The unofficial guide to official Washington.
The unofficial guide to official Washington.
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By RYAN LIZZA and EUGENE DANIELS
Presented by
With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
Early voting this year has officially passed the early vote numbers for 2018. | Nicole Neri/AP Photo
ALMOST THERE — 2 days left until Election Day. … 39,272,372 early votes as of 1:16 a.m., per the United States Elections Project. … “Number of early votes cast surpasses early-vote total in 2018 midterm election,” WaPo’s Patrick Marley and Lenny Bronner
What do the early vote numbers tell us?
— Nevada: “Dems should be concerned,” The Nevada Independent’s Jon Ralston writes in a thorough dissection of that state’s numbers. Clark County, the Democrats’ power base in the state, “is only 66.6 percent of the vote that is in. That is 4.5 percent below its share of the overall vote. Forget that the firewall is down; that is a real red flag for the Dems.” Also this: “Repubs are at worst tied in all of the models right now, and if they are winning indies at all, they are ahead. Republicans feel confident they will win Election Day, so this is a bleak scenario for Dems.” One possible hope for Dems: “It’s all about the mail now.”
— Georgia: The early voting period ended on Friday with a total of 2,288,889 ballots cast — shattering the state’s early vote record for a midterm (and outpacing the 2016 election, for that matter), per the secretary of state. Combining the early in-person votes with mail-in ballots, more than 2.5 million ballots have been cast. Possible good news for Dems:AJC’s Mark Niesse notes that “Black voters account for 29% of early voters,” which outpaces the Black electorate’s share of the overall vote in 2020 (when they made up just over 27%). Of the 5 million or so Georgians who voted in the 2020 election, about 2.7 million have yet to cast a ballot, per Niesse — which suggests that thousands of early voters this year did not participate in 2020.
JUST POSTED — The final NBC News poll is out. Highlights, via Mark Murray:
— “Among all registered voters, congressional preference is tied at 47%-47% — essentially unchanged from last month, when Democrats held a narrow 1-point edge, 47%-46%.”
— Among likely voters, 48% “prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress … while 47% prefer a Republican-controlled Congress.”
— No gap in enthusiasm: “Democrats have caught up to Republicans in election interest. An identical 73% of Democrats and Republicans express high interest, registering either a ‘9’ or ‘10’ on a 10-point scale.”
— “47% of all voters say they want a ‘great deal’ of change in direction from the way in which [JOE] BIDEN has been leading the country — higher than what the poll showed for the first midterms for DONALD TRUMP (44%), BARACK OBAMA (41%) and BILL CLINTON (36%), all of which resulted in election drubbings for those past presidents.”
2024 WATCH — On the eve of Gov. RON DESANTIS’ reelection in Florida, Trump unveiled a new nickname for his top 2024 GOP rival: “Ron DeSanctimonious.” Trump snuck in the dig, which Maggie Haberman notes was previously test-marketed by ROGER STONE, during a Pennsylvania rally as he read the results of an old poll about the 2024 GOP field that showed him with an enormous lead over DeSantis that has now evaporated.
Trump has reason to be concerned. In POLITICO-Morning Consult polling about the 2024 Republican presidential field, DeSantis has gained 10 points this year, moving from 14% in Januaryto 24% in October. Trump hasn’t budged: His support was 49% in January and 49% in October.
Trump will spend tonight at a rally in Miami with Sens. MARCO RUBIO and RICK SCOTT. DeSantis was not invited.
ARE TOOTS THE NEW TWEETS? — As Twitter continues to be roiled by the erratic leadership of its new owner, ELON MUSK, the #TwitterMigration movement is gaining steam on the platform. PAUL KRUGMANannounced today that he has set up shop on Mastodon, which has already become a Twitter alternative for many users — including lots of well-known journalists and many academics — burned out by the site’s toxic culture. “I’ve opened a Mastodon account as a precaution against the possible Muskocalypse on this site,” Krugman tweeted to his 4.6 million followers.
If you’re thinking about checking it out,Gizmodo’s Dell Cameron has a good primer. We were struck by this portion of the Gizmodo piece about how Mastodon users view Twitter, which they generally refer to as “the birdsite.” It makes Mastodon sound like a recovery program for social media junkies:
“New users realizing how damaging the birdsite has been to their mental health is a pretty common experience. A lot of people seem to be waking up to the fact that they’ve been addicted to it, and that it’s encouraged them to behave very poorly toward others. So while it’s still common to see screenshots of tweets on Mastodon, at least some users are kindly doing what they can to help others move on and restore emotional balance to their lives.”
We definitely cannot relate to that paragraph in any way whatsoever.
