with the INSG forecasting an increase to 2.89-million tonnes by the end of this year and 3.22-million tonnes in 2023.
However, the INSG forecasts that nickel pig iron production will continue to rise in Indonesia, but will further decline in China.
The conversion of Indonesian nickel pig iron to nickel matte in the country is anticipated to surge. Also in Indonesia, high pressure acid leaching plants are being commissioned to produce mixed hydroxide precipitate and are anticipated to continue to ramp up production strongly.
Both intermediate products (nickel matte and mixed hydroxide precipitate) will be exported to China to be further processed into nickel sulphate to produce EV batteries.
All-in-all, the INSG reveals that nickel market balances were in deficit of 163 000 t in 2021, but will be in a surplus of 144 000 t this year and by about 171 000 t in 2023.
Historically, the INSG says, market surpluses have been linked to London Metal Exchange deliverable/class I nickel, but in 2023 the surplus will be mainly owing to class II and nickel chemicals (principally nickel sulphate).
Edited by: Chanel de Bruyn
Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor Online
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