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The COVID-19 pandemic has been going on for almost two and a half years, and the world has started to enter the post-pandemic phase. While economic activities have resumed under the new normal procedures, the road to a full recovery is still very challenging. As a developing economy, Indonesia is prone to spillover effects from exit policies in advanced economies. Several externalities and key factors could significantly affect the government’s efforts to ensure a sustainable economic revival.
As an emerging and developing economy, Indonesia faces a challenging situation in dealing with its post-pandemic fiscal situation. Just like the many other countries that have had to tackle the health crisis over the past two years, Indonesia needs to support the well-being of its citizens by providing pandemic social assistance. This has caused a significant rise in government expenditures and is affecting fiscal conditions.
The situation is worsened by the externalities of the Russia–Ukraine war, which has caused global supply chain disruptions and rising commodity prices. Other factors such as global inflationary pressures and rising interest rates could lead to stagflation and increasing costs of funds. According to a Bloomberg survey, several countries, including advanced economies, have been indicated to be prone to recession, such as Sri Lanka, the United States, New Zealand, South Korea, Japan and China.
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