More from CNN’s Rachel Metz: “With Twitter in chaos, Mastodon is on fire”
Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your new Mastodon profile: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
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BIG PICTURE
WHERE THINGS STAND — “Post-ABC poll: House vote nearly split, GOP has edge on economy and turnout,” by WaPo’s Dan Balz, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin: “Voters’ intentions for the House are split about evenly, with 49 percent of registered voters saying they will vote for the Republican candidate in their district and 48 percent saying they will vote for the Democrat. Likely voters split 50 percent Republican and 48 percent Democratic.”
STILL STRUGGLING — “Biden won on infrastructure. Democrats are struggling to get voters to care,” by Tanya Snyder, Jordan Wolman, Annie Snider, John Hendel and Eleanor Mueller: “Polls show most voters have no idea Congress even passed the legislation — let alone that it’s already set to provide tens of billions of dollars to projects such as rail tunnels under the Hudson River, Everglades restoration work in Florida or a bridge replacement in Tennessee.”
BACK FOR MORE — “Russia Reactivates Its Trolls and Bots Ahead of Tuesday’s Midterms,” by NYT’s Steven Lee Myers: “It has specifically targeted Democratic candidates in the most contested races, including the Senate seats up for grabs in Ohio, Arizona and Pennsylvania, calculating that a Republican majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives could help the Russian war effort. The campaigns show not only how vulnerable the American political system remains to foreign manipulation but also how purveyors of disinformation have evolved and adapted to efforts by the major social media platforms to remove or play down false or deceptive content.”
BUCKLE UP — “Trump and other Republicans are already casting doubt on midterm results,” by CNN’s Daniel Dale
GOTTA HAVE FAITH — “In existential midterm races, Christian prophets become GOP surrogates,” by WaPo’s Michelle Boorstein in Chambersburg, Pa.
DEMOGRAPHIC DIVE — “Democrats need union voters if they hope to keep control of Congress,” by WaPo’s Lauren Kaori Gurley
ABOUT LAST NIGHT — “The Obama Nostalgia Show,” by The Atlantic’s Elaine Godfrey, reporting from the Dems’ mega-rally in Philadelphia: “When the 44th president came on stage, the crowd greeted him like a long lost friend — or a favorite teacher who’d returned after a series of varyingly unimpressive substitutes.”
WAY DOWN-BALLOT — “Why Uber and Hillary Clinton care about a minimum wage vote in Portland, Maine,” by Eleanor Mueller
BATTLE FOR THE SENATE
SELZER FIZZLES DEM HOPES — A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Republican Sen. CHUCK GRASSLEY with a double-digit lead over Democrat MIKE FRANKEN, 53% to 41%, among Iowans who’ve already voted or say they will definitely vote. “It’s a seemingly insurmountable lead, though anything can happen,” said pollster J. ANN SELZER.
SHRUG EMOJI — “Oz Could Be the First Muslim U.S. Senator, but Some Muslim Americans Are Ambivalent,” by NYT’s Liam Stack: “The alienation many Muslims feel from Dr. [MEHMET] OZ stems from his vocal backing from former President Donald J. Trump, who once said he would ‘strongly consider’ closing mosques in the United States, told an interviewer that ‘I think Islam hates us’ and, as president, banned travel to the United States from several predominantly Muslim countries. In other words, the first Muslim senator might be a man who owes his political rise to a figure who spread Islamophobia more widely than any other recent American leader.”
WINNING TIME — “In Georgia, Could a Football Win Help Walker Win as Well?” by NYT’s Maya King in Athens, Ga.: “Even serious political analysts acknowledge that the [Georgia] Bulldogs’ strong season — they are undefeated in the powerful S.E.C. so far — may be helping [HERSCHEL] WALKER in his Senate race against Senator RAPHAEL WARNOCK, by lifting spirits and stirring up nostalgia just in time for the most famous Bulldog ever to ask for votes.”
BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE
HOW WE GOT HERE — “Gerrymandering, hubris and court fights: How redistricting shaped the battle for the House,” by Jessica Piper
CAROLINA IN MY MIND — “His Anti-KKK Ad Went Viral. His Congressional Campaign Did Not,” by Brakkton Booker in Lumberton, N.C.: State Rep. CHARLES GRAHAM “likes to say that he’s running as a nonpartisan — and indeed, neither his campaign literature nor his ads mention his party affiliation. But he’s facing off against the incumbent, Republican DAVID ROUZER, who stumped with former President Donald Trump six weeks ago in the district Graham is hoping to flip back to blue. Rouzer’s got a war chest of $1.3 million — roughly four times that of Graham’s. Graham will tell you that he’s running on a shoestring, with little to no help from his party. And he’s not kidding: When a POLITICO journalist followed him on Twitter, he slid into her DMs to ask for donations.”
YOU’RE ON YOUR OWN, KID — “Democrats said they’d help NY’s Max Rose get his House seat back. Now he’s flying solo,” by Erin Durkin: “Democrats are clinging to control of the House, but the party has barely lifted a finger to help the Staten Island moderate reclaim his old seat from New York City’s lone Republican member of Congress. Not that he wants to be associated with the Democratic committee, as he courts the city’s most fortified conservative bastion.”
BRINGING HOME THE BACON — “What headwinds? Dems still trying to cook Don Bacon in Nebraska,” by Jordain Carney in Omaha, Neb.: “[GOP Rep. DON] BACON has held the perennially competitive district since 2017. But Democrats point to a couple reasons they could flip a seat that’s eluded them: the historic split of Nebraska’s electoral college votes in 2020 — with one going to President Joe Biden, the other four to former President Donald Trump — as well as fallout from the Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade reversal.”
THE TOLEDO WAR — Dueling profiles from the Toledo Blade’s Trevor Hubert: “40 years in, Marcy Kaptur isn’t slowing down amid her toughest reelection bid yet” … “J.R. Majewski hopes to break through for GOP victory in 9th District”
BATTLE FOR THE STATES
ABORTION ON THE BALLOT — “In Kentucky, conservatives warn of ‘Roe v. Wade 2.0,’” by Alice Miranda Ollstein in Louisville, Ky.: “Kentucky, which has a near-total abortion ban in place with no exemptions for rape or incest, will be the first state in the South to vote on an abortion-rights ballot initiative since the Supreme Court overturned the 50-year precedent in June. The ballot measure, nearly identical to one Kansans rejected in August, asks voters whether the state constitution should say there is no protection for abortion rights and prohibit taxpayer spending on the procedure.”
BIG READ ON BIG GRETCH — “Gretchen Whitmer Is Both Loved And Hated In Michigan — And Still ‘Fighting Like Hell,’” by HuffPost’s Jonathan Cohn in Detroit, Mich.: “[Gov. GRETCHEN] WHITMER has a flair for retail politics that even her adversaries acknowledge. She can point to bipartisan legislative accomplishments as well as evidence that her actions on COVID ultimately saved many thousands of lives. She’s also built a devoted following among voters who have come to see her as somebody who thinks and talks like they do, and will protect them fiercely when their interests, freedoms or very lives are in jeopardy.”
NAIL-BITER IN JAYHAWK COUNTRY — “Kansas governor’s race is close after abortion upheaval,” by AP’s John Hanna
A DIFFERENT KIND OF PORTLAND TRAILBLAZER — “Tina Kotek’s historic campaign meets Oregon at a crossroads,” by WaPo’s Anne Branigin
CASH SPLASHER — “Ronald Lauder: New York’s Billionaire Political Disrupter,” by NYT’s Nicholas Fandos and Dana Rubinstein: “As a lead donor to two super PACs, he has spent more than $11 million to date trying to put Representative LEE ZELDIN, a Trump-aligned Republican, in the governor’s mansion. Millions of dollars more, some of it not previously reported, have gone to successful legal and public relations campaigns to stop Democrats from gerrymandering the state’s congressional districts.”
HOT ADS
Via Steve Shepard
— Georgia:The latest ad from the Senate Majority PAC-affiliated group Georgia Honor continues to hit Republican HERSCHEL WALKER on his history of domestic violence and falsehoods — but adds a new line of argument to the mix: “Walker has shown over and over he’s uninformed and ill-prepared,” says a narrator, adding this tagline: “Lies. Violence. Unprepared. Should Herschel Walker represent you?”
— Wisconsin: Democratic Gov. TONY EVERS puts Republican TIM MICHELS’ recent comments — unearthed last week by The Washington Post — that “Republicans will never lose another election” if he’s elected governor — into a late 15-second ad. “Did you know Tim Michels pledged to rig future elections?” a narrator asks. “He’ll try to overthrow the will of the people.”
— New Hampshire:A late contrast ad from Democratic Sen. MAGGIE HASSAN calls GOP candidate DON BOLDUC “a committed election denier who would also make abortion illegal” and “end Social Security and Medicare as we know it. It’s true. All while Maggie Hassan earns the ranking as America’s most bipartisan senator.”
— Missouri: Few are giving Democratic Senate candidate TRUDY BUSCH VALENTINE a chance on Tuesday, and her new ad not-so-subtly reveals a last-ditch strategy: Though the ad paints Republican ERIC SCHMITT and Libertarian JONATHAN DINE as “two bad choices for Missouri,” the negatives about Schmitt (“soft on China”) are aimed at reducing his support among GOP voters, while the hits on Dine (“extremely conservative,” “wants to abolish the IRS,” “wants to stop all new spending”) are designed to boost his platform and siphon conservative voters away from Schmitt.
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SUNDAY BEST …
— DCCC Chair SEAN PATRICK MALONEY (D-N.Y.) on what constitutes a good night for Democrats on Tuesday, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “We’re going to hold this majority. That constitutes a good night.”
On how much blame is on Biden: “I think the president gets a bum rap.”
On Dems’ message for voters: “We’re not perfect, but we are responsible adults who didn’t attack the Capitol on Jan. 6, didn’t try to whitewash it.”
— NRSC Chair RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) on whether Republicans will accept election results, on “Meet the Press”: “Absolutely. But what we’re also going to do is do everything we can to make sure they’re free and fair, and if there’s any shenanigans, we are ready to make sure. We support our candidates to make sure that these elections are fair and every ballot is counted the right way.”
— RNC Chair RONNA McDANIEL on voter intimidation, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “I don’t think that should be done at all. Also, don’t intimidate our poll watchers, because we’re having that right now too, where our poll watchers are not being allowed to meaningfully observe.”
On whether Republicans should accept election results: “Listen, you should have a recount. You should have a canvass. And it’ll go to the courts, and then everybody should accept the results.”
On when she would like Trump to announce a 2024 reelection bid: “I’m only focused on 2022. I — my mind can’t even go there. I don’t even know what I’m doing for Thanksgiving right now, let alone thinking about 2024.”
— Sen. AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-Minn.) on whether Democrats will share blame if election deniers they boosted in the primaries win, on “State of the Union”: “I’m not going back over past strategy right now, two days before the election. I am one that — I’m not a big fan of spending money on other candidates and messing around. I will admit that, and I have said that. But what I think here is, you have got a clear choice.”
— House Majority Whip JIM CLYBURN (D-S.C.) on Democrats boosting election deniers in primaries, on “Fox News Sunday”: “I believe that you should always try to best position yourself to win in the general election. I’m not a proponent of that process. I understand it takes place on both sides. But I’m just not a proponent of it, but I can understand it.”
— Oklahoma GOP Gov. KEVIN STITT on why his race is tight, on “Fox News Sunday”: “We think the silent majority are going to come out and we’re going to have a great night on Tuesday night. But the reason it’s a tight race is because there’s been unprecedented dollars spent against me, to the tune of $50 million to spread lies and chaos.”
TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.
BIDEN’S SUNDAY:
3:50 p.m.: The president will depart New Castle, Del., en route to Westchester County, N.Y.
6 p.m.: Biden will participate in a political event.
7:50 p.m.: Biden will depart Westchester County to return to the White House.
VP KAMALA HARRIS’ SUNDAY (all times Eastern):
10:35 a.m.: The vice president will depart D.C. en route to Chicago, Ill.
1:50 p.m.: Harris will deliver remarks at a political event.
3:40 p.m.: Harris will deliver remarks at a rally for Illinois Democrats.
4:55 p.m.: Harris will depart Chicago en route to Los Angeles, where she will remain overnight.
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PHOTO OF THE DAY
Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, former President Barack Obama, Pennsylvania AG Josh Shapiro and President Joe Biden join hands at a campaign rally in Philadelphia on Saturday, Nov. 5. | Francis Chung/E&E News/POLITICO
6 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR
1. THE SAUDI SHUFFLE: “Biden’s ‘consequences’ for Saudi Arabia are reaping quiet results,” by WaPo’s Karen DeYoung: “Many lawmakers, some of whom have long advocated cutting ties with the Saudis, reacted with even greater umbrage, calling for the immediate withdrawal of thousands of U.S. troops stationed in the kingdom and a stop to all arms sales, among other punitive measures.
“But the White House, as it considers how to make good on Biden’s ‘consequences’ pledge and despite its ongoing anger, has become uneasy over the reaction its sharp response has provoked at home. Rather than moving quickly to respond, it is playing for time, looking for ways to bring the Saudis back in line while preserving strong bilateral security ties.”
2. CHECKING IN AT THE WHITE HOUSE:
— At home: “Biden’s alliance with the left has worked, but will it last?” by AP’s Farnoush Amiri and Seung Min Kim: “The dynamic between Biden and the liberal flank of his party is one that lawmakers insist will end up uniting Democrats behind Biden, even as some openly say they don’t want him to run for reelection and others complain the president is too prone to compromise.”
— And abroad: “At global summits, Biden aims to assert America’s leadership,” by AP’s Zeke Miller and Seung Min Kim: “The foreign policy challenges that have helped define Biden’s first two years in office -– Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the increasing influence of China -– will be on full display at a pair of summits in [Southeast Asia].” … “COP27 showcases U.S.-China climate action rivalry,” by Phelim Kine
3. 2024 WATCH: GOP megadonor KEN GRIFFINsits down with our colleague Shia Kapos in Miami: “During an interview in his temporary offices in downtown Miami, detailing how he directs his political contributions, Griffin told POLITICO that he’s prepared to back [Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS] if he runs for the White House. Griffin was the leading donor to DeSantis’ reelection campaign this cycle, dropping $5 million.” What Griffin said: “Would I support him? The bigger question is, is he going to run? That bridge has to be crossed.”
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4. WAR IN UKRAINE: “U.S. privately asks Ukraine to show it’s open to negotiate with Russia,” by WaPo’s Missy Ryan, John Hudson and Paul Sonne
— “West Sees Little Choice but to Keep Backing Ukraine,” by WSJ’s Laurence Norman
5. BOOK CLUB: “Michelle Obama, Mike Pence Books Square Off as Publishers Hope for a Holiday Jolt,” by WSJ’s Jeffrey Trachtenberg: “Mrs. Obama and Mr. Pence will square off in bookstores a week after the midterm elections, with books tackling very different topics.”
6. MEDIAWATCH: “How Molly Jong-Fast Tweeted Her Way to Liberal Media Stardom,” by NYT’s Michael Grynbaum: “Her rise is a testament to the power of social media, the increasingly blurred lines between armchair pundits and professional commentators, and the opportunism of writers, on the right and the left, who used Donald Trump’s presidency to reinvent themselves. It’s about the flight to ideological comfort among news consumers in a partisan era. But it’s also about Ms. Jong-Fast and her ability to win friends, wear her privilege lightly and help anxious liberals cope with a chaotic moment.”
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IN MEMORIAM — “Romano Mazzoli, Who Oversaw Major Immigration Reform, Dies at 89,” by NYT’s Clay Risen: “Mr. Mazzoli was a five-term backbencher in the House of Representatives in 1980 when he took over as chairman of the Subcommittee on Immigration, Refugees and International Law after his predecessor, Elizabeth Holtzman of New York, left the House for a Senate run that proved unsuccessful. He then reached across the Capitol — and across the aisle — to his counterpart in the Senate, Alan K. Simpson, about making fundamental changes to the creaking U.S. immigration system.”
OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the Resilience Party for the Duke of Edinburgh Award USA, celebrating youth from 16 states and their achievements earning the Gold Award, hosted by financial services firm Alvarez and Marsal on their rooftop on Friday night: Prince Edward, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Andy Moffit, Education Secretary Miguel Cardona, Thurgood Marshall Jr., Teddi Marshall, Carlos Guiterrez, John Danielson, Susan Eisenhower, Mindy Berry, Leslie Norwalk,Eric and Lara Major, Buffy Higgins-Beard, Ryan Ruskin, Sheila Nix, Jodi Grant and Courtney Chapin.
— SPOTTED at a World Central Kitchen fundraiser, food and wine event at the Four Seasons on Saturday night: José Andrés,Michael Mina, Christian and Meg Clerc, Kara Swisher and Amanda Katz, John McCarthy, Dmitri Alperovitch and Maureen Hinman, Marc Adelman, Stephanie Ruhle, Josh Dawsey, Tammy Haddad, Evan Hollander and Eli Yokley, Mark Shriver, Elise Labott, Ali Rubin, Dominique Crenn, David Gregory and Beth Wilkinson, Jeff Mason and Marc Bromley.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. John Carter (R-Texas) … POLITICO’s Louis Nelson, Kristin Crofts and Derrick Perry … Eric Schulze … ABC’s Trish Turner … American Red Cross’ Eric Mondero … Katie Rosborough … JoJo Sears … Rachel Weiss of Arnold Ventures … Locust Street Group’s Blair Gremillion … NBC’s Gresham Striegel … ACOG’s Rachel Kingery … Whitney Mitchell Brennan of Honeywell … Rick Nussio … … Rob Jesmer of FP1 Strategies and Plus Communications … Austin Keyser of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers … Suzanne Granville … former Social Security Administration Commissioner Andrew Saul … Ashley Lewis of Edelman … Diana Banister … former Education Secretary Arne Duncan … Sidney Blumenthal … former Rep. Dan Donovan (R-N.Y.) … Dan Senor
